| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
State | +6.5 — | O 54.5 — | 0%0% | — |
Washington | -6.5 — | U 54.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Utah State | +6.5 — | O 54.5 — | 0%0% | — |
Washington | -6.5 — | U 54.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
No. 19 Washington (1-0) hosts Utah State (0-1) at 12:30 PM PT Saturday at Husky Stadium, and the openers explain the price: the Huskies beat Washington State 24-10 while the Aggies lost 29-17 at home to FCS Idaho State. As of September 10 the board reads Washington 97% and Utah State 4% on about $22.3K of lifetime volume. The live question is the spread, where Washington -24.5 carries $4.3K at 56%. It resolves on the final score Saturday, September 12, 2026.
Washington opened 2026 by beating Washington State 24-10 on September 6 and enters Week 2 at 1-0, ranked No. 19 in both the AP Top 25 and the AFCA Coaches Poll. Utah State opened by losing 29-17 at home to Idaho State, a Big Sky program from the FCS, and arrives 0-1. The board has priced that gap almost completely: as of September 10 Washington trades at a 97% implied probability on the moneyline and Utah State at 4%, on roughly $22.3K of lifetime volume across the moneyline, spread and total ladders. Kickoff is 12:30 PM PT on Saturday, September 12 at Husky Stadium in Seattle, with BTN carrying the broadcast.
The moneyline is settled and every independent number agrees on it. Washington at 97% sits alongside DraftKings, which lists the Huskies at -3600, and runs a little ahead of ESPN's matchup predictor at 94%. Three separate sources inside three points of each other is consensus, not an opening. Utah State at 4% is a 0-1 team that lost to an FCS opponent at home, and nothing on this board argues it is live.
The contested number is the spread. Washington -24.5 is the single heaviest line on the entire board, trading at 56% on about $4.3K of lifetime volume, which is more than every other spread and total rung combined. One step out, Washington -27.5 sits at 48%. That brackets the traded number between 24.5 and 27.5 and puts the DraftKings line of -26.5 squarely inside the range. Below the pivot the ladder is dead money at these prices: -16.5 is 78%, -13.5 is 84%, -6.5 is 92%. Above it, -30.5 is 43%, -33.5 is 35% and -35.5 is 29%.
The team totals price a specific scoreline rather than a vague blowout. Washington over 41.5 points is a 49% coin flip, and Utah State over 13.5 is 56% with over 14.5 at 47%. Read together that is a market projection of roughly Washington 41, Utah State 14, a 27-point margin that lands on top of where the spread ladder pivots. The full-game total corroborates it: Over 55.5 points scored trades at 50% exactly, the same 55.5 DraftKings is posting.
The first-half board is where the structure of a blowout shows up. Washington to win the first half by more than 14.5 points trades at 52%, and by more than 17.5 points at 49%. The market therefore expects somewhere between 15 and 17 of the projected 27-point margin to already be on the scoreboard at halftime. That is the practical read for the Washington team markets and the Over: the scoring window is the first two quarters, and the fourth quarter projects as backup snaps against a defense that surrendered 29 points to a Big Sky team nine days earlier.
The personnel behind the price is straightforward. Demond Williams Jr. went 24 of 35 for 268 yards and a touchdown in the opener and added 61 rushing yards on 7 carries with a second score, giving Jedd Fisch a quarterback who moves the offense with his legs as well as his arm. Chris Lawson led the receivers with 4 catches for 87 yards, and linebacker Jacob Manu posted 11 tackles. Utah State's opener ran the other way. McCae Hillstead threw 3 interceptions against Idaho State on 15 of 30 passing for 178 yards and 2 touchdowns, and Javen Jacobs needed 20 carries to reach 80 yards on the ground. Three giveaways from the quarterback position against an FCS defense is the number that put Bronco Mendenhall's team at 4% eight days later.
There is one shared reference point between the two programs, and it also favors Washington. Washington State beat Utah State 34-21 on December 22, 2025, then lost 24-10 at Washington on September 6. Two results against a common opponent, ten months apart, both pointing the same direction. Washington's 2025 finish adds to it: a 49-13 win over Purdue, a 48-14 win at UCLA, a 26-14 loss to Oregon and a 38-10 win over Boise State in December. Utah State closed 2025 with a 29-26 double-overtime loss at UNLV, a 28-17 win at Fresno State and a 25-24 loss to Boise State.
