St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees Final Score and Odds Recap, August 4, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cardinals | +1.5 — | O 6.5 1%1% | 1% | 1% Kalshi |
Yankees | -1.5 — | U 6.5 — | 99% | 99% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis Cardinals | +1.5 — | O 6.5 | 1% Kalshi | |
New York Yankees | -1.5 — | U 6.5 — | 99% Kalshi |
The prediction market had this one right. New York was a 62c home favorite before first pitch (61c on Kalshi, 62c on Polymarket) against St. Louis at 40c, and the Yankees won 2-0 at Yankee Stadium on August 4, 2026. Two solo home runs supplied all of the scoring, the Yankees run line at -1.5 covered on the exact margin, and every full-game total on the board settled under. The moneyline finished at 100c New York on both books across roughly $1.5M in combined volume.
New York beat St. Louis 2-0 on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, and the market that priced the Yankees at 62c collected. That is the soft end of favorite pricing, a shade better than 3-to-2, and the game delivered the low-variance version of exactly that read: two solo home runs, six scoreless innings from the starter, three more shutout innings from the bullpen, and zero St. Louis runs across nine. The Yankees moneyline settled at 100c on both Kalshi and Polymarket, the Cardinals side at 0c, on a board that carried about $1.5M in combined volume.
Cardinals vs Yankees Market Read Before First Pitch
The Cardinals vs Yankees pregame board had New York at 61c on Kalshi and 62c on Polymarket, with St. Louis at 40c. Kalshi's two sides summed to 101c, a 1c vig, which is about as tight as a regular-season MLB board prices. Our snapshot series shows the Yankees drifting from 61c to 65c on Kalshi through the afternoon while the Cardinals side slid from 40c to 36c on Polymarket, so money moved toward the home team into the game and was paid for it.
A 62c home favorite is a discounted price for a first-place-adjacent team hosting a sub-.500 opponent, and the discount was injury-driven. Aaron Judge has been out since early June with a stress fracture in his right first rib and has no return date. Cody Bellinger landed on the injured list on July 27 with a Grade 2 hamstring strain and a four-to-six week timeline, putting his return in late August or early September. The Yankees also went into August as the American League's biggest futures faller: their World Series price dropped from 14c to 10c on Kalshi and 14c to 11c on Polymarket around the deadline, and their AL pennant price fell from 26c to 21c on Kalshi and 27c to 21c on Polymarket, the largest AL decline of that week. Our MLB deadline odds breakdown covers that move in full. The Cardinals came in as deadline sellers at 56-57, which is why the game still priced the Yankees as a clear favorite despite the futures slide.
How the Cardinals vs Yankees Game Played Out
Ryan Weathers gave the Yankees 6.0 innings of four-hit, no-run baseball with six strikeouts and one walk on 88 pitches, and took the win to move to 5-7 with a 3.79 ERA. Hunter Dobbins matched him for most of the night, going 6.1 innings with four hits, three walks and four strikeouts, and both runs he allowed left the yard. Jazz Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (397 feet) in the second, and George Lombard Jr. homered to left center (392 feet) in the fifth in his major league debut. That was the entire scoreboard.
The New York bullpen closed it without incident: Fernando Cruz, Brent Headrick and David Bednar combined for 3.0 scoreless innings, with Bednar striking out three in 1.1 innings for his 25th save at a 2.54 ERA. St. Louis put six hits on the board and never scored, and neither team committed an error in front of 41,081 at Yankee Stadium.
The derivative markets landed exactly where the box score put them. Yankees -1.5 settled at 99c on Kalshi and 100c on Polymarket, covering on the minimum two-run margin, so a one-run New York win would have flipped that line. Every full-game total settled under, all the way down to Over 2.5 runs at 1c, on a board that had listed totals from 4.5 through 9.5. The first-inning run market settled no, and the first-five-innings total of 2.5 also settled under, with both Yankees runs falling inside that window. Player props tracked the box score line for line: Weathers over 5.5 strikeouts settled yes on six, Dobbins over 3.5 strikeouts settled yes on four, and Chisholm cleared 0.5 home runs but not 1.5. There was no listed market on Lombard, who had no big league track record to price the morning he debuted.
The result left the Yankees at 64-50, 3.5 games behind Tampa Bay (67-46) in the AL East, with Boston at 61-51 and riding a six-game winning streak. St. Louis fell to 56-58, 14.5 games behind Milwaukee (70-43) in the NL Central. The three-game series was tied 1-1 heading into the August 5 finale.
