| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶CARK | — | — | 44% | 44% Kalshi |
▶UTM | — | — | 57% | 57% Kalshi |
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UT Martin is the 57c favorite on Kalshi over Central Arkansas at 44c for Thursday's Week 1 opener at Hardy M. Graham Stadium, a price that lines up almost exactly with the -136 moneyline and 3-point spread sitting at the sportsbooks. The Skyhawks have drifted from 61c since August 25 as the two-sided spread tightened. This is a single-book board with about $2.8K of lifetime volume, so treat the price as thin rather than as a heavily traded consensus.
Central Arkansas opens the 2026 season at UT Martin on Thursday, August 27, and Kalshi prices the home Skyhawks at 57c against 44c for the visiting Bears. The board is one book deep with roughly $2.8K of lifetime volume across the two moneyline contracts, so this is a thin market that moves on small tickets. UT Martin finished 6-6 last season. Central Arkansas finished 3-9.
The board renders the matchup as CARK vs UTM because the engine carries the Kalshi team codes, not full school names. Kalshi's own settlement rules name the game "Central Arkansas vs Tennessee-Martin," and ESPN lists it as Central Arkansas Bears at UT Martin Skyhawks, 7:30 PM ET at Hardy M. Graham Stadium in Martin, Tennessee, on ESPN+. Neither the Kalshi ticker nor the game hub carries a start time, so the ESPN scoreboard is the source for kickoff.
The snapshot series on this board starts August 25. UT Martin opened that series at 61c and has traded down to 57c, a 4c drift toward the visitors over about 24 hours. Central Arkansas ran the other way, peaking at 47c before settling at 44c. The two contracts now sum to 101c against 104c at the open, which is the exchange two-sided spread tightening rather than either side gaining conviction.
Money is lopsided. About $2.5K of the board's $2.8K lifetime volume sits on the UT Martin ticket and only $273 on Central Arkansas. Kalshi shows 3,830 contracts offered at 57c on UT Martin against a 500-contract bid at 56c, so the ask side is deep and the bid side is not. On August 26 the UT Martin contract's rolling 24-hour volume jumped from roughly $424 to roughly $2.4K inside a 20-minute window and the price never left 57c, which tells you the offer absorbed the whole flow.
Sportsbook pricing agrees with the exchange. DraftKings, via the ESPN scoreboard feed, has UT Martin -3 with a total of 52.5 and a moneyline of -136, an implied 57.6% before vig. Kalshi's 57c is within a cent of that number, so there is no cross-market disagreement to trade here, and no second prediction-market book to compare against since Polymarket does not list the game.
The form behind the price is real. UT Martin went 6-6 in 2025 under Jason Simpson, scoring 20.7 points a game and allowing 23.9, with three of its six wins decided by 7 points or fewer (32-31 over Western Illinois, 27-20 over Eastern Illinois, 17-14 over Charleston Southern) and a 20-17 loss at Tennessee Tech to close the year. Central Arkansas went 3-9 under Nathan Brown, scoring more (24.5 a game) but conceding far more (35.2), and lost four games by 7 points or fewer. That defensive gap of 11.3 points a game is the cleanest argument for the 3-point home line, and Central Arkansas moving to the United Athletic Conference schedule while UT Martin plays an Ohio Valley Conference slate means neither team has a shared 2026 opponent to calibrate against yet.
The market settles on the final score of a single game played Thursday, August 27, 2026. Kalshi lists one binary contract per team under event ticker KXNCAAFGAME-26AUG27CARKUTM, and settlement follows about 90 seconds after a winner is declared. The listed close is August 29, 2026, which gives the exchange a two-day buffer for a weather delay or a postponement.
Week 1 boards like this one are the thin end of the college football market. The season-long money sits on the College Football Playoff National Championship board and the conference champion market, where cross-platform pricing is deeper and both books quote. The Coach of the Year market is the other season-long board worth tracking as Week 1 results land. Every college football game and futures board we carry is indexed on the NCAA football hub.
Resolves to the team that wins the Central Arkansas at UT Martin college football game scheduled for Thursday, August 27, 2026 at Hardy M. Graham Stadium in Martin, Tennessee. Kalshi lists two separate binary contracts under event ticker KXNCAAFGAME-26AUG27CARKUTM, one per team, and each pays $1 per share if that team wins. Per Kalshi's published rules, if the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time the market stays open and settles on the official final result; if the game is cancelled or has not started within 48 hours of the original start, the market resolves to a fair price. Settlement follows roughly 90 seconds after a winner is declared, and the listed contract close is August 29, 2026. Polymarket does not list this game, so Kalshi's settlement is the only one in play.
As of August 26, 2026, Kalshi prices UT Martin at 57c and Central Arkansas at 44c on the full-game moneyline. Polymarket does not list the game, so those are the only prediction-market prices available.
Kalshi only, under event ticker KXNCAAFGAME-26AUG27CARKUTM, with one binary contract per team. Lifetime volume across both contracts is about $2.8K, with roughly $2.5K of it on the UT Martin side.
UT Martin, at 57c on Kalshi. DraftKings has the Skyhawks at -3 with a -136 moneyline, an implied 57.6%, so the exchange and the sportsbook are within a cent of each other.
Kickoff is 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, August 27, 2026 at Hardy M. Graham Stadium in Martin, Tennessee. Kalshi settles roughly 90 seconds after a winner is declared, and the contracts carry a listed close of August 29, 2026.
Whether UT Martin holds 57c through Thursday after drifting 4c off its 61c open, game-day availability news for both rosters, and whether the 3,830-contract offer at 57c gets cleared. Both teams are 0-0 with no 2026 form on the board.