Packers vs Vikings Prediction Market Odds, September 13, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Main ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Packers | +16.5 — | O 249.5 — | 0%0% | — |
Vikings | -16.5 — | U 249.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Main ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Green Bay Packers | +16.5 — | O 249.5 — | 0%0% | — |
Minnesota Vikings | -16.5 — | U 249.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
Minnesota is the narrow home favorite in this NFC North opener, trading at 54c on the moneyline as of September 5, 2026 (54c Kalshi, 54c Polymarket) against 47c for Green Bay (47c Kalshi, 47c Polymarket). The 2025 finish points the other way: the Packers went 9-7-1 and took the NFC's No. 7 seed while the Vikings went 9-8 and missed the playoffs, but Minnesota closed on five straight wins including a 16-3 win over Green Bay in this building on January 4, 2026. The board has drawn roughly $271K in cumulative volume across the two platforms and now carries a full spread ladder, a total ladder and posted prop rungs. Use the live board above for current prices.
Green Bay opens the 2026 season indoors at U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday, September 13, with a 4:25 PM ET kickoff on CBS, and the market prices this NFC North opener about as close to even as a game gets. Minnesota trades at 54c on the moneyline as of September 5, 2026 (54c Kalshi, 54c Polymarket) against 47c for Green Bay (47c Kalshi, 47c Polymarket). The board holds roughly $271K in cumulative volume across the two platforms, and the spread ladder puts the Vikings between 1.5 and 2.5 points rather than a full field goal.
Packers vs Vikings Market Context
The 2025 resumes argue for the road side. Green Bay finished 9-7-1, took the No. 7 seed in the NFC and outscored opponents 391 to 360, then lost its last four regular-season games and fell at Chicago 31-27 in the wild card round after leading 21-3 at halftime, with the Bears scoring 25 points in the fourth quarter. Minnesota finished 9-8 at 344 to 333 on point differential and missed the postseason as the No. 8 seed, but closed on a five-game winning streak whose final act was a 16-3 win over Green Bay at U.S. Bank Stadium on January 4, 2026. The season series split: Green Bay took the Week 12 meeting at Lambeau Field 23-6.
The quarterback change is why the price ignores those records. Kyler Murray is Minnesota's listed starter, with J.J. McCarthy second and Carson Wentz third. Murray played only 5 games for Arizona in 2025, throwing for 962 yards with 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on a 68.3% completion rate and an 88.6 rating while adding 173 rushing yards. He displaces McCarthy, whose 2025 season ran 10 games for 1,632 yards with 11 touchdowns against 12 interceptions, a 57.6% completion rate, a 72.6 rating and 27 sacks taken. Vikings general manager Nolan Teasley said on September 2, 2026 that he expects McCarthy on the Week 1 roster to develop, which settles the depth chart question the board was carrying all summer.
Green Bay counters with continuity at the position and holes everywhere else. Jordan Love threw for 3,381 yards with 23 touchdowns against 6 interceptions in 2025, completing 66.3% on a 101.2 rating, and Matt LaFleur returns as head coach. What the Packers do not have is their two most valuable non-quarterbacks. Josh Jacobs, who ran for 929 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2025, sits on the commissioner exempt list after being charged with two misdemeanors, battery and criminal damage to property, with a court appearance scheduled for September 10. Micah Parsons is on the reserve PUP list with a knee injury and is not eligible to return until Week 5. Green Bay traded with Pittsburgh for running back Kaleb Johnson on August 30 and signed tight end Jonnu Smith on August 27, and the backfield now lists MarShawn Lloyd ahead of Chris Brooks and Johnson. Tucker Kraft, who caught 32 passes for 489 yards last season, is questionable with a knee. The Packers team hub tracks how that attrition prices across the season.
Minnesota's supporting cast is the settled one. Justin Jefferson caught 84 passes for 1,048 yards in 2025, Jordan Addison added 42 receptions for 610 yards in 14 games, and Jauan Jennings is the third listed starter. Aaron Jones Sr. leads the backfield after 548 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns across 12 games. Against a Green Bay front missing Parsons, that is the matchup the 54c price is buying.
The spread ladder states the market's real number better than the moneyline does. Minnesota -1.5 at 49c is the heaviest rung on the board at about $17.8K, with Green Bay -2.5 at 42c on roughly $9.0K and Green Bay -6.5 at 28c on $8.1K behind it. Minnesota -2.5 prices at 47c and Green Bay -1.5 at 44.5c, so the board is straddling a Minnesota margin near two points. The total sits close to 46: over 45.5 trades at 52.5c on about $3.4K, over 44.5 at 55.5c on $2.9K, and over 46.5 at 49c. Both numbers match the sportsbook consensus of Minnesota by 1.5 with a 46.5 total, so the exchanges and the books are reading this game the same way.
