| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
State | +3.5 — | O 35.5 — | 0% | — |
Ohio | -3.5 — | U 35.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Jacksonville State | +3.5 — | O 35.5 — | 0% | — |
Ohio | -3.5 — | U 35.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
Ohio hosts Jacksonville State at Peden Stadium at 6:00 PM ET on ESPN+, and the market prices it as a near pick'em. The Bobcats sit at 56% on the moneyline as of September 10, with the spread on 2.5 points and the total on 50.5. Both programs won nine games in 2025, Ohio finishing 9-4 with a Frisco Bowl win over UNLV and Jacksonville State 9-5 after a Conference USA championship game loss. Roughly $31.9K in lifetime volume has traded across the board above, which carries the current price on every line.
Two nine-win teams from last season meet in Week 2 with the market unable to separate them. Ohio is 0-1 after losing 49-21 at Nebraska. Jacksonville State is 1-1, held to 170 total yards in a 33-7 loss at North Dakota State before hanging 49 points on Eastern Kentucky. The board gives Ohio 56% on the moneyline and prices the home team at 2.5 points, which is about as close to a coin flip as a home favorite gets. The full-game total sits on 50.5, and the team-total rungs describe a 26-to-24 game, exactly the margin the spread implies.
Ohio opened at Nebraska and lost 49-21, gaining 303 yards to Nebraska's 523 and converting 6 of 15 third downs. Quarterback Nick Poulos went 14 of 31 for 164 yards and a touchdown and added 70 yards and a score on 10 carries, while receiver Riley Neer caught 6 passes for 104 yards and a touchdown. The scoreboard was lopsided, but the assignment was a road trip to a Big Ten opponent, and the market is pricing that context rather than treating the Bobcats as broken. Ohio finished 9-4 in 2025, beat West Virginia 17-10 during the regular season, and closed the year with a 17-10 Frisco Bowl win over UNLV. The Bowling Green board against that same Nebraska team offers a direct read on how the market handles a MAC program in Lincoln.
Jacksonville State's two games say opposite things. At North Dakota State on August 29 the Gamecocks managed 170 total yards, turned the ball over twice, and converted 2 of 10 third downs. A week later against Eastern Kentucky they produced 526 total yards, 352 of them through the air, and converted 9 of 11 third downs in a 49-7 win. Caden Creel has thrown for 412 yards with 5 touchdowns and 2 interceptions across the two games, and Jalen Likely has 121 rushing yards and a score on 16 carries. Jacksonville State went 9-5 in 2025, reached the Conference USA championship game and lost it 19-15 to Kennesaw State, then beat Troy 17-13 in the Salute to Veterans Bowl.
The spread ladder is where the pricing is most legible. Ohio laying 1.5 trades at 53%, Ohio laying 2.5 at 50%, and Ohio laying 3.5 drops to 43%. That 7-point gap between the 2.5 and 3.5 rungs is the field goal key number doing its work: the market treats a one-score Ohio win as the modal outcome and charges real money to cross the three. Jacksonville State laying 1.5 sits at 44%, which is another way of saying the market values the home field at roughly a field goal and nothing beyond it.
The total ladder is centered just as tightly. Over 47.5 prices at 61%, over 50.5 at 51%, and over 52.5 at 46%, putting the market's median full-game number at about 50.5. The team totals agree with the spread rather than fighting it: Ohio over 26.5 at 52% and Jacksonville State over 24.5 at 49% describe a two-point game in the low 50s. The first-half total is priced with over 26.5 at 49%, so the market expects slightly more than half the scoring to land before the break. The sportsbook line ESPN lists for the game, Ohio by 2.5 with a 50.5 total, sits on the same two anchors the board does.
Line movement has been close to nonexistent. Ohio's moneyline printed 56% on all 20 snapshots captured between the evening of September 9 and late afternoon on September 10, and Jacksonville State's leg has oscillated only between 45% and 46% across the same window. The one real move came on the spread, where Ohio laying 2.5 traded down from 52% to 50% on September 9 and has held 50% since. Volume is concentrated on the favorite: roughly $25.0K of the board's $31.9K lifetime total sits on the Ohio moneyline leg against about $2.4K on Jacksonville State, and the deepest single alternate line is Ohio laying 2.5 at about $1.5K.
The market resolves on the final score of the Saturday, September 12, 2026 game at Peden Stadium in Athens, Ohio, scheduled for 6:00 PM ET on ESPN+. The moneyline pays the team that wins the game. The spread rungs settle on the winning margin, and the full-game, first-half, and team-total rungs settle on points actually scored, with overtime points included per platform rules. Settlement follows the venue's confirmation once the game is final, which typically lands within a few hours of the finish rather than on the calendar date alone.
Ohio's Week 1 opponent appears again on this slate in the Bowling Green vs Nebraska board, which is the closest available comparison for how a MAC team is priced against the Big Ten. The Buffalo vs FIU board is the structural mirror of this game, a MAC program against a Conference USA program with a similarly narrow spread. Jacksonville State's next opponent trades on the Georgia Southern vs Clemson board, which is useful for calibrating the Gamecocks' September schedule. Every Week 2 board sits on the NCAA football prediction market hub.
Resolves on the final score of the Jacksonville State at Ohio game played Saturday, September 12, 2026 at Peden Stadium in Athens, Ohio, scheduled for 6:00 PM ET and streaming on ESPN+. The moneyline contract pays $1 per share on the team that wins the game and $0 on the other side. Spread rungs settle on the final winning margin, and full-game, first-half, and team-total rungs settle on points actually scored, with overtime included per platform rules. If the game is postponed and replayed on a later date, the contracts follow the venue's postponement rules rather than voiding automatically; if it is canceled outright and never played, the contracts void per platform rules.
As of September 10, 2026, Ohio is priced at 56% on the moneyline and Jacksonville State at 45%. The spread sits on Ohio by 2.5 points at 50% and the full-game total on 50.5 points, with over 50.5 at 51%.
It resolves on the final score of the Saturday, September 12, 2026 game at Peden Stadium in Athens, Ohio, which kicks off at 6:00 PM ET on ESPN+. Settlement follows the venue's confirmation once the game goes final.
The moneyline, spread, and total all trade on Kalshi under the KXNCAAFGAME and KXNCAAFSPREAD event tickers for this matchup. Each line on the board above links directly to its venue market.
Ohio is the home favorite at a 56% implied probability as of September 10, 2026, against 45% for Jacksonville State. That is a narrow edge for a home team, and the 2.5-point spread trading at 50% says the market sees a one-score game.
Watch whether Ohio's moneyline breaks 56%, a level it held on all 20 snapshots captured between September 9 and September 10, and whether the spread moves off Ohio by 2.5, where it settled after trading down from 52% to 50% on September 9.