| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
State | -5.5 — | O 34.5 — | 0% | — |
Hawai'i | +5.5 — | U 34.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
New Mexico State | -5.5 — | O 34.5 — | 0% | — |
Hawai'i | +5.5 — | U 34.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
Hawai'i is the 72c home favorite over New Mexico State as of September 10, on a moneyline that has not left a two-cent band since snapshots began. The Rainbow Warriors are 0-2 after scoring six points in their home opener, the Aggies are 1-1 behind a 51-14 win over FCS Mercyhurst, and the spread ladder puts the market's median margin at roughly seven points. The live board above carries the current moneyline, spread, total, team-total and first-half rungs.
Hawai'i opened its home schedule with a 21-6 loss to UNLV and sits 0-2, and the market still makes the Rainbow Warriors a clear favorite over New Mexico State at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex. The board carries $47.4K in lifetime volume across 111 tracked legs, and the moneyline has been pinned: 33 captures between September 9 and September 10 put Hawai'i between 72c and 74c and never outside it. Kickoff is listed for 5:59 PM Hawaii time on Saturday, September 12, 2026, which is 11:59 PM ET on the mainland, on MW+. The market carries a September 13 settlement date because the game ends after midnight Eastern.
Hawai'i finished 9-4 last season, 8-4 in the regular season plus a 35-31 Hawai'i Bowl win over California on this same field. That team is not the one that has shown up so far in 2026. The Rainbow Warriors lost 37-27 at Stanford, a program they beat 23-20 in the 2025 opener, then were held to six points at home by UNLV. Two games in, Hawai'i has scored 33 points and allowed 58. Micah Alejado has completed 48 of 92 for 448 yards with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, a 52.2% rate that is the clearest number on the board. DeVon Rice leads the ground game with 26 carries for 108 yards, and Kainoa Carvalho has 6 catches for 98 yards.
New Mexico State is 1-1 and arrives with the better raw scoring profile, though the sample is doing a lot of work. The Aggies lost 34-17 at Florida State, then beat FCS Mercyhurst 51-14 at Aggie Memorial Stadium. Trey Hedden has thrown for 525 yards on 37 of 62 with 4 touchdowns and 1 interception, James Jones has 165 yards on 30 carries, and TK King leads the receivers with 10 catches for 172 yards. New Mexico State went 4-8 in 2025 and lost its finale 31-24 to Middle Tennessee in overtime. Honolulu is the longest trip on the Aggies' 2026 schedule, and it is a non-conference date for both sides: Hawai'i plays in the Mountain West, New Mexico State in Conference USA.
The gap between the model and the money is worth naming. ESPN's matchup predictor gives Hawai'i an 80.5% chance to win. The board has it at 72%. That is 8.5 points of daylight between a rating system that still weights last season's 9-4 and a market that has watched Hawai'i score 33 points in two games. Traders are discounting the résumé, not the home field.
The spread ladder is where the real read sits. Hawai'i at -2.5 trades at 71c and -3.5 at 65c, so covering a field goal is priced close to simply winning. The rungs then fall off steadily: -4.5 at 60c, -5.5 at 57c, -6.5 at 56c, and -7.5 at 47c. The crossover between 56c and 47c is the market's median margin, which puts it at about Hawai'i by seven. Beyond that the price decays fast, with -13.5 at 36c and -16.5 at 29c, so this is not being modeled as a blowout. The New Mexico State side of the ladder confirms it: the Aggies at -1.5 also trade at 28c.
The total is set near 50. Over 43.5 trades at 70c, over 46.5 at 62c, over 49.5 at 51c and over 50.5 at 49c, so the coin-flip line falls right at 50. Team totals split that roughly 28 to 21: Hawai'i over 27.5 points is 52c and New Mexico State over 20.5 is 50c. That is the number a Hawai'i backer should stare at. An implied 28 points is 11.5 above what the Rainbow Warriors have averaged through two games, and their season high is the 27 they put up in the loss at Stanford. New Mexico State's implied 20.5 sits below its 34 points per game, but that average is carried by the Mercyhurst result; the Aggies managed 17 in their only game against an FBS opponent.
First-half pricing is consistent with the full-game read. Hawai'i to lead by more than 3.5 at the break trades at 55c, and over 24.5 first-half points sits at 50c, half the full-game number. There is no early-script asymmetry priced in here.
On movement, the honest scope matters. Snapshot history on this board reaches back about 23 hours, from the afternoon of September 9 to the afternoon of September 10, not to the opening print. Inside that window Hawai'i went 74c to 72c on 33 captures, New Mexico State went 29c to 28c, and Hawai'i -7.5 went 48c to 47c across 15 captures. That is a market that has settled, not one that is being pushed.
Volume tells its own small story. The New Mexico State moneyline leg carries $19.7K in lifetime volume against $13.6K on Hawai'i, so more money has gone through the cheaper side. That pattern reflects appetite for a longer-priced ticket rather than informed positioning, and it has not moved the price a cent. Hawai'i's home opener against UNLV is the game that reset this number.
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game outright at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu on Saturday, September 12, 2026, with a listed kickoff of 5:59 PM Hawaii time, 11:59 PM ET. Because the finish falls after midnight Eastern, the board is keyed to a September 13 settlement date. Spread rungs settle on the final margin, totals and team totals on the final score, and first-half markets on the score at halftime. Overtime counts toward every full-game line.
The two games that built these records both have live boards: Hawai'i's 21-6 home loss in the UNLV opener and New Mexico State's 51-14 win over Mercyhurst. Elsewhere on the Week 2 Saturday card, UNLV at North Texas and Memphis at Boise State both price out on the same Saturday. The full board of college games is at NCAA football markets, and the season-long picture sits on the national champion market.
Resolves to the team that wins the game outright at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu on Saturday, September 12, 2026, with a listed kickoff of 5:59 PM Hawaii time, which is 11:59 PM ET. The board carries a September 13 settlement date because the finish falls after midnight Eastern. Spread contracts settle on the final margin, full-game and team totals on the final score, and first-half contracts on the score at halftime. Overtime points count toward every full-game line. Winning contracts pay $1 per share and losing contracts pay $0. If the game is canceled, or postponed beyond the platform's stated settlement window, contracts void and are refunded per each venue's published rules.
As of September 10, 2026, Hawai'i is a 72c favorite and New Mexico State trades at 28c on the moneyline. The live board above carries the current prices, which move up to kickoff.
Hawai'i is favored at an implied 72% win probability. The spread ladder flips between Hawai'i -6.5 at 56c and -7.5 at 47c, so the market's median margin is about seven points, and ESPN's matchup predictor is higher still at 80.5%.
The game kicks off at 5:59 PM Hawaii time on Saturday, September 12, 2026, which is 11:59 PM ET, at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex. The board settles under a September 13 date because the finish falls after midnight Eastern.
The market total is right at 50, with over 49.5 points at 51c and over 50.5 at 49c. Team totals split it roughly 28 for Hawai'i, priced at 52c to clear 27.5, and 21 for New Mexico State, priced at 50c to clear 20.5.
Watch whether Hawai'i's team total holds near 28 points, which would require 11.5 more than the Rainbow Warriors have averaged across their 0-2 start. The moneyline has held in a 72c to 74c band since September 9, so any break out of that range is the first real signal on this board.