| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Haven | +42.5 — | O 36.5 — | 0% | — |
State | -42.5 — | U 36.5 — | 100% | 100% Polymarket |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
New Haven | +42.5 — | O 36.5 — | 0% | — |
South Dakota State | -42.5 — | U 36.5 — | 100% | 100% Polymarket |
South Dakota State, 1-1 and a top-three team in both national FCS polls, hosts New Haven at 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, September 12 at Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium in Brookings, South Dakota. The Chargers are 1-1 but scored three points in a 21-3 home loss to Stonehill on September 5, and they are in year two of a four-year move up from Division II. As of September 10 the board prices the Jackrabbits at 98% implied, with $18.5K in lifetime volume and no spread or total attached. The live board above carries current prices.
South Dakota State hosts New Haven on Saturday in a matchup between a program that has played for FCS national titles this decade and one that is two years into a move up from Division II, and the board prices that gap almost to the limit. The Jackrabbits are 1-1 and sit in the top three of both national FCS polls. The Chargers are 1-1 and scored three points in their most recent game. Kickoff is 7:00 PM ET at Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium in Brookings, South Dakota, with the game on ESPN+ nationally and on Midco Sports Net and KELO-TV in the home market. The live board above carries the current prices.
South Dakota State is in Dan Jackson's second season after a 9-5 debut year that ended in the FCS second round, a 41-3 home win over New Hampshire followed by a 50-29 loss at Montana. The 2026 team opened with a 70-7 win over Stetson on August 29, then took a 34-18 loss at Big Ten Northwestern on September 5 in a game the Jackrabbits had within one score into the fourth quarter before a failed two-point try with six minutes left. Through two games quarterback Chase Mason is 28 of 58 for 442 yards with one touchdown and one interception, Josiah Johnson has 142 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 29 carries, and Grahm Goering has 11 catches for 177 yards. The Jackrabbits have scored 88 points and allowed 41, and they open Missouri Valley play at 0-0 in the conference.
New Haven is in Mark Powell's second season and in year two of a four-year reclassification from Division II. The Chargers joined the Northeast Conference on July 1, 2025 and do not reach full Division I membership until 2028-29, which makes them ineligible for the NEC championship and the FCS playoffs for the duration of the transition. They went 5-5 in 2025 with a 24-17 win at Albany as the headline result. This year they beat Marist 22-21 on August 28 and lost 21-3 to Stonehill on September 5, both at home, and Saturday is their first road trip of 2026. New Haven has scored 25 points and allowed 42 through two games, and was picked eighth of eight in the preseason NEC poll.
The board reads South Dakota State at 98% implied and New Haven at 3%, which is the shape you get when an established playoff-caliber FCS team hosts a transitioning opponent that just scored three points. There is no upset case to argue here from anything in the record. What is worth reading is where the money sits. The board carries $18.5K in lifetime volume, and about $13.3K of that, roughly 72%, sits on the New Haven leg against $5.2K on South Dakota State. That is the standard signature of long-shot buying on a lopsided college board, small tickets on a 3% outcome, and it is not information. Do not read the volume split as a market that secretly likes the underdog.
The board is a moneyline and nothing else. There are no spread rungs and no game total, so the two questions that actually carry a game shaped like this one, the margin and whether the Jackrabbits are still throwing in the fourth quarter, have no market attached. That matters for how you use the page: the moneyline is close to fully priced, so the tradeable content on this matchup would live in the derivative lines, and those lines are not on the board as of September 10.
On movement, the price has not budged. Across every snapshot captured, 16 on the New Haven leg running from the evening of September 9 through midday September 10 and seven on the South Dakota State leg over the same window, the quote sat at 98% and 3% without a single tick in either direction. That is a genuine flat line inside the capture window, not an absence of data. A board that opens at 98% and holds there for a full day is one where the venue and the participants agree there is nothing to debate.