Cross-platform disagreement is effectively absent. Kalshi and Polymarket print identical numbers on both moneyline legs, 54c on Minnesota and 47c on Green Bay, and the widest gap on any priced rung is 2c on Green Bay -2.5 (43c Kalshi, 41c Polymarket). Neither venue offers the better price today. Volume is the lopsided part: the Green Bay moneyline leg holds about $141K of the board's $271K against roughly $52.6K on the Minnesota leg, so the money has concentrated on the side the price does not favor. This board carries no captured snapshot history yet, so no claim about how the line has moved is supportable from it. Passing-yard ladders are posted for both Love and Murray, but they carry no prices and no volume.
When the Packers vs Vikings Market Resolves
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game, scheduled for 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, September 13, 2026 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. Spread rungs settle against the final margin and total rungs against combined points scored, overtime included. The winning contract pays $1 per share and the losing side settles at zero, with Kalshi and Polymarket each grading once the result is official. If the game is postponed past a platform's resolution window, relocated, or voided, settlement follows that platform's published game-market rules.
Key Packers vs Vikings Factors
Murray over McCarthy: Kyler Murray is Minnesota's listed QB1 after 5 games and 962 yards for Arizona in 2025, replacing a McCarthy season that produced 11 touchdowns against 12 interceptions on a 72.6 rating.
Parsons is out: Green Bay's best defender is on the reserve PUP list with a knee injury and is not eligible to return until Week 5, which is the largest single subtraction from the 47c side.
No Jacobs: the commissioner exempt list removes a back who ran for 929 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2025, leaving MarShawn Lloyd, Chris Brooks and August trade addition Kaleb Johnson to carry the run game.
The two-point number: Minnesota -1.5 at 49c is the board's heaviest spread rung at about $17.8K, and Green Bay -2.5 at 42c sits behind it, so the market is pricing a two-point home margin rather than a field goal.
Books agree, money does not: Kalshi and Polymarket match exactly on both moneyline legs, yet the Green Bay leg carries roughly $141K against $52.6K on Minnesota.
Last meeting in this building: Minnesota won 16-3 at U.S. Bank Stadium on January 4, 2026, after Green Bay had taken the Week 12 game at Lambeau Field 23-6.
Related NFL Markets
The division stakes for this opener price out on the 2026 NFC North market, and the season-long read on both clubs lives on the NFC Championship board and the Super Bowl LXI champion market. Compare this game against the rest of the slate on the NFL prediction markets hub and follow Minnesota's week-to-week pricing on the Vikings team hub.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to the team that wins the Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings game, scheduled for 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, September 13, 2026 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. The winning team's moneyline contract pays $1 per share and the losing team's contract settles at $0, graded off the final official score including overtime. Spread rungs settle against the final margin of victory and total rungs against combined points scored by both teams. Kalshi and Polymarket each grade once the result is official. If the game is postponed past a platform's resolution window, relocated, or canceled, settlement follows that platform's published game-market rules rather than the nominal date.
Key Factors
- Kyler Murray is Minnesota's listed starter after 5 games and 962 yards for Arizona in 2025, displacing J.J. McCarthy and his 11 touchdowns against 12 interceptions
- Micah Parsons is on the reserve PUP list with a knee injury and is not eligible to return until Week 5, the largest subtraction from the Green Bay side
- Josh Jacobs is on the commissioner exempt list, removing 929 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns from the 2026 Packers backfield
- Minnesota -1.5 at 49c is the heaviest spread rung at about $17.8K, so the market prices a two-point home margin rather than a field goal
- Kalshi and Polymarket match exactly on both moneyline legs while the Green Bay leg carries roughly $141K against $52.6K on Minnesota
- Minnesota won the last meeting in this building 16-3 on January 4, 2026, after Green Bay took the Week 12 game 23-6 at Lambeau Field
What are the current Packers vs Vikings odds?
As of September 5, 2026, Minnesota is the 54c moneyline favorite (54c Kalshi, 54c Polymarket) and Green Bay is 47c (47c Kalshi, 47c Polymarket). The board holds roughly $271K in cumulative volume across the two platforms.
Where can I trade the Packers vs Vikings market?
The game trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket, and the two venues print identical prices on both moneyline legs. The widest gap on any priced rung is 2c on Green Bay -2.5, so neither platform holds a better number today.
Who is favored in Packers vs Vikings and by how much?
Minnesota is favored at 54c, an implied win probability near 54%, with Green Bay at 47c. The spread ladder is more precise: Minnesota -1.5 trades at 49c on about $17.8K, which puts the market's number near a two-point home margin.
When does the Packers vs Vikings market resolve?
Kickoff is 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, September 13, 2026 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, on CBS. The moneyline settles to the winning team once the game is final, with overtime included.
What should I watch before Packers vs Vikings resolves?
Watch Kyler Murray's first start for Minnesota, Josh Jacobs' September 10 court appearance and his commissioner exempt status, and whether the total settles above or below 46 as the week's reports land. Micah Parsons is not eligible to return from the reserve PUP list until Week 5, so Green Bay's pass rush is a known subtraction.