| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
State | +24.5 — | O 31.5 — | 0% | — |
Oregon | -24.5 — | U 31.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Boise State | +24.5 — | O 31.5 — | 0% | — |
Oregon | -24.5 — | U 31.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
Boise State opens its first Pac-12 season at No. 2 Oregon on Saturday, September 5, 2026, a 3:30 PM ET kickoff at Autzen Stadium on CBS. Oregon went 13-2 last season and reached the College Football Playoff semifinal; Boise State went 9-5 and won the Mountain West. The Kalshi board carries roughly $255K in lifetime volume across 102 contracts and prices Oregon at 95c to Boise State's 6c as of September 2, 2026, so the live market is the spread and the total, not the winner.
Boise State opens its first Pac-12 season on the road at No. 2 Oregon, and the Kalshi board treats the result as settled. Oregon trades at 95c and Boise State at 6c as of September 2, 2026, with the full game board carrying roughly $255K in lifetime volume across 102 contracts. The live question is the number, not the winner. Oregon at -24.5 sits at 49c and the game total at 51.5 sits at 49c, which is as close to an even market as this ladder gets. Kickoff is 3:30 PM ET Saturday at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, on CBS.
Oregon finished 13-2 in 2025, going 11-1 in the Big Ten regular season with its only loss a 30-20 home defeat to Indiana on October 11, then beating James Madison 51-34 and Texas Tech 23-0 in the College Football Playoff before Indiana ended the run 56-22 in the semifinal. The Ducks averaged 38.2 points per game and allowed 14.8 across the 12-game regular season. Dan Lanning is in his fifth season with two new coordinators, and redshirt junior Dante Moore returns as the starting quarterback.
Boise State finished 9-5, won the Mountain West title 38-21 over UNLV on December 6, and lost its bowl game to Washington 38-10. Spencer Danielson is in his third full season at 24-8 with three conference titles in three years, and signed an extension through 2030 in April. Maddux Madsen returns at quarterback.
The number that explains this board is Boise State's split. The Broncos scored exactly 7 points in each of their four regular-season losses, against South Florida (34-7), Notre Dame (28-7), Fresno State (30-7) and San Diego State (17-7), and averaged 42.2 points in their nine wins. That is not a team with a flat range of outcomes. It is a team that either scores in the forties or does not clear a touchdown, and which version shows up is decided almost entirely by the defense across from it. Oregon's defense allowed 14.8 per game last season.
The counterweight is recent history in the same building. Boise State lost 37-34 at Autzen on September 8, 2024, covering with room to spare against a similar price. Different rosters on both sides, but the venue and the profile of the matchup are the same.
One structural note on coverage: this is a Kalshi-only board. Platform count is 1 and every line carries a null Polymarket price, so there is no cross-platform consensus here and nothing on this page should be read as a two-book agreement.
The spread ladder runs 23 rungs from Oregon -3.5 at 92c out to Oregon -45.5 at 8c. The money is concentrated where you would expect: Oregon -24.5 carries $16.6K, by far the heaviest rung on the board, and prices at 49c. The rung above it, Oregon -23.5, sits at 53c. DraftKings lists the same game at Oregon -24.5 and opened there, so the exchange and the sportsbook are pricing an identical number rather than a gap worth writing about.
The total ladder runs 77 rungs. Over 51.5 points carries $6.3K at 49c, with Over 50.5 at 53c. DraftKings opened the total at 52.5 and now shows 51.5, a one-point move toward the under that the Kalshi ladder matches.
Team totals reconcile cleanly with the game total, which is a good sign the board is internally consistent rather than stitched together. Oregon over 37.5 points prices at 53c, effectively the Ducks' 2025 scoring average of 38.2. Boise State over 13.5 points prices at 44c, meaning the market leans slightly toward a Boise output below two touchdowns. Add the two implied medians and you land on the 51.5 game total. First-half contracts say the same thing earlier: over 27.5 first-half points is 53c and Oregon leading by more than 14.5 at the break is 48c, so the market expects roughly half the final margin to be on the board by halftime.