How the Cardinals vs Yankees Market Resolved
The moneyline settled to New York as the winner of the completed game, paying $1 per Yankees share and $0 per Cardinals share on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Spread contracts settled off the two-run final margin, totals settled off the two combined runs, and player props settled off the official MLB box score. The board is now fully resolved and reads 100c and 0c rather than a tradeable price, so the numbers on this page describe a closed market, not a live one. The August 5 finale is the active board for this series.
Key Cardinals vs Yankees Takeaways
Favorite held: New York priced at 62c pregame (61c Kalshi, 62c Polymarket) and won, with the line drifting to 65c on Kalshi before first pitch.
Starter carried it: Ryan Weathers threw 6.0 shutout innings with six strikeouts and one walk on 88 pitches.
Two swings decided it: Jazz Chisholm Jr. and George Lombard Jr. hit the only runs of the game, both solo home runs, with Lombard's coming in his debut.
Run line covered on the number: Yankees -1.5 settled at 99c Kalshi and 100c Polymarket on the exact two-run margin.
Total went well under: every full-game over settled at 1c or lower, including Over 2.5 runs.
Injuries still cap the price: Judge (rib stress fracture) and Bellinger (Grade 2 hamstring) were both out, which is the main reason a first-division home team priced at 62c rather than the low 70s.
Related Cardinals vs Yankees Markets
The August 5 series finale is the live board with the series tied 1-1, and the August 3 opener is the game St. Louis took to set up this one. Team-level pricing across the rest of the schedule sits on the New York Yankees hub and the St. Louis Cardinals hub, and every game trading today is on MLB today.
Resolution Criteria
This market resolved on August 4, 2026, when the New York Yankees beat the St. Louis Cardinals 2-0 at Yankee Stadium and the game was declared final after nine innings. Moneyline contracts settled to New York, paying $1 per Yankees share and $0 per Cardinals share on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Spread contracts settled off the final two-run margin, so Yankees -1.5 paid and every other spread line paid $0. Totals settled off the two combined runs, so every full-game over from 2.5 runs upward resolved no. Player props and inning-specific markets settled off the official MLB box score, and both platforms finalized once the game entered final status on its scheduled date. A postponement or a suspended game would have pushed settlement to the completion date under each platform's own game rules, which did not apply here.
Key Factors
- Yankees priced at 62c pregame (61c Kalshi, 62c Polymarket) and the favorite held in a 2-0 win
- Ryan Weathers threw 6.0 shutout innings with 6 strikeouts and 1 walk on 88 pitches
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. and George Lombard Jr. supplied all the scoring with solo home runs in the 2nd and 5th
- Yankees -1.5 covered on the exact two-run margin, settling 99c Kalshi and 100c Polymarket
- Every full-game total settled under, including Over 2.5 runs at 1c
- Aaron Judge (rib stress fracture) and Cody Bellinger (Grade 2 hamstring) were both out, capping the pregame price
Who won the Cardinals vs Yankees game on August 4, 2026?
The New York Yankees won 2-0 at Yankee Stadium. Ryan Weathers took the win with 6.0 shutout innings, Hunter Dobbins took the loss, and David Bednar recorded his 25th save.
What was the final score and how were the runs scored?
Yankees 2, Cardinals 0. Jazz Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (397 feet) in the second inning and George Lombard Jr. homered to left center (392 feet) in the fifth inning of his major league debut. St. Louis had six hits and no runs.
What were the Cardinals vs Yankees odds before the game?
New York was a 62c favorite, priced at 61c on Kalshi and 62c on Polymarket, with St. Louis at 40c. The Yankees line drifted up to 65c on Kalshi during the afternoon of August 4, 2026.
Did the Yankees cover the run line and did the total go over?
Yankees -1.5 covered on the exact two-run margin and settled at 99c on Kalshi and 100c on Polymarket. The total went well under, with every full-game over from 2.5 runs upward settling at 1c or lower.
How did the Cardinals vs Yankees market settle?
The moneyline settled at 100c New York and 0c St. Louis on both Kalshi and Polymarket after the game went final on August 4, 2026, across roughly $1.5M in combined volume on the board.
What should I watch after this Cardinals vs Yankees game?
The series finale on August 5, 2026 with the series tied 1-1, plus the return timelines for Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger, which are the main inputs into a Yankees AL pennant price that fell to 21c around the trade deadline.