| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
TNST | — | — | 0% | — |
Georgia | — | — | 100% | 100% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
TNST | — | — | 0% | — |
Georgia | — | — | 100% | 100% Kalshi |
Georgia opens its 2026 season as the preseason No. 3 team hosting an FCS opponent that has already lost once, and the board treats the winner as settled business. As of September 2 the Kalshi moneyline has Georgia at 100c and Tennessee State at 1c, with about $90.4K of lifetime volume across the two legs and no Polymarket book on either side. The live board above carries the current prices. The questions with actual variance here are the 46.5-point spread, the 56.5-point total, and how early Kirby Smart empties the depth chart. Kickoff is 3:00 PM ET Saturday at Sanford Stadium in Athens on SEC Network+.
Georgia has not lost a season opener since 2013 and Kirby Smart is 10-0 in them, so a preseason No. 3 team hosting a two-win FCS program produces exactly the board you would expect. Kalshi has the Bulldogs at 100c and Tennessee State at 1c, and across roughly 30 hours of captured snapshots from September 1 through midday September 2 neither leg moved a single tick. That is an observed hold, not an assumption. The interesting number is the sportsbook line: DraftKings opened Georgia at -44.5, has pushed it to -46.5, and has posted no moneyline at all, which is the book saying the same thing the prediction market is saying in a different vocabulary.
Georgia finished 2025 at 12-2, won its second straight SEC title with a 28-7 win over Alabama on December 6, and then lost 39-34 to Ole Miss in the College Football Playoff quarterfinal on January 2, 2026. Across those 13 regular season and SEC Championship games the Bulldogs scored 31.9 points per game and allowed 15.9, with the only loss coming 24-21 to Alabama on September 27. They beat Texas 35-10 in Athens and won 44-41 in overtime at Tennessee. Quarterback Gunner Stockton returns, as does running back Nate Frazier, so this is a continuity opener rather than a rebuild opener.
Tennessee State is coming off a 2-10 season in Reggie Barlow's first year, averaging 12.9 points per game while allowing 26.6. The Tigers were held to single digits five times in 2025 and lost 3-59 to North Dakota State, which is the clearest available read on this roster's floor against an elite opponent. Their 2026 opener was a 26-24 loss to Jackson State at Nissan Stadium in Nashville on August 29, a game decided late. Quarterback Daylin Lee, a transfer from Winston-Salem State, threw for 265 yards with a passing touchdown and a rushing touchdown in that loss, and Smart singled him out this week as an efficient passer who is hard to bring down.
That is the honest read of the matchup. Tennessee State has a functional quarterback and a one-score loss to a fellow FCS program on its record. It does not have the line of scrimmage, the depth, or the special teams margin to make a No. 3 team sweat, and the 1c contract is priced accordingly. Nothing on this board supports an upset case, so do not construct one.
A 46.5-point spread against a 56.5-point total prices Georgia in the low 50s and Tennessee State near a touchdown. Both of those are conditional on snap distribution rather than on talent. Georgia's 2025 home game against FCS opponent Austin Peay finished 28-6, a 22-point win, while its non-conference home games against Marshall and Charlotte finished 45-7 and 35-3. That Austin Peay result is the cautionary data point for anyone treating the spread as automatic: Georgia won comfortably and would not have covered a number in the mid-40s.
The prediction market does not currently offer a spread or total leg on this board, only the two moneyline contracts. That is a real limitation worth naming rather than working around. If you want exposure to the margin, the sportsbook number is the only instrument, and the Kalshi board is a settlement instrument on the winner alone.
Volume distribution is the one genuinely interesting feature of the board. The Tennessee State leg carries about $61.2K in lifetime volume against roughly $29.1K on the Georgia leg. That inversion is normal on a pinned board: at 100c there is no room left to buy, so the remaining activity concentrates on the cheap side, where a contract can be sold or held as a low-cost tail bet. It is not a signal that money likes the underdog.
The market resolves on the final score of the game at Sanford Stadium on Saturday, September 5, 2026, with kickoff at 3:00 PM ET on SEC Network+. Kalshi settles the winning team contract at $1 and the losing team contract at $0 once the game is official, which in practice lands within a few hours of the final whistle. There is no draw outcome in college football, so one of the two contracts always pays. A postponement or cancellation pushes settlement to the platform's rescheduling rules rather than voiding immediately.
Georgia's season-long price is the market that actually moves, and it trades on the college football national champion board alongside the conference champion market where the Bulldogs defend back-to-back SEC titles. Gunner Stockton's individual season is priced on the Heisman Trophy board. For a same-day SEC comparison with a real line, the East Carolina at Alabama board runs at the same tier of mismatch, and every Week 1 game is listed on the NCAA football hub.
Resolves to the team that wins the game at Sanford Stadium in Athens, Georgia on Saturday, September 5, 2026, with kickoff scheduled for 3:00 PM ET on SEC Network+. The winning team contract settles at $1 per share and the losing team contract settles at $0, using the official final score once the game is declared complete. College football has no draw outcome, so exactly one of the two moneyline contracts pays. Overtime results count toward the final score for settlement. If the game is postponed or moved, settlement follows Kalshi's rescheduling rules for the event series rather than voiding at the original date, and a game abandoned without an official result voids per platform rules.
As of September 2, 2026, Kalshi has Georgia at 100c and Tennessee State at 1c on the moneyline, and neither leg moved across snapshots captured from September 1 through midday September 2. The live board above carries the current prices.
Kalshi only. The board carries about $90.4K in lifetime volume across the two moneyline contracts, roughly $29.1K on the Georgia leg and $61.2K on the Tennessee State leg, with no Polymarket book on either side.
Georgia, at an implied probability of roughly 99%. DraftKings lists Georgia at -46.5 after opening at -44.5 with a total of 56.5 and no moneyline posted, which is the sportsbook expressing the same view as the 100c contract.
On the final score of the September 5, 2026 game at Sanford Stadium, which kicks off at 3:00 PM ET on SEC Network+. Kalshi settles the winning team contract at $1 and the other at $0 once the result is official.
Georgia's starter snap counts against the 46.5-point spread and the 56.5-point total, since the comparable 2025 FCS home game against Austin Peay finished 28-6. Tennessee State quarterback Daylin Lee's ability to sustain drives is the main lever on the total.