On movement, read the capture window before reading anything into flatness. Kalshi snapshots on this board begin September 1 and run through midday September 2, about 24 hours of history, and nothing exists before that. Inside that window the moneyline did not move at all: Oregon printed 95c on all 31 captures and Boise State printed 6c on all 36. Oregon -24.5 traded in a 49 to 50 band across 44 captures and finished the window at 49. Over 51.5 slid from 50c to 49c. The sportsbook drifted marginally more than the exchange over the same stretch, with DraftKings moving Oregon from -3600 to -2400 and Boise State from +1500 to +1200 on the moneyline.
The volume split on the moneyline is the most interesting single fact on the board. The Boise State leg has taken $178.1K of the roughly $255K total, against $37.3K on the Oregon leg. That is not a market fighting over the favorite. On a 6c contract it is size chasing a 16-to-1 payout, which is exactly the flow a body-bag opener attracts and is not evidence the price is wrong.
The moneyline resolves to whichever team wins the game at Autzen Stadium on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Spread contracts settle against the final margin, so Oregon -24.5 pays out only if the Ducks win by 25 or more, and total contracts settle against combined points scored by both teams. First-half contracts settle at the halftime score regardless of what follows. Kalshi settles each contract once the game is final and the result is official, normally within hours of the finish. A postponement or cancellation is handled under the exchange's own event rules rather than by our board.
Boise State's scoring floor: the Broncos scored 7 points in all four 2025 regular-season losses, and the Boise State over 13.5 team total at 44c is the cleanest expression of that risk.
Oregon's defensive baseline: 14.8 points allowed per game in 2025 is what sets the entire under side of this board.
Maddux Madsen's protection: Boise State's four single-touchdown outputs all came against defenses with a real pass rush, which is the direct read-through to the first-half total at 27.5.
The 2024 comparison: Boise State lost 37-34 in this same stadium and covered comfortably, which is the historical argument for the +24.5 side.
Starter workload at Autzen: the gap between the -24.5 rung at 49c and the -30.5 rung at 33c is a bet on whether Oregon's first team is still on the field in the fourth quarter.
Cross-check this board against the Oregon team hub and the Boise State team hub for every other market attached to each program, and against the NCAA Football hub for the full Week 1 slate. Dante Moore's individual case sits on the 2026 Heisman Trophy board, which is the cleanest futures read on how Saturday's performance gets repriced. For a second look at how the market prices a fellow incoming Pac-12 program against a Big Ten opponent on the same weekend, the Fresno State vs USC board runs on the same logic one day earlier.
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon on Saturday, September 5, 2026, with a scheduled 3:30 PM ET kickoff on CBS. Spread contracts settle against the final margin, so Oregon -24.5 pays only on a win by 25 or more points, and Boise State +24.5 pays on any Boise State win or a loss by 24 or fewer. Total contracts settle against combined points scored by both teams, and first-half contracts settle at the halftime score regardless of the final result. Each contract pays $1 per share on the winning side and $0 on the losing side. Kalshi settles once the game is official, normally within hours of the final whistle. Postponement, cancellation or an abandoned game is handled under the exchange's own event rules.
As of September 2, 2026, Kalshi prices Oregon at 95c and Boise State at 6c on the moneyline. The primary spread rung, Oregon -24.5, trades at 49c and the game total of over 51.5 points trades at 49c. Prices move, so the live board above this article is the current read.
It resolves after the game at Autzen Stadium on Saturday, September 5, 2026, with kickoff scheduled for 3:30 PM ET on CBS. Kalshi settles each contract once the result is official, normally within hours of the final whistle.
Kalshi only. All 102 contracts on this board, covering the moneyline, 23 spread rungs and 77 total and team-total rungs, are Kalshi markets with no Polymarket counterpart, so there is no cross-platform price to compare.
Oregon, ranked No. 2, is the favorite at 95c on September 2, 2026, an implied 95% chance of winning. The spread market puts the expected margin near 24.5 points, matching the DraftKings line of Oregon -24.5, and the team totals imply roughly 38 points for Oregon against 13 for Boise State.
Watch the Boise State team total, currently over 13.5 points at 44c, because the Broncos scored exactly 7 points in each of their four 2025 losses and 42.2 per game in their nine wins. Watch the first-half spread at Oregon by more than 14.5 points, priced 48c, for how quickly the market expects the game to be decided.