Patriots vs Jaguars Prediction Market Odds, September 27, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Patriots | +2.5 45%45% | O 44.5 53%53% | 15%14% | 15% Kalshi |
â–¶Jaguars | -2.5 55%55% | U 44.5 47%47% | 57%56% | 57% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶New England Patriots | +2.5 | O 44.5 | 15% Kalshi | |
â–¶Jacksonville Jaguars | -2.5 | U 44.5 | 57% Kalshi |
Jacksonville is the home favorite in a game the board prices far tighter than a field goal. Both teams are 1-1, both are 1-0 at home and 0-1 on the road, and the Jaguars sit at 60 percent on the moneyline against 41 percent for New England as of September 23, with Kalshi and Polymarket quoting the identical number on both sides. Roughly $301,000 has traded across the two platforms. Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 27 at EverBank Stadium on CBS, and the live board above carries the current prices.
The Patriots and Jaguars reach Week 3 with the same 1-1 record and opposite profiles. New England has scored 30 points in two games and allowed 16. Jacksonville has scored 47 and allowed 30. The board splits that difference and lands on Jacksonville by roughly a field goal, which puts the entire game on the wrong side of the most expensive number in football.
Patriots vs Jaguars Market Context
New England opened with a 13-10 loss at Seattle and then held Pittsburgh to three points in a 20-3 home win. Two games is a small sample, but 16 points allowed is the lowest figure either team brings into Sunday and it is the reason the game total sits where it does. Jacksonville opened with a 34-10 win over Cleveland at EverBank Stadium and then lost 20-13 at Denver, a swing of 21 points of scoring between weeks. Both clubs are 1-0 at home and 0-1 on the road, so the only separating record on the page is which building the game is in, and that building belongs to Jacksonville.
The board carries about $301,000 in lifetime volume across Kalshi and Polymarket, with the moneyline the deepest leg. The cross-platform read is unusually clean: both venues quote Jacksonville at 60 percent and New England at 41 percent, a one-point overround and no arbitrage between the two books. That is rare enough on a 1:00 PM Sunday game to be worth saying out loud, and it means the value hunting on this page belongs in the spread ladder rather than the winner market.
Movement has been minimal in the captured window. Across 80 Polymarket snapshots between roughly 9:30 AM ET on Tuesday, September 22 and 9:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 23, Jacksonville's moneyline never left the 59 to 61 band and has printed 60 on nearly every capture since Tuesday afternoon. Kalshi's Jaguars -2.5 line ran 55 to 56 over the same stretch and printed 54 to 55 on the most recent captures. This is a board that has found its number and is waiting on the injury report, not one being pushed.
What the Patriots vs Jaguars Spread and Total Imply
The spread ladder is where the pricing gets interesting. Jacksonville -1.5 trades at 56.5 percent and Jacksonville -2.5 at 54.5 percent, then the rung to -3.5 drops it to 44.5 percent. That 10-point cliff across a single half-point step is the three-point key number doing exactly what it does every NFL Sunday. Put differently, the Jaguars are a 60 percent favorite to win the game and only a 44.5 percent proposition to win it by four or more, so roughly 15 points of their win probability lives entirely in a one-to-three point margin. Buying Jacksonville at -3.5 and buying it at -2.5 are not the same trade, and the board charges accordingly.
The total is pinned at 45.5. Over 44.5 prices at 52.5 percent, over 45.5 at 48.5 percent, and over 46.5 at 46 percent, which brackets the market number cleanly between 45 and 46. Team totals tell the same story from the other direction: Jacksonville over 20.5 points sits at 65.5 percent and New England over 20.5 at 53 percent, a 12-point gap that is essentially the entire spread expressed as scoring. First-half pricing agrees, with over 20.5 first-half points at 58 percent and over 22.5 at 51.5 percent, implying a first half worth about 22 points and a game that does its scoring at an even pace rather than in a late shootout.
Kalshi and Polymarket agree within two points on every priced rung of both ladders, so there is no venue-selection edge here. Note that the totals and spread ladders on an NFL board carry many duplicate and price-less rungs; the figures above come only from lines a book is actually quoting.
