| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
State | -10.5 — | O 32.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
Temple | +10.5 — | U 32.5 — | 0%0% | — |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Penn State | -10.5 — | O 32.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
Temple | +10.5 — | U 32.5 — | 0%0% | — |
Penn State vs Temple is the most lopsided game on the September 12, 2026 Philadelphia board, and it is priced that way. Penn State is 1-0 after a 45-0 shutout of Marshall, Temple is 1-0 after a 38-14 win over FCS Rhode Island, and Kalshi has the Nittany Lions at 95c as of September 9. The board carries roughly $75.8K in lifetime volume, every priced leg comes from Kalshi, and the live board above has the current moneyline, all 24 spread rungs and the totals ladder. Kickoff is noon ET at Lincoln Financial Field on ESPN2.
Penn State vs Temple odds do not ask who wins. They ask by how much, and the Kalshi board answers with a spread ladder that runs from Penn State minus 1.5 all the way out to minus 41.5. The moneyline is 95c Penn State and 6c Temple as of September 9, a 101c sum that is the Kalshi vig rather than a pricing error. This is an FBS road favorite ranked 16th in ESPN's listed poll visiting an American Conference host at that host's NFL stadium, and roughly $75.8K in lifetime board volume has gone almost entirely into pricing the margin, not the winner.
Both teams are 1-0, and the two results have almost nothing in common. Penn State beat Marshall 45-0 on September 5 with 487 total yards, 25 first downs, zero turnovers and 36:13 of possession, while holding Marshall to 147 yards, 11 first downs and 1-for-11 on third down. Rocco Becht went 13 of 18 for 271 yards and 4 touchdowns, Koby Howard caught 6 balls for 161 yards and a score, and Tony Rojas led the defense with 7 tackles and a sack. That is the profile the 95c price is built on: a clean, efficient, no-turnover blowout of a Group of Five opponent.
Temple beat Rhode Island 38-14 the same day, and Rhode Island is an FCS program. The Owls ran for 227 of their 369 yards, with Keveun Mason carrying 20 times for 158 yards and 2 touchdowns, and they won the turnover battle 3 to 1. The passing game was quiet at 5 of 10 for 85 yards from Ajani Sheppard, and Temple converted only 3 of 12 third downs. A 24-point win over an FCS opponent that leaned that heavily on the ground game and on takeaways does not move a market that is pricing a step up in class.
The 2025 baselines matter more than either Week 1 result. Penn State finished the 2025 regular season 6-6, and five of those six losses came by six points or fewer, including a 30-24 loss to Oregon, a 22-21 loss to Northwestern and a 25-24 loss to Iowa. Temple finished 5-7. The relevant Temple data point is what happened against its two Power Four opponents that year: a 42-3 loss to Oklahoma and a 45-24 loss to Georgia Tech. Those two results, not the Rhode Island win, are the comparable set the spread is drawn from.
Movement has been nonexistent over the window we can observe. Across 39 captures on the Penn State moneyline between 03:57 UTC on September 9 and 02:57 UTC on September 10, the price printed 95c every single time. Temple printed 6c across all 34 of its captures. The primary spread rung held 53c across 25 captures and the primary total held 52c across 15. That is about 24 hours of snapshot history rather than the full life of the market, so the honest read is a line pinned through a full day of trading, not a measured move from open.
The spread ladder puts the market's expected margin right on 24 points. Penn State minus 23.5 trades at 53c and Penn State minus 24.5 trades at 48c, so the coin flip sits between those two rungs. The minus 23.5 leg is also the single busiest contract on the board at about $17.3K in lifetime volume, more than half of what the Penn State moneyline itself has traded. That is where the actual opinion on this game lives.
Read the tails and the distribution is wide. Penn State minus 13.5 is 79c, minus 30.5 is 34c, minus 35.5 is 21c and minus 41.5 is still 13c. So the market gives a two-touchdown Penn State win roughly a 4-in-5 chance and a six-touchdown Penn State win better than 1-in-8. That fat right tail is the tell that this is a body-bag game priced as one, with the uncertainty concentrated in when the starters come out rather than in whether Temple can hang around.
