| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
SEMO | — | — | 0% | — |
State | — | — | 100% | 100% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
SEMO | — | — | 0% | — |
Iowa State | — | — | 100% | 100% Kalshi |
Iowa State is the 99c favorite on Kalshi against Southeast Missouri State, with the Redhawks at 3c and $34.8K of lifetime volume across the two legs. This is a one-book board with no Polymarket leg, so the 99c is a single order book rather than a cross-platform consensus. Iowa State went 8-4 in 2025 and opens 2026 at home; Southeast Missouri State went 4-8 and arrives 1-0 after a 23-21 win at Indiana State. Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on September 5, 2026, at Jack Trice Stadium on ESPN+.
Iowa State opens 2026 at home against an FCS opponent that has already played a game, and the board treats the result as close to decided. The Kalshi market prices the Cyclones at 99c and Southeast Missouri State at 3c, with $34.8K in lifetime volume across the two legs. Iowa State finished 8-4 in 2025 (5-4 in the Big 12) and 4-2 at Jack Trice Stadium. Southeast Missouri State finished 4-8 (3-5 in the Ohio Valley Conference) and arrives 1-0 in 2026 after a 23-21 win at Indiana State on August 29. Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, September 5, 2026, in Ames, Iowa, streaming on ESPN+ with no linear broadcast.
This is a one-book board. Kalshi is the only venue listing the game, so there is no Polymarket leg and no cross-platform spread to read. That is worth stating plainly before anyone treats the 99c as a two-venue consensus: it is a single order book.
The two legs price at 99c and 3c, which sum to 102c. The 2c overround is the book's vig, and taking it out puts Iowa State nearer 97% than a literal 99%. That distinction carries more weight here than on a coin-flip board, because at these levels the entire tradeable range is the 3c side and the gap between 1% and 3% is the whole position.
Movement has been minimal, which is what this class of game should look like. Our snapshot series begins on September 1 and runs a little over a day. Across that window Iowa State moved from 97c to 99c early on September 2 and has held 99c since, while the Southeast Missouri State leg printed 3c on all 26 captures. Treat that as the captured window, not a full open-to-now history.
Volume distribution is the more interesting number. The Iowa State leg carries $24.8K of the $34.8K lifetime total and the Southeast Missouri State leg carries $10.0K, so close to 29% of the money on this board sits on a 3c outcome. That is normal behavior on FBS-hosting-FCS boards: the favorite side is a cash-parking trade at 99c, and the underdog side attracts small-stake flow that never moves the price.
Southeast Missouri State's most useful data point is not the 2025 record, it is the 2025 opener: a 42-24 loss at Arkansas State, an FBS program out of the Sun Belt. The Redhawks scored 24 in that game and lost by 18. They also lost 41-14 at North Dakota State, one of the FCS's dominant programs. Iowa State in Ames is a harder assignment than either, and the 2026 win at Indiana State (23-21, on the road) came against an FCS opponent rather than an FBS one.
Iowa State's 2025 broke into three clean stretches. The Cyclones started 5-0, including a 24-21 win over Kansas State in the season opener and a 16-13 win over Iowa, then lost four straight (38-30 at Cincinnati, 24-17 at Colorado, 41-27 to BYU, 24-19 to Arizona State), then closed on a three-game run of 20-17 at TCU, 38-14 over Kansas and 20-13 at Oklahoma State. Six of their twelve results were decided by seven points or fewer, which is a profile of a team that lives in tight games rather than one that buries opponents. The lone blowout was 55-7 over an FCS visitor, which is the closest 2025 analog to this Saturday.
Our board carries only the moneyline. There is no spread market and no total on it, and on a game priced at 99c the moneyline is the least informative line available. The sportsbook consensus carried on ESPN's feed fills that gap: Iowa State laying 29.5 points with a total of 53.5, opened at 29.5 and 54.5. A 99c moneyline next to a 29.5-point spread is a market saying Iowa State wins comfortably without expecting a 60-point exhibition.
The real stake sits a week later. Iowa State travels to Iowa on September 12 for the rivalry game, hosts Utah on September 26, and goes to BYU on October 10. A Week 1 opener against an FCS visitor is a snap-count and depth exercise ahead of that. The angle worth tracking is not who wins but who plays: how early the backup quarterback appears, and how much of the second half runs on reserves. The Iowa State team hub carries the rest of the Cyclones' 2026 board as those games come onto the exchanges.
The market resolves on the final score of the game at Jack Trice Stadium on September 5, 2026, scheduled for 1:00 PM ET. The Iowa State contract pays $1 per share if Iowa State wins and $0 otherwise, and the Southeast Missouri State contract is the exact mirror. College football does not end in ties, so exactly one leg settles at $1. Kalshi settles from the official final result, normally within hours of the game going final. A postponement, cancellation or abandonment before an official final score settles under Kalshi's published rules for the series rather than on the scheduled date.
Iowa's own Week 1 board is live at Northern Illinois vs Iowa, which is the other half of the September 12 rivalry game and the more informative of the two openers. For the Big 12 read, Oklahoma State vs Tulsa and Baylor vs Auburn price two more conference teams on the same Saturday. The season-long questions trade on the College Football National Champion and Conference Champion boards, and the full slate sits on the college football hub.
This market resolves on the final score of the Southeast Missouri State at Iowa State game played at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa on September 5, 2026, scheduled for a 1:00 PM ET kickoff. The Iowa State moneyline contract pays $1 per share if Iowa State wins the game and $0 if it does not, and the Southeast Missouri State contract is the exact mirror. College football games cannot end in a tie, so exactly one of the two legs settles at $1. Kalshi is the settlement venue and settles from the official final result, normally within hours of the game going final. If the game is postponed, canceled or abandoned before an official final score is recorded, the contracts settle under Kalshi's published rules for the KXNCAAFGAME series rather than on the originally scheduled date.
As of September 2, 2026, Kalshi prices Iowa State at 99c and Southeast Missouri State at 3c on the moneyline. The two legs sum to 102c, so once the vig is removed the Cyclones sit near 97%. The board carries $34.8K in lifetime volume.
It resolves on the final score of the September 5, 2026 game at Jack Trice Stadium, scheduled for a 1:00 PM ET kickoff. Kalshi settles from the official result once the game goes final, normally within hours.
Kalshi only. Polymarket does not list this game, so there is no second book and no cross-platform price to compare against the 99c.
Iowa State, heavily. The Cyclones were 99c on Kalshi on September 2, 2026, and the sportsbook consensus carried on ESPN's feed has them laying 29.5 points with a total of 53.5.
Iowa State's starter usage. The Cyclones travel to Iowa on September 12, so how early the backups appear is the meaningful variable in a game the market already prices near 97%.