Line movement is minimal, and the capture window is short enough that it needs saying. The snapshot series on this board starts the afternoon of September 9 and runs to midday September 10, about 24 hours and 36 ticks on the moneyline. Washington moved from 96% to 97% and stayed inside that one-point band the whole way; Utah State went 5% to 4%. The Washington -24.5 leg traded between 54% and 56% across 29 captures and closed the window at 56%. No history exists on this board before September 9, so nothing here supports a claim about where the line opened.
Where the money sits is the one genuinely interesting feature of a 97-4 board. Of the $22.3K in lifetime volume, the Utah State moneyline leg at 4% has absorbed about $7.3K against $8.2K on the Washington side. A 4% contract taking nearly as much money as the 97% favorite is lottery-ticket buying, not informed positioning, and it is not the market disagreeing with itself. The considered opinions on this game are on the spread ladder, where $4.3K sits on that one -24.5 rung and another $727 on -27.5.
The market resolves on the final score of the game at Husky Stadium in Seattle on Saturday, September 12, 2026, with kickoff at 12:30 PM PT. The moneyline pays the team that wins the game, with overtime counting toward the result. Spread contracts settle against the final margin, and full-game, team and first-half totals settle against the points actually scored in the relevant period. Contracts settle once the game is declared final by the venue, and a cancellation or a postponement past the settlement window voids under each platform's own rules rather than resolving to a result.
Spread pivot: Washington -24.5 at 56% on $4.3K is the heaviest line on the board, with -27.5 one step out at 48%.
Turnover margin: McCae Hillstead threw 3 interceptions in the 29-17 loss to Idaho State, the single number most responsible for the 4% price.
Washington quarterback usage: Demond Williams Jr. produced 268 passing yards and 61 rushing yards with 2 total touchdowns in the 24-10 opener.
First-half scoring: Washington by more than 14.5 at halftime trades at 52%, so the market prices the margin as front-loaded and the fourth quarter as backup snaps.
Volume distribution: $7.3K of the $22.3K board sits on the Utah State moneyline at 4%, lottery-ticket flow rather than a signal to fade the favorite.
Both openers that set this price have their own boards: Washington's 24-10 win over Washington State on September 6 and Utah State's 29-17 loss to Idaho State the night before. Washington State plays again on the same Saturday in the Kansas State market, which is the closest thing to a calibration check on how this market reads the Cougars. For a Week 2 game where the moneyline is actually contested, the Oklahoma at Michigan board is the opposite of this one. Full slate pricing sits on the NCAA football hub, and team-level boards are at Utah State and Washington.
Resolves on the final score of Utah State at Washington at Husky Stadium in Seattle on Saturday, September 12, 2026, with kickoff scheduled for 12:30 PM PT on BTN. The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game, with overtime included in the result and each winning contract paying $1 per share while the losing side settles at $0. Spread contracts settle against the final margin of victory, and full-game, team-specific and first-half totals settle against the points actually scored in the applicable period. Contracts settle once the game is declared final. If the game is canceled, abandoned before it is official, or postponed beyond each platform's settlement window, the affected contracts void under that platform's own rules rather than resolving to a winner.
As of September 10, 2026 the board has Washington at a 97% implied probability on the moneyline and Utah State at 4%. The spread pivots at Washington -24.5, trading at 56%, and the full-game total is centered at 55.5 points with the Over at 50%. The live board above carries the current price on every rung.
Washington is favored at a 97% implied probability as of September 10, 2026 and is laying roughly 24.5 to 27.5 points on the spread ladder. DraftKings has the Huskies at -3600 on the moneyline and -26.5 on the spread, and ESPN's matchup predictor gives Washington 94%, so the traded price sits inside three points of both.
It resolves on the final score on Saturday, September 12, 2026, with kickoff at 12:30 PM PT at Husky Stadium in Seattle on BTN. Contracts settle once the game is declared final, and overtime counts toward the moneyline and spread results.
The spread ladder pivots between Washington -24.5 at 56% and -27.5 at 48%, with -16.5 at 78% below the pivot and -30.5 at 43% above it. The full-game total centers at 55.5 points, where the Over trades at 50%, and the team totals imply a scoreline near Washington 41, Utah State 14.
Watch the first-half market, where Washington by more than 14.5 points at halftime trades at 52% and the second half projects as backup snaps. Watch Utah State's quarterback situation after 3 interceptions against Idaho State on September 5, and watch whether the $4.3K on the -24.5 rung shifts toward -27.5 as game day arrives.