| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
State | +8.5 — | O 54.5 — | 0% | — |
Memphis | -8.5 — | U 54.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Arkansas State | +8.5 — | O 54.5 — | 0% | — |
Memphis | -8.5 — | U 54.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
Memphis opens its home schedule as a firm but not overwhelming favorite against Arkansas State, priced at 80c on Kalshi as of September 2, 2026 with the Red Wolves at 21c. Memphis went 8-5 in 2025 and beat UNLV 27-21 in Charles Huff's debut while giving up 460 yards; Arkansas State finished 7-6 and won its bowl 34-28 over Missouri State, and opens 2026 here with no publicly named starting quarterback. The board carries $52.1K in lifetime volume across 111 Kalshi lines, with the spread ladder pricing Memphis near 10.5 points. Kickoff is 7:00 PM ET Saturday at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium on ESPN+.
Memphis hosts Arkansas State on Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET in the Paint Bucket Bowl, and the prediction market prices it as a firm home favorite spot rather than a mismatch. Memphis sits at 80c on Kalshi as of September 2, 2026 with Arkansas State at 21c, and the board has drawn $52.1K in lifetime volume across 111 Kalshi lines. The moneyline is the least interesting number on it. The spread ladder prices Memphis about a point shorter than the sportsbook consensus, and Arkansas State walks in with zero 2026 snaps on tape at the one position that decides games like this.
Memphis finished 2025 at 8-5 and did it backwards, winning eight of its first nine before dropping the last four: 38-32 to Tulane, 31-27 at East Carolina, 28-17 to Navy, and 31-7 to NC State in the bowl. Ryan Silverfield left for Arkansas after that, and Charles Huff took over as first-year head coach, his third program in three seasons after Marshall from 2021 through 2024 and Southern Miss in 2025. The Tigers opened 2026 with a 27-21 win at UNLV on August 29, which is the entire 2026 data set both the market and this page are working from.
That opener is a split reading. Memphis produced 418 total yards, 195 of them on the ground, and quarterback Marcus Stokes went 15 of 26 for 223 yards and 2 touchdowns in his first FBS start. Stokes arrived from West Florida, a Division II program, where he was a Harlon Hill Award finalist, and he beat out South Carolina transfer Air Noland for the job. Jaylin Carter carried 15 times for 97 yards and a score. The defense is the problem: UNLV moved for 460 total yards, 291 of them through the air, and Memphis still needed to hold on at 27-21. A team that wins by six while surrendering 460 yards is not a team the market should be laying two touchdowns with, and it is not.
Arkansas State went 7-6 in 2025 under Butch Jones, now in his sixth season, and closed better than it started. The Red Wolves lost four straight in September, then went 5-2 the rest of the way including a 15-14 win at South Alabama, a 23-10 win at Troy, a 30-29 win at App State, and a 34-28 bowl win over Missouri State. This is their season opener, so they have no 2026 form at all and ESPN lists them 0-0.
The quarterback is the open question and the reason the underdog price is 21c rather than lower. Three-year starter Jaylen Raynor transferred to Iowa State, and Arkansas State carried four quarterbacks through camp without a publicly named starter. What returns is skill talent: wide receiver Chauncy Cobb and running back Kenyon Clay both made the preseason All-Sun Belt first team offense. A Sun Belt offense with two first-team skill players facing a defense that just gave up 291 passing yards is a live matchup even if the man handing the ball off is unproven.
The moneyline pays for the headline; the derivative markets carry the volume and the actual information. Memphis at 80c has drawn $13.1K in lifetime volume and Arkansas State at 21c another $5.3K, so the two-sided moneyline accounts for roughly $18.4K of the board's $52.1K. The single busiest line on the entire board is not on the moneyline at all: Memphis minus 9.5 has traded $12.4K by itself, priced at 55c.
Walk the ladder and the market's real number appears. Memphis minus 9.5 is 55c, minus 10.5 is 52c, and minus 11.5 is 49c, which puts the coin-flip point right around 10.5 to 11. DraftKings posts Memphis minus 11.5 with the moneyline at -470. Kalshi is therefore pricing a slightly shorter Memphis win margin than the sportsbook, and the 80c moneyline sits below the -470 implied number and above ESPN's matchup predictor, which gives Memphis a 76.1% game projection. Three independent estimates land between 76% and 82%, which is about as tight a consensus as a Week 2 game with one team at zero snaps produces.
