UC Davis vs San Diego Prediction Market Odds, September 5, 2026

UC Davis is the 86c favorite on Kalshi to win at San Diego on September 5, 2026, and the board has been steady rather than sharp. The Aggies opened the season with a 31-24 win at Portland State on August 29 and now play their second game in eight days, while San Diego has not played a snap yet. The whole board is $164.34 in lifetime volume across two moneyline contracts, so this is a thin market on a game that will not be close to the top of the college football card.

UC Davis vs San Diego Market Context

The gap in the price is a gap in program level, not a gap in 2025 results. UC Davis finished the 2025 regular season 8-3, won an FCS playoff game 47-26 over Rhode Island, and lost 42-31 to Illinois State at home in the quarterfinals on December 13. San Diego finished 8-4 and closed on five straight wins by a combined 185-83, beating Davidson 40-28, Dayton 31-13, Valparaiso 43-27, Butler 29-7 and Stetson 42-8. Two winning teams, and the market still prices this near five-to-one.

The 2025 common opponents explain why. Both teams played Southern Utah: UC Davis won 50-34, San Diego won 30-27 at home. Both played Cal Poly: UC Davis won 34-27 on the road, San Diego lost 41-17 at home. Both played Montana State: UC Davis lost 38-17, San Diego lost 41-7. Against the same three teams the Aggies went 2-1 and the Toreros went 1-2, and the margin gap on the shared losses is the part the price is reading. San Diego's eight wins came almost entirely inside the Pioneer Football League, which is a non-scholarship conference, while UC Davis banked its record against scholarship Big Sky programs and then won a playoff game.

The 2026 opener gives a live read on the favorite. Quarterback Treynor Cleeland went 22 of 39 for 287 yards with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception at Portland State, Jordan Fisher carried 14 times for 65 yards and 2 scores, and Samuel Gbatu Jr. caught 8 passes for 107 yards and a touchdown. That is a passing-first profile, with the lead back's 65 rushing yards trailing the leading receiver's 107, and it produced 31 points on the road against a Big Sky opponent. San Diego has no 2026 snaps on tape, which is a real part of why a season opener for one team and a second game for the other prices the way it does.

Inside the UC Davis vs San Diego Board

This is a Kalshi-only board. Polymarket has no leg on either side, so `platform_count` is 1 and there is no cross-platform price to compare. Nothing here is a consensus of two exchanges, and the 86c on UC Davis is one exchange's number.

The two moneyline contracts sum to 103 (UC Davis 86c, San Diego 17c), which is the normal shape when a platform lists each side as its own yes contract rather than one two-way market. Volume is split $94.01 on the UC Davis leg and $70.33 on the San Diego leg. That is a book small enough that a single order moves the quote, which is exactly what the snapshot series shows.

Every tick this board has was captured inside roughly one day. UC Davis opened the captured window at 86c on September 2, ticked as high as 90c overnight, and settled back to 86c. San Diego started at 18c, ranged between 17c and 21c, and sits at 17c. There is no open-to-now story to tell here because there is no history before September 2 to tell it with. The move up and back is consistent with a handful of small fills, not with information.

The alternate markets are posted but not live. Kalshi has an eleven-rung total ladder from Over 37.5 up to Over 77.5 in four-point steps, and every single rung shows no price and zero volume on the board. There is no spread market at all. So the only tradeable question here is who wins, and the scoring range that a body-bag price usually implies has not been priced by anyone yet.

When the UC Davis vs San Diego Market Resolves

The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game at Torero Stadium in San Diego, California, scheduled for 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, September 5, 2026, streaming on ESPN+. The winning team's contract pays $1 per share and the losing team's contract pays $0. The total contracts, if any of them trade before kickoff, settle on combined points scored by both teams in the final official score, including overtime. If the game is canceled or postponed past the platform's stated settlement window, the contracts void or roll under Kalshi's own rules for that series rather than resolving on a partial score.

Key UC Davis vs San Diego Catalysts

• One-book pricing: the entire board is Kalshi, with no Polymarket leg on either side, so there is no second exchange to check the 86c against.
• Thin book: $164.34 of lifetime volume across two contracts means the quote moves on small orders, which is what the 86c to 90c and back path on September 2 looks like.
• Season opener versus game two: San Diego is 0-0 with no 2026 tape, while UC Davis has already been hit in a live game and won 31-24 at Portland State.
• Conference level: San Diego's 8-4 in 2025 was built in the non-scholarship Pioneer Football League, and its two games against scholarship Big Sky opponents were losses of 24 and 34 points.
• Unpriced total ladder: eleven Over rungs from 37.5 to 77.5 are posted with zero volume, so the market has expressed no view on scoring, only on the winner.
• Short-week travel: UC Davis plays its third game in fifteen days at SMU on September 12, and how the Aggies handle a late Saturday night road kickoff before an FBS trip is the honest read on the favorite.

Related UC Davis vs San Diego Markets

The most useful comparison board is Portland State at San Diego State, which prices the same Portland State team UC Davis just beat on the road. For the Big Sky context around this favorite, the Weber State at Southern Utah and Idaho State at Utah State boards both feature 2025 UC Davis opponents, and South Dakota at Northern Colorado is another FCS road-favorite board on the same Saturday. The full slate of cross-platform college boards sits on the NCAA football hub.