The interesting football question is what South Dakota State does with the afternoon. Mason has 58 pass attempts in two games and completed under half of them, and the Jackrabbits' offense has produced 70 points in one game and 18 in the other against a very different level of opponent. A home game against a transitioning NEC team is where a coaching staff gets its backup snaps and its run-game reps back, and where the season's third data point on Mason arrives with a small sample of meaningful throws attached. For a team carrying top-three poll position into a Missouri Valley schedule that puts road trips to North Dakota on October 17 and a home date with South Dakota on October 31 in the second half, the value of Saturday is health and reps, not the result.
The market resolves on the outcome of the game itself, played Saturday, September 12, 2026 at Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium with a scheduled 7:00 PM ET kickoff. Contracts settle once the game goes final and the result is official, which in practice is within hours of the finish. There is no draw path in college football, so exactly one of the two moneyline contracts settles at $1 and the other at $0.
South Dakota State form: 1-1 with 88 points scored and 41 allowed, off a 70-7 win over Stetson and a 34-18 loss at Big Ten Northwestern on September 5.
New Haven offense: 25 points across two games, including a 21-3 home loss to Stonehill, and Saturday is the Chargers' first road game of 2026.
Transition status: New Haven is in year two of a four-year move from Division II and is ineligible for the NEC title and the FCS playoffs until it reaches full Division I membership in 2028-29.
Flat line: the moneyline has not moved off 98% South Dakota State and 3% New Haven in any snapshot captured since the evening of September 9.
Volume concentration: roughly 72% of the board's $18.5K lifetime volume sits on the 3% New Haven leg, which is long-shot ticket buying rather than a signal.
Missing derivatives: the board carries no spread and no total, so margin and second-half scoring have no market attached.
The Northeast Conference has three other teams on the September 12 slate, all of them in the same structural spot New Haven is in: Central Connecticut at Toledo, Robert Morris at Akron, and Wagner at James Madison. New Haven visits both Robert Morris and Central Connecticut later this season, so those boards price the same conference the Chargers are trying to establish themselves in. For the other side of this game, Utah Tech at Montana puts a number on the team that ended South Dakota State's 2025 season in the FCS second round. Every FCS and FBS board on the slate is indexed on the NCAA football hub.
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game outright at Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium in Brookings, South Dakota on Saturday, September 12, 2026, scheduled for 7:00 PM ET. Each side pays $1 per share if that team wins and $0 if it loses, with the official final score, including any overtime, as the source of truth. College football has no ties, so exactly one of the two contracts settles at $1. If the game is postponed and replayed on a later date, platforms settle on the rescheduled result; if it is canceled outright or abandoned before it becomes an official game, contracts void and stake is returned under each venue's published rules. Settlement typically clears within hours of the final whistle.
As of September 10, 2026 the board prices South Dakota State at 98% implied and New Haven at 3%. The quote has not moved off those two numbers in any snapshot captured since the evening of September 9. The live board above shows the current prices.
It resolves on the result of the game itself, kicking off at 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, September 12, 2026 at Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium in Brookings, South Dakota. Contracts settle once the final is official, usually within hours of the finish.
The moneyline on this board trades on Kalshi under the event ticker KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP12NHCSDST, and Prediction Genius aggregates prices across the venues carrying the game. The broadcast is on ESPN+ nationally, with Midco Sports Net and KELO-TV in the home market.
South Dakota State, at 98% implied. The Jackrabbits are 1-1 with a 70-7 win over Stetson and a 34-18 loss at Big Ten Northwestern, and they rank in the top three of both national FCS polls. New Haven is 1-1 in year two of a Division II to FCS transition that leaves it ineligible for the FCS playoffs.
Watch whether the board adds a spread or a total before kickoff, since the moneyline at 98% is close to fully priced and the margin is where the open question sits. On the field, Chase Mason has 58 pass attempts across two games for South Dakota State, and how long he plays into a game like this is the meaningful signal for the Missouri Valley schedule that starts September 19 against Youngstown State.