The total is the cleaner agreement. Over 53.5 points is 47c with $7.9K traded, Over 50.5 is 55c, and Over 55.5 is 40c, which puts the market's fair total near 52. DraftKings has it at 52.5. The Memphis opener scored 48 combined points, and the defensive numbers on both sides argue up rather than down. Over 47.5 at 64c is the price of believing this stays a normal Group of Five shootout.
On line movement, this board carries roughly a day of snapshot history and no more, so scope any read to that window. Memphis on the moneyline traded in a one cent band between 80c and 81c from September 1 through midday September 2 and sits at 80c. Arkansas State moved 22c to 21c across the same window. The Memphis minus 9.5 spread held at 55c across all 11 captures. The one line with real direction is the total: Over 53.5 opened the observed series at 45c late on September 1 and printed 47c by midday September 2, a 2c drift toward points. That is a day of captures, not an open-to-now move, and nothing beyond that window exists on the board.
One coverage note that matters for reading the board honestly: every line here is Kalshi. Polymarket has no leg on this game, platform_count is 1, and polymarket_price is null on all 111 lines. This is a single-book market, not a cross-platform consensus, and the prices should be read as one exchange's view.
The market resolves on the final score of the September 5, 2026 game at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee, scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on ESPN+. The moneyline pays the team that wins the game, the spread contracts settle against the final margin, and the total and team-total contracts settle against points actually scored, overtime included, per Kalshi rules. Kalshi settles from the official final score once the game is declared complete, typically within hours of the finish. A postponement moves settlement to the rescheduled completion date; a game canceled outright or not completed voids under platform-specific rules rather than paying either side.
Memphis's only 2026 result to date trades on the Memphis vs UNLV board, the game that produced every Tigers number on this page. Team-level markets for both sides live at the Memphis hub and the Arkansas State hub. For a same-day Sun Belt team stepping up in class, the Texas State vs Texas board is the extreme version of this shape, and East Carolina vs Alabama prices another American Conference team on the road the same afternoon. The full slate of college football boards is at the NCAA Football hub.
Resolves on the final score of the Arkansas State at Memphis game scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, September 5, 2026 at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee, broadcast on ESPN+. The moneyline contracts pay $1 per share to the team that wins the game and $0 to the other side. Spread contracts settle against the final margin of victory, and full-game total and team-total contracts settle against points actually scored, overtime included. Kalshi settles from the official final score once the game is declared complete, normally within hours of the finish. If the game is postponed, settlement moves to the date the game is completed; if it is canceled or never completed, contracts void under platform-specific rules rather than paying either side.
As of September 2, 2026, Memphis is 80c on Kalshi and Arkansas State is 21c on the moneyline. The board has traded $52.1K in lifetime volume across 111 lines, with $13.1K on the Memphis side and $5.3K on Arkansas State.
Kalshi only. All 111 lines on this board are Kalshi contracts and Polymarket has no leg on the game, so the platform count is 1. Read these prices as a single exchange's view rather than a cross-platform consensus.
Memphis, at 80c on September 2, 2026, which is roughly an 80% implied chance. DraftKings has Memphis at -470 on the moneyline and ESPN's matchup predictor gives the Tigers a 76.1% game projection, so three independent estimates cluster between 76% and 82%.
Kalshi's ladder puts the coin-flip point near Memphis minus 10.5, with minus 9.5 at 55c, minus 10.5 at 52c and minus 11.5 at 49c on September 2, 2026. DraftKings posts Memphis minus 11.5. The total sits near 52, with Over 53.5 at 47c against a DraftKings number of 52.5.
On the final score of the September 5, 2026 game at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, kickoff 7:00 PM ET on ESPN+. Kalshi settles from the official final score once the game is declared complete, normally within hours of the finish.
The Arkansas State starting quarterback announcement, since no starter was publicly named after Jaylen Raynor's transfer to Iowa State, and any move on the spread ladder toward the DraftKings minus 11.5 number. The total already drifted from 45c to 47c on Over 53.5 between September 1 and September 2.