Cavaliers vs Thunder Prediction Market Odds, November 4, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Main ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Cavaliers | +2.5 47%52% | O 232.5 45% | 45%45% | 45% Kalshi |
â–¶Thunder | -2.5 53%48% | U 232.5 55% | 57%45% | 57% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Main ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Cleveland Cavaliers | +2.5 | O 232.5 | 45% Kalshi | |
â–¶Oklahoma City Thunder | -2.5 | U 232.5 | 57% Kalshi |
No player props available for this game.
Oklahoma City is a modest home favorite in Cavaliers vs Thunder: as of November 3 the Thunder trade at 56c on Kalshi, where the moneyline trades only, after Cleveland slid from 54c to the mid-40s overnight. The Thunder (5-2) won 117-112 at Cleveland on Monday and are 3-0 at home despite five players listed out; the Cavaliers are 4-3. Tip-off is 8:00 PM ET on November 4, 2026, at Paycom Center.
Cavaliers vs Thunder is the second half of a two-game set: Oklahoma City won 117-112 at Cleveland on Monday, and the teams meet again two nights later at Paycom Center. The prediction market has made the Thunder a modest home favorite, and the board carries about $20.1K in volume as of November 3.
Cavaliers vs Thunder Odds and Market Context
As of November 3 the moneyline trades on Kalshi only: Thunder 56c, Cavaliers 46c. The repricing since Monday is the story. At about 11:00 AM ET Monday, before the first game, Kalshi had Cleveland as the slight favorite at 53c with Oklahoma City at 51c. The price stayed near even through Monday night, then turned early Tuesday: the Cavaliers fell from 54c at about 12:05 AM ET to 45c by about 3:00 AM ET, and the Thunder rose to 55c to 58c through Tuesday morning. ESPN logged day-to-day designations for two Cleveland wings at about 12:29 AM ET. That is a 7c to 9c swing in Oklahoma City's favor in the captures we hold, which run from Monday morning to late Tuesday morning.
ESPN's matchup predictor gives Oklahoma City 62%, about 6 points above the 56c Kalshi price, so the market is less confident in the Thunder than ESPN's model is. The alternate markets price a close game. Oklahoma City -2.5 trades at 53c on Kalshi, -1.5 at 58c and -3.5 at 51c, which centers the margin near 3 points; Polymarket lists the -2.5 rung at 48c. On the total, over 228.5 points is 52c and over 230.5 is 50c on Kalshi, so the market centers the game near 230. Monday's game finished with 229 points.
Cavaliers vs Thunder Form and Injuries
Oklahoma City is 5-2 (3-0 at home, 2-2 on the road) per ESPN. It beat the Clippers 108-101 and Phoenix 125-114 at home, lost at Dallas 120-96 and at Houston 119-98, then won Monday at Cleveland. The Cavaliers are 4-3 (3-1 at home, 1-2 on the road); before Monday's loss they had beaten Minnesota 127-125 in overtime, Washington 121-111 and Milwaukee 136-111, with a 114-111 loss at Atlanta. Oklahoma City leads the season series 1-0. Neither team played Tuesday.
The Thunder are winning short-handed. ESPN lists Chet Holmgren (knee), Jalen Williams (leg), Cason Wallace (shoulder), Alex Caruso (ankle) and Thomas Sorber (knee) out as of November 3, with projected returns for Holmgren in January and for Williams and Wallace in March. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads Oklahoma City at 28.4 points per game and Isaiah Hartenstein at 9.9 rebounds. For Cleveland, ESPN lists Peyton Watson (hamstring) and Jaylon Tyson (ankle) as day-to-day. Donovan Mitchell leads the Cavaliers at 21.9 points, James Harden at 6.3 assists and Jarrett Allen at 8.7 rebounds. Seven games is a small sample, but the Thunder's 3-0 home record is what the home price leans on.
When the Cavaliers vs Thunder Market Resolves
The moneyline settles on the official winner of the Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder game scheduled for 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, at Paycom Center, with overtime included. Spread and total contracts settle on the official final score once the game goes final.
Key Cavaliers vs Thunder Catalysts
- Rematch: Oklahoma City won 117-112 at Cleveland on Monday, and the venue now flips to Paycom Center.
- Overnight swing: Cleveland slid from 54c to 45c on Kalshi early Tuesday while the Thunder climbed to 55c to 58c.
- Thunder absences: Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso and Thomas Sorber are listed out, per ESPN as of November 3.
- Cavaliers status: Peyton Watson and Jaylon Tyson are listed day-to-day.
- Total: the market centers near 230 points, one point above Monday's 229.
Related Cavaliers vs Thunder Markets
A two-game set between a 5-2 team and a 4-3 team feeds directly into the conference and title futures. Follow the NBA Finals 2027 odds, the Western Conference champion market and the Eastern Conference champion market. The Oklahoma City Thunder hub and Cleveland Cavaliers hub collect every live market for each team, and the NBA hub lists the rest of Wednesday's slate.
Resolution Criteria
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder game scheduled for 8:00 PM ET on November 4, 2026, at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, including overtime, and pays $1 per winning share on Kalshi. Spread and total points contracts settle on the official final score, overtime included. If the game is postponed or canceled, each venue settles under its own posted contract rules.
Key Factors
- Oklahoma City won 117-112 at Cleveland on Monday; the rematch moves to Paycom Center
- Cleveland slid from 54c to 45c on Kalshi early Tuesday as the Thunder climbed to 55c to 58c
- Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso and Thomas Sorber listed out, per ESPN as of November 3
- Peyton Watson and Jaylon Tyson listed day-to-day for Cleveland
- The total centers near 230 points, one above Monday's 229
What are the Cavaliers vs Thunder odds?
As of November 3, 2026, Oklahoma City is 56c and Cleveland 46c on Kalshi, about a 56% implied chance of a Thunder win. The moneyline on this board trades on Kalshi only.
What time does Cavaliers vs Thunder tip off?
Tip-off is 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, per the ESPN scoreboard.
Where can I trade the Cavaliers vs Thunder game?
The moneyline, spread and total trade on Kalshi, and Polymarket lists Oklahoma City spread rungs including -2.5 at 48c as of November 3.
Who won the last Cavaliers vs Thunder game?
Oklahoma City won 117-112 at Cleveland on Monday, November 2, 2026, and leads the season series 1-0, per ESPN.
What are the Cavaliers vs Thunder spread and total?
As of November 3, Oklahoma City -2.5 is 53c on Kalshi and over 228.5 points is 52c, so the market expects a Thunder win by about 3 in a game near 230 points.
What should I watch before Cavaliers vs Thunder settles?
Watch the status of Peyton Watson and Jaylon Tyson, both day-to-day for Cleveland as of November 3. The market settles when the game goes final on November 4, 2026.