| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Wisconsin | +16.5 — | O 45.5 — | 0% | — |
Dame | -16.5 — | U 45.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Wisconsin | +16.5 — | O 45.5 — | 0% | — |
Notre Dame | -16.5 — | U 45.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
Notre Dame opens the 2026 season against Wisconsin at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, 7:30 PM ET on NBC, and the prediction market has drawn the widest gap on the Sunday card. Notre Dame went 10-2 in 2025 at 42.0 points per game; Wisconsin went 4-8 at 12.8 points per game and was shut out twice. The board carries roughly $181K in lifetime volume on Kalshi with no Polymarket leg, and it settles on the final score. Current prices are on the live board above.
Notre Dame is the designated home team in a stadium inside the underdog's home state. Lambeau Field hosts the opener for both programs on Sunday, September 6, 2026, at 7:30 PM ET on NBC, and neither team has played a snap this season, so the market is pricing 2025 form and nothing else. That form is lopsided: Notre Dame scored 42.0 points per game across 12 games in 2025 while Wisconsin scored 12.8. No other number on this board matters as much as that one.
This is a one-book board. Every line trades on Kalshi and Polymarket has no market on the game, so there is no cross-platform price to compare and nothing here reads as a consensus of two exchanges. As of the September 2 captures, Notre Dame is the 93c moneyline favorite and Wisconsin sits at 9c, which is where a top-five program facing a 4-8 team belongs. DraftKings independently lists Notre Dame at 20.5 with a total of 47.5, the same two numbers the Kalshi ladder pivots on.
The volume distribution is the more interesting read. The Wisconsin moneyline ticker holds $134.5K of the board's $181K, against $21.8K on the Notre Dame side. Underdog tickers routinely carry the larger notional in college football because a 9c contract is cheap to buy in size, so this is a reflection of ticket price, not a signal that money is fading the favorite.
Notre Dame's 10-2 in 2025 came after an 0-2 start, a 24-27 loss at Miami and a 40-41 loss to Texas A&M, followed by ten straight wins. Across that streak Notre Dame averaged 44.0 points and allowed 14.3, including 70-7 over Syracuse. Wisconsin finished 4-8 and 2-7 in the Big Ten, was shut out 37-0 by Iowa and 34-0 by Ohio State, scored seven points or fewer five times, and cleared 27 points exactly once, in a 42-10 win over Middle Tennessee. Marcus Freeman and Luke Fickell are the head coaches of record for 2026.
The spread ladder pivots on Notre Dame -20.5 at 50c, and that rung alone holds $16.8K, more than every other spread rung on the board combined. The market has drawn the coin flip at exactly three touchdowns. That is a notably restrained number against Notre Dame's 2025 tape, where the average margin over the ten-game win streak was 29.7 points. The rungs on either side price coherently in the traded zone: Notre Dame -16.5 at 61c, -17.5 at 58c, -21.5 at 44c, -23.5 at 42c. Above and below that band the ladder thins out and prices stop moving in order, which is a book with no depth rather than a read on the game.
The game total pivots on Over 47.5 at 49c, again matching the sportsbook number. The team totals are where the thin book shows: Notre Dame over 34.5 trades at 57c and Wisconsin over 9.5 at 48c, so the two team-total midpoints imply roughly 45 combined points against a 47.5 game pivot. Treat that as pricing slack on legs holding $46 and $19 of volume, not as a signal worth acting on. Wisconsin's team-total ladder carries no price at all above 13.5.
The Wisconsin over 9.5 line is the sharpest question on the board at 48c. Wisconsin reached double digits in seven of 12 games in 2025 but scored zero twice against Big Ten defenses, and Notre Dame allowed 14.3 points per game over its 2025 win streak. A first-half line of Notre Dame by more than 13.5 at 44c says the market expects the game decided before halftime, which puts the second half in backup-quarterback territory and is the mechanism that drags a 47.5 total under.
Snapshot history on this board runs from September 2 to September 3, roughly 24 hours, and it is flat where it counts. The Notre Dame moneyline held 93c across 32 captures. Wisconsin moved 8c to 9c. Notre Dame -20.5 went 51c to 50c and Over 47.5 did not move across 25 captures. The only real repricing was on short spread rungs with no volume: Notre Dame -1.5 went 86c to 93c and -3.5 went 82c to 92c as those legs filled in toward the moneyline. Nothing in the captured window suggests the number is in motion.
The market settles on the final score of the September 6, 2026 game at Lambeau Field. The moneyline pays the winning team, the spread rungs pay based on the final margin, and the total and team totals pay on points actually scored, overtime included. Kalshi settles after the game is declared final, typically the same night. A postponement moves settlement to the rescheduled date; a cancellation voids under platform rules.
Wisconsin's scoring floor: the Badgers averaged 12.8 points per game in 2025 and were shut out twice, which is what puts their team total at 9.5.
The 20.5 pivot: Notre Dame's 2025 win streak carried a 29.7-point average margin, so the market has priced this nine points under recent form.
Opener variance: neither team has played in 2026, so no current-season data exists to correct a preseason misprice.
Venue: Lambeau Field is in Green Bay, Wisconsin, so the designated home favorite plays in front of a heavily Badger crowd on NBC.
One-book depth: this is a Kalshi-only board with $181K lifetime volume concentrated in three legs, so rungs outside the traded band carry stale or absent prices.
Both programs have live entity pages: the Notre Dame hub tracks every Irish market on the board and the Wisconsin hub does the same for the Badgers. The full week's card sits on the NCAA football hub, and individual award futures including the Heisman Trophy market reprice off openers like this one. For cross-sport coverage on the same Sunday, the sports index carries every live board.
Resolves on the final score of the Wisconsin at Notre Dame game played September 6, 2026 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin, scheduled for 7:30 PM ET on NBC. The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game and pays $1 per share on the winning side, with all losing contracts settling at $0. Spread contracts resolve on the final margin of victory, and the game total, team totals, and first-half markets resolve on points actually scored, with overtime included in full-game settlement. Kalshi settles once the game is declared final, usually the same night. If the game is postponed it settles on the rescheduled date; if it is canceled outright, contracts void under platform rules.
As of the September 2, 2026 captures, Notre Dame is the 93c moneyline favorite on Kalshi and Wisconsin trades at 9c. The spread pivots on Notre Dame -20.5 at 50c and the game total pivots on Over 47.5 at 49c. The live board above carries current prices.
Kalshi only. Polymarket has no market on this game, so every moneyline, spread, total, team-total and first-half line on the board is a single-book Kalshi price with no cross-platform comparison available.
Notre Dame, by 20.5 points. That rung holds $16.8K, the deepest single leg on the board outside the moneyline, and DraftKings independently lists the same 20.5 spread with a 47.5 total.
On the final score of the September 6, 2026 game at Lambeau Field, kickoff 7:30 PM ET on NBC. Kalshi settles once the game is declared final, typically the same night, with overtime included in full-game settlement.
Wisconsin's team total at 9.5, which sat at 48c and is the closest call on the board given the Badgers scored seven points or fewer five times in 2025. Also watch whether the 20.5 spread holds, since it prices nine points under Notre Dame's 29.7-point average margin during its 2025 win streak.