When the Patriots vs Jaguars Market Resolves
The market resolves on the final score of the Week 3 game at EverBank Stadium on Sunday, September 27, 2026, scheduled for 1:00 PM ET on CBS. Moneyline contracts settle to the team that wins the game outright, spread contracts settle against the listed margin, and total and team-total contracts settle against the combined or per-team points scored including overtime. Settlement happens on each platform once the game is official.
Key Patriots vs Jaguars Catalysts
New England's defense: 16 points allowed across two games, including a 20-3 win over Pittsburgh, is the number the 45.5-point game total is fighting.
The three-point key number: Jacksonville prices at 54.5 percent to cover 2.5 and 44.5 percent to cover 3.5, so which side of three you buy is the whole trade.
Home and road splits: both teams are 1-0 at home and 0-1 away, and this one is in Jacksonville.
Jacksonville's volatility: 34 points against Cleveland and 13 at Denver in back-to-back weeks is a 21-point week-over-week swing that the team-total market has not fully priced.
Cross-platform agreement: Kalshi and Polymarket quote the moneyline identically, so any edge has to come from the ladder rungs, not from venue shopping.
Related NFL Markets
Jacksonville's season-long picture trades on the Jaguars playoff market and the AFC South division market, both of which take a direct hit from a home loss to a .500 AFC East team. New England's side of it prices on the Patriots season win total and the AFC East division market, where a road win here would be the second straight result running ahead of the preseason number. For the rest of the Week 3 board, including the Bengals at Steelers game, start at the NFL hub, or go straight to the Jaguars team page and the Patriots team page.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves on the final score of the New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars game at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida on Sunday, September 27, 2026, scheduled for 1:00 PM ET on CBS. Moneyline contracts pay $1 per share to the team that wins the game outright, with overtime included. Spread contracts settle against the listed margin, and game-total and team-total contracts settle against the combined or per-team points scored, again including overtime. Each platform settles once the game is official, typically within hours of the final whistle. If the game is postponed, it resolves on the rescheduled date; if it is canceled outright or never played, contracts void and refund under each platform's specific rules.
Key Factors
- New England has allowed 16 points across two games, including holding Pittsburgh to three in a 20-3 Week 2 win, which is the case against the 45.5-point game total.
- The three-point key number is the whole trade: Jacksonville prices at 54.5 percent to cover 2.5 and 44.5 percent to cover 3.5, a 10-point drop across one rung.
- Both teams are 1-0 at home and 0-1 on the road, and this game is at EverBank Stadium, where Jacksonville beat Cleveland 34-10 in Week 1.
- Jacksonville swung from 34 points against Cleveland to 13 at Denver in consecutive weeks, and its team total sits at 65.5 percent to clear 20.5.
- Kalshi and Polymarket quote the moneyline identically at 60 percent Jacksonville, so the cross-platform edge is in the spread ladder rather than the winner market.
- New England travels to Buffalo in Week 4 and Jacksonville goes to Cincinnati, so both teams are selling out for a result before a harder road trip.
Who is favored in Patriots vs Jaguars?
Jacksonville. As of September 23, 2026 the Jaguars trade at 60 percent on the moneyline and the Patriots at 41 percent, with Kalshi and Polymarket quoting the identical number on both sides. Check the live board above for the current prices.
What is the spread and total for Patriots vs Jaguars?
The market has Jacksonville favored by about three points and a game total of 45.5. Jacksonville -2.5 prices at 54.5 percent and -3.5 at 44.5 percent, while over 44.5 points prices at 52.5 percent and over 45.5 at 48.5 percent.
Where does the Patriots vs Jaguars market trade?
On both Kalshi and Polymarket. The board carries roughly $301,000 in lifetime volume across the two platforms and includes moneyline, spread, game total, team totals, first-half and second-half markets.
What time is Patriots vs Jaguars and what channel?
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 27, 2026 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida, broadcast on CBS. It is a Week 3 game.
What are the Patriots and Jaguars records?
Both teams are 1-1. New England lost 13-10 at Seattle in Week 1 and beat Pittsburgh 20-3 at home in Week 2. Jacksonville beat Cleveland 34-10 at home in Week 1 and lost 20-13 at Denver in Week 2.
When does the Patriots vs Jaguars market resolve?
It resolves on the final score of the September 27, 2026 game, overtime included. Both platforms settle once the game is official, generally within hours of the final whistle.