| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶UCD | — | — | 95% | 95% Kalshi |
▶PRST | — | — | 6% | 6% Kalshi |
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No spread lines available.
No total (o/u) lines available.
UC Davis is a 95c favorite on Kalshi against Portland State at 6c for the Big Sky opener at Hillsboro Stadium on August 29, 2026, one of the widest moneyline prices on the FCS slate. The gap is a 2025 story: UC Davis finished the regular season 8-3 and reached the FCS quarterfinals, while Portland State went 1-11 and was outscored 512-194. The board is Kalshi only and thin, at $4.3K in lifetime volume across both legs, and the last time these two played, UC Davis won by a single point in Portland.
Kalshi has UC Davis at 95c and Portland State at 6c for the Big Sky opener at Hillsboro Stadium, one of the most lopsided prices on the August 29, 2026 college football board. The two programs last met on October 5, 2024, in Portland, and UC Davis needed the full sixty minutes to win it 27-26. Everything between that one-point result and today's 95c price happened in 2025, when UC Davis went 8-3 in the regular season and reached the FCS quarterfinals while Portland State finished 1-11.
UC Davis closed the 2025 regular season 8-3, scoring 31.2 points per game and allowing 29.5. The Aggies beat Rhode Island 47-26 in the second round of the FCS playoffs on December 7, 2025, then lost 42-31 at home to Illinois State in the quarterfinals six days later. Their three regular-season losses were a 70-10 result at FBS Washington, a 38-36 loss to Idaho State, and a 38-17 loss at Montana State. Tim Plough is listed as head coach on the school's 2026 staff directory. Note that the 2025 UC Davis opener against Mercer does not appear in that record: it was declared a no contest with 7:46 left in the fourth quarter.
Portland State went 1-11 in 2025 and was outscored 512-194, an average of 42.7 points allowed against 16.2 scored. The lone win was 40-35 at Cal Poly on November 1, 2025. The rest of the season included a 69-0 loss at BYU, a 45-6 loss at Idaho, a 63-17 loss to Montana, and a 42-0 home loss to Tarleton State in the opener. Portland State's staff directory now lists Chris Fisk as head coach in his first year with the program, and that coaching change is the largest input on this board that no price can properly reflect yet.
Neither team has a 2026 result, so there is no record, no standing, and no current form to read into this game. Both sit at 0-0. The verifiable inputs are the 2025 results above, the Portland State coaching change, and the 2024 head-to-head, and that head-to-head cuts against the size of the number. UC Davis won 27-26 in Portland on October 5, 2024, a one-score road win. The two did not meet in 2025. A market pricing a 95% favorite is pricing the 2025 divergence, not the last time these teams shared a field.
The board carries roughly a day of snapshot history, with the first capture on August 25, 2026, so any movement read here is scoped to about 24 hours and not to a true opening number. Inside that window UC Davis opened at 95c, traded between 94c and 96c, and sits back at 95c. Portland State opened at 7c, printed as high as 9c and as low as 6c, and sits at 6c. That is a market holding its number rather than a market moving.
Depth is thin and worth stating plainly. The two legs carry $4.3K in combined lifetime volume, split $1.75K on the UC Davis contract and $2.6K on the Portland State contract. Nearly all of the last day's flow sat on the underdog: $518 on the Portland State side against $10.29 on UC Davis. Thin is the normal condition for an FCS opener on a prediction market and is not evidence of a broken board, but it does mean the 95c print is a quote out of a shallow book rather than a heavily traded consensus.
This is a single-platform board. There is no Polymarket contract on this game, so there is no second book to cross-check the favorite against and no cross-platform read to make. The Kalshi book itself is a cent wide on both sides, 94 bid against 95 ask on UC Davis and 5 bid against 6 ask on Portland State, and the two contracts sum to 101c, which is one cent of overround. There is also no spread and no total listed on this game, only the two moneyline contracts.
The market resolves to the team that wins the game, scheduled for Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 12:00 PM PT (3:00 PM ET) at Hillsboro Stadium in Hillsboro, Oregon. ESPN lists the game on ESPN+ and Portland State lists a local broadcast on Rose City SportsNet. Kalshi's stated rule is that the Portland State contract resolves Yes if Portland State wins the game, with the winning contract paying $1 per share and the losing side settling at zero. Expected expiration is the evening of August 29, 2026, with a hard close of August 31, 2026. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of the scheduled start, the market stays open and settles on the official final. If it is cancelled or has not started inside that 48-hour window, Kalshi settles the market at a fair price.
The wider opening weekend board is on the NCAA football hub, and the full day's slate across every league sits on today's board. Two more games worth pairing with this one: Weber State vs Northern Colorado on August 28, with both programs appearing on the 2025 schedules of both UC Davis and Portland State, and Sacramento State vs Eastern Michigan on the same Saturday, a board that does carry spread and total contracts alongside the moneyline. For the longer-dated view, the college football national champion market prices the FBS title race that runs parallel to the FCS bracket UC Davis reached last December.
Resolves to the team that wins the UC Davis at Portland State college football game scheduled for Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 12:00 PM PT (3:00 PM ET) at Hillsboro Stadium in Hillsboro, Oregon. Kalshi's rule states that the Portland State contract resolves Yes if Portland State wins, and the UC Davis contract resolves Yes if UC Davis wins. The winning contract pays $1 per share and the losing contract settles at zero. Expected expiration is the evening of August 29, 2026, with a hard close of August 31, 2026. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, the market remains open and settles on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or has not started within 48 hours of the scheduled start, Kalshi settles the market at a fair price. Only moneyline contracts are listed on this game, so there is no spread or total to settle.
As of August 26, 2026, Kalshi prices UC Davis at 95c and Portland State at 6c on the moneyline. The book is a cent wide on both sides, 94 bid against 95 ask on UC Davis and 5 bid against 6 ask on Portland State.
UC Davis, at a 95% implied probability against 6% for Portland State as of August 26, 2026. The two contracts sum to 101c, which is one cent of overround on the pair.
Kalshi is the only platform listing this game. There is no Polymarket contract on it, so the 95c favorite has no second book to compare against. Combined lifetime volume across both contracts is $4.3K.
It resolves on the result of the game, kicking off at 12:00 PM PT (3:00 PM ET) on Saturday, August 29, 2026 at Hillsboro Stadium. Expected expiration is that evening, with a hard close of August 31, 2026.
No. This board carries only the two moneyline contracts. By contrast, the Sacramento State vs Eastern Michigan board on the same Saturday lists spread ladders and total ladders alongside its moneyline.
The Portland State side has taken $518 of the last day's flow against $10.29 on UC Davis, so the underdog contract is where any pre-kickoff repricing will show first. Chris Fisk's first game as Portland State head coach is the variable a 6c price has no history to measure.