The total is the other real market here. Over 49.5 points trades at 52c and Over 50.5 at 48c, which puts the number on 50. Pair that with the team totals and the shape gets specific: Penn State over 36.5 points sits at 52c and Temple over 13.5 points sits at 50c, so the market's central case is something close to a 37-14 Penn State win. The first-half board says the same thing faster, with Penn State winning the first half by more than 13.5 points priced at 50c and over 27.5 first-half points at 48c. Half the expected scoring is projected before the break.
ESPN's listed DraftKings line for the same game reads Penn State minus 23.5 with a 49.5 total, and Temple's moneyline there has drifted from an opening plus-1100 to plus-1400. Kalshi and the sportsbook number agree on both the spread and the total, which is the ordinary state of affairs on a game this one-sided and is worth noting mostly because it removes any question about whether the Kalshi ladder is mispriced.
One piece of volume deserves plain language. The Temple moneyline leg has taken about $11.7K in lifetime volume at 6c against roughly $33.1K on the Penn State side. Money sitting on a 6c ticket is lottery-ticket buying, priced for the payout rather than the read, and it should not be treated as informed disagreement with the 95c favorite. Temple is not a live underdog on this board, and nothing in the price history suggests anyone is trading it as one.
The watchable questions are on the margin markets. Penn State's second-string snaps are the whole story of the minus 27.5 rung and above, and Temple's home board prices its own ceiling through the team total rather than the moneyline.
The game kicks off at noon ET on Saturday, September 12, 2026 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, televised on ESPN2. The moneyline resolves to the winner of the game, and the spread and total legs resolve against the official final score, overtime included, once the game goes final. Kalshi settles all legs on the same official result, so a Penn State win by exactly 24 points would settle minus 23.5 YES and minus 24.5 NO. Expect settlement the same day for most legs, with the usual platform allowance for a delayed or suspended game.
The rest of the September 12 slate carries the games where the moneyline is actually in doubt: Ohio State vs Texas is the marquee board of the weekend, and Alabama vs Kentucky prices a conference road spot rather than a nonconference tune-up. For the season-long picture that a Penn State blowout feeds into, the college football national champion market tracks every contender across both platforms. Penn State's team board collects the Nittany Lions' remaining games, and the NCAA football hub has every college board currently trading.
Resolves on the official final score of the Penn State at Temple game scheduled for noon ET on Saturday, September 12, 2026 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. The moneyline legs pay $1 per share to the winning team and $0 to the loser. Spread legs settle against the final margin including overtime, so Penn State minus 23.5 pays YES on a Penn State win of 24 or more points and NO on anything less. Total and team-total legs settle against combined or per-team points scored in the official final, overtime included. If the game is postponed and played on a later date, Kalshi settles on the rescheduled result under its contract terms; if it is canceled outright and not played, contracts void and return per platform rules.
As of September 9, 2026, Kalshi prices Penn State at 95c and Temple at 6c on the moneyline, which is a 101c sum reflecting the platform's vig. The primary spread rung is Penn State minus 23.5 at 53c and the total sits on 50, with Over 49.5 at 52c. Check the live board above for the current numbers.
Penn State is favored at roughly a 95% implied probability, with Temple around 6%. The spread ladder puts the expected margin at 24 points, since Penn State minus 23.5 trades at 53c and minus 24.5 at 48c.
Every priced leg on this board comes from Kalshi, which lists the moneyline, 24 spread rungs from minus 1.5 to minus 41.5, a full totals ladder, team totals and first-half markets. No Polymarket contracts are grouped to this board, so there is no cross-platform price to compare.
The game kicks off at noon ET on Saturday, September 12, 2026 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia on ESPN2, and all legs settle on the official final score once the game goes final, overtime included.
Watch the minus 23.5 and minus 24.5 spread rungs, which straddle the market's expected margin and hold the heaviest volume on the board at about $17.3K lifetime on the minus 23.5 leg. Any injury news on Rocco Becht, who threw 4 touchdowns on 18 attempts in the opener, would move the margin ladder well before it moved the 95c moneyline.