| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Miss | +13.5 — | O 35.5 — | 0%0% | — |
Auburn | -13.5 — | U 35.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Southern Miss | +13.5 — | O 35.5 — | 0%0% | — |
Auburn | -13.5 — | U 35.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
Auburn hosts Southern Miss at Jordan-Hare Stadium on September 12, 2026, with kickoff set for 7:45 PM ET on SEC Network. Both teams arrive 1-0, but the board treats this as a near-five-touchdown mismatch: the Kalshi pricing pivot sits at Auburn -33.5 with a 56.5-point total, and both numbers match the DraftKings line ESPN carries. The board holds $132.2K in lifetime volume, roughly $90K of which sits on the Southern Miss moneyline leg alone. The live board above has current prices; the market resolves when the game goes final.
Auburn opened the 2026 season by surviving Baylor 17-16 at home on September 5, and the market has still made the Tigers a near-five-touchdown favorite over a Southern Miss team that hung 49 points in its own opener. That is the tension on this board. Kalshi is the only venue quoting the game, the full board carries $132.2K in lifetime volume across 103 lines, 61 of them currently priced, and the pricing pivot sits at Auburn -33.5 with a 56.5-point total.
Auburn is 1-0 on the strength of a one-point home win in which it was outgained 436 yards to 389 and gave the ball away three times. Byrum Brown went 26 of 35 for 259 yards with three interceptions, and Jeremiah Cobb led the ground game with 53 yards on 12 carries. The Tigers finished 5-7 in 2025 and did not reach the postseason, so the Baylor result is the only 2026 data point the market has to work from.
Southern Miss is also 1-0, off a 49-3 win over Alcorn State that produced 543 total yards, 317 of them rushing, against one turnover to Alcorn State's five. Steven Robinson carried 23 times for 123 yards and three touchdowns and Ethan Hampton went 13 of 23 for 180 yards. That is a real performance and it is also an FCS opponent, which is why a 46-point win moved this line by nothing. The Golden Eagles went 7-5 in the 2025 regular season and lost the New Orleans Bowl to Western Kentucky 27-16 at Caesars Superdome, finishing 7-6.
As of September 9, 2026, Kalshi prices Auburn at 98% and Southern Miss at 4%. ESPN's Matchup Predictor puts Auburn at 87.7% and Southern Miss at 12.3%, so the market is roughly ten points more confident in the favorite than a public model built on last year's efficiency data. Neither number describes a competitive game.
The volume distribution is the most misread thing on this board. Of the $132.2K in lifetime volume, $89.97K sits on the Southern Miss moneyline and only $11.45K on the Auburn side. That is lottery-ticket buying, not informed money: a 4% contract is cheap enough that traders can pour real dollars into it without the price responding at all. Across every one of the 23 snapshots captured since September 9, the Southern Miss leg held at 4% even as its rolling 24-hour volume climbed from roughly $5K to $34.8K on the final capture.
Auburn -33.5 is the coin-flip rung at 50%, bracketed by -30.5 at 57% and -35.5 at 43%. That single rung carries $8.9K, more than any other spread line on the board, and the -29.5 rung behind it carries $6.3K. The total pivots at 56.5 points priced at 51%, with 54.5 at 57% and 59.5 at 44%. Put the two together and the board's central projection is something close to a 45-11 Auburn win.
The first-half market is the sharper expression of that read. Auburn to win the first half by more than 20.5 points prices at 51%, and by more than 19.5 points at 54%. A 20-point halftime number attached to a 33.5-point full-game number says the market expects the result decided before the break, with the fourth quarter belonging to Auburn's backups. Southern Miss to win the first half by more than 2.5 points prices at 9%.
The team totals cap the ceiling in both directions. Auburn over 57.5 points prices at 12% and over 63.5 at 9%, so the board is not paying for a scoreboard-breaking night from a team that scored 17 in its opener. Southern Miss over 19.5 points prices at 14%. ESPN's forecast for Jordan-Hare Stadium is 79 degrees with a 33% chance of precipitation and gusts to 9 mph, conditions that argue for nothing in particular on the total.
Movement has been close to nil. Across roughly 23 hours of snapshots ending late on September 9, the Auburn moneyline traded in a one-point band between 97% and 98%, the Southern Miss leg never left 4%, the Auburn -33.5 rung went from 49% to 51% and settled back at 50%, and the 54.5 total held at 57% on all 12 captures. This is a board that opened where it belongs and has stayed there.
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game at Jordan-Hare Stadium on September 12, 2026, scheduled for 7:45 PM ET and televised on SEC Network. Spread contracts settle against Auburn's final margin of victory, full-game total contracts against the combined final score, and the first-half contracts against the score at halftime. Each contract pays $1 per share on a yes resolution and $0 otherwise. Settlement follows the official final score, and if the game is postponed or canceled the contracts do not settle until Kalshi applies its published rules for the event.
Auburn's season-long board and every remaining Tigers game sit on the Auburn team hub, and the Golden Eagles' Sun Belt slate is on the Southern Miss team hub. The rest of the September 12 card is on the NCAA football hub, where the marquee game is Ohio State at Texas, a board priced nothing like this one.
Resolves to the team that wins the game between Southern Miss and Auburn at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Alabama on September 12, 2026, scheduled for 7:45 PM ET on SEC Network. Moneyline contracts pay $1 per share for the winning team and $0 for the loser. Spread contracts settle against Auburn's final margin of victory, full-game total contracts against the combined final score of both teams, and first-half contracts against the score at halftime. Settlement uses the official final score. If the game is postponed, suspended or canceled, contracts do not settle until Kalshi applies its published rules for the event.
As of September 9, 2026, Kalshi prices Auburn at 98% to win and Southern Miss at 4%. The spread pivots at Auburn -33.5, priced at 50%, and the total pivots at 56.5 points, priced at 51%.
The market resolves when the game goes final at Jordan-Hare Stadium on September 12, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:45 PM ET on SEC Network, so settlement follows roughly three and a half hours later.
Kalshi is the only venue quoting this game, with 103 lines across the moneyline, match spread, match total, team totals and first-half markets. There is no Polymarket book on it, so the board carries no cross-platform comparison.
Auburn is favored by 33.5 points, the same number DraftKings posts per ESPN, and the moneyline implies roughly a 98% chance the Tigers win. ESPN's Matchup Predictor is less certain at 87.7%.
Watch the first-half margin rung, where Auburn by more than 20.5 points prices at 51%, and watch whether Auburn's turnover problem from the 17-16 Baylor win follows it into week two. Southern Miss ran for 317 yards in its opener, and a repeat of that ground volume is the main threat to the 56.5 total.