Jets vs Bears Prediction Market Odds, October 4, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Main ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Jets | -7.5 — | O 124.5 — | 0%0% | — |
Bears | +7.5 — | U 124.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Main ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Jets | -7.5 — | O 124.5 — | 0%0% | — |
Chicago Bears | +7.5 — | U 124.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
Chicago is a 3.5-point home favorite without its starting quarterback, and the market is pricing that absence more cautiously than the models are. Caleb Williams is out with a hamstring injury, which puts Case Keenum under center for a Bears team that is 2-1 and has outscored opponents by 36 points in three games. The Jets arrive 1-2 and without Breece Hall. The board carries roughly $2.2M in cumulative volume across Kalshi and Polymarket, and the live board above has the current cross-platform prices. Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on FOX at Soldier Field, and the market resolves when the game goes final on October 4, 2026.
Chicago has the better record, the better point differential and home field, and the market still will not price the Bears past the mid 60s. The reason is at quarterback. Caleb Williams is out with a hamstring injury, and Case Keenum leads Chicago in passing with 24 completions on 34 attempts for 247 yards and two touchdowns. Jets vs Bears odds have Chicago at 64% rather than the high 60s a 2-1 home team with a plus-36 point differential would normally command.
Jets vs Bears Odds: What the Board Says
As of 9:58 AM ET on October 4, Chicago trades at 64% on both Kalshi and Polymarket. New York sits at 36% on Kalshi and 37% on Polymarket. That one-point gap on the underdog leg is the widest disagreement anywhere on this board, which means there is no venue to shop on roughly $2.2M of cumulative volume. When two exchanges with separate order flow land inside a point on every leg, the number is consensus rather than an artifact of one thin book.
The snapshot series the board has captured reaches back to about 8:08 PM ET Saturday night, and inside that window almost nothing has happened. Chicago has held 64% across 53 captures. New York has drifted from 37% to 36% across 56 captures. That is a flat market, not a repricing, and it is worth saying plainly because a quarterback scratch of this size often moves a line overnight and this one did not.
The disagreement that does exist is between the exchanges and the models. ESPN's matchup predictor gives Chicago a 67.8% chance in this game. The market has the Bears nearly four points lower. The spread is where the tension concentrates: Chicago at -3.5 prices at exactly 50% on both venues and has sat there across 76 captures, while Chicago at -2.5 prices at 60%. That 10-point cliff across the field goal is the entire trade on this game, and the DraftKings number of Chicago -3.5 sits right on top of the coin flip.
Jets vs Bears Odds Without Caleb Williams
With Keenum starting, Chicago's offense runs through D'Andre Swift, who has 54 carries for 253 yards and three touchdowns and prices at 49% for an anytime touchdown, the highest mark on the board. Kalif Raymond leads the team with 19 catches for 214 yards and prices at 47% to clear 3.5 receptions. Behind them the board gets thin fast: Kyle Monangai at 32%, Luther Burden III at 28%, Colston Loveland at 26% and Cole Kmet at 9% for an anytime touchdown. That is a distribution consistent with a run-first game plan for a backup quarterback.
The Bears are also compromised in the two places that matter against this opponent. Left tackle Braxton Jones is on injured reserve with a knee injury. In the secondary, Kyler Gordon is out with a calf injury, Anthony Johnson Jr. is out, and Cam Lewis is doubtful with a hip injury. That is three defensive backs down or in question against a passing game completing better than 75% of its attempts.
Chicago's team total prices the offense at roughly 23 points. Over 20.5 trades at 63%, over 22.5 at 55% and over 24.5 at 45%. Chicago to score more than 2.5 touchdowns trades at 53%, which is a market expecting three Bears touchdowns and not four.
What the Jets Bring to Soldier Field
Geno Smith has been the most efficient part of New York's season, 77 of 102 for 783 yards and four touchdowns, a completion rate of 75.5%. Garrett Wilson is the target that matters with 21 catches for 243 yards and two touchdowns, priced at 49% to clear 6.5 receptions and 37% for an anytime touchdown.
The backfield is the problem. Breece Hall is out with a quadriceps injury, which leaves Braelon Allen, who has 19 carries for 61 yards and a touchdown, as the lead back at 42% for an anytime touchdown. Receiver Adonai Mitchell is out with a finger injury and guard Dylan Parham is out with a knee injury, so the Jets are down a starting back, a starting guard and a rotation receiver. The most aggressively priced prop on the whole board belongs to New York anyway: Isaiah Williams to clear 19.5 receiving yards at 61%.
The case for the Jets is in the margins of their losses. New York is 1-2, but it lost 20-17 in overtime to Green Bay at home and 31-24 at Detroit, so both defeats came inside one score. The Jets have scored 64 points and allowed 61 on the season. New York to win the first quarter trades at 42%, and the Jets team total sits near 19 points, with over 17.5 at 59% and over 20.5 at 45%. New York to score more than 1.5 touchdowns trades at 70%, dropping to 38% for more than 2.5.
The Total and the Conditions
The total is the one number both sides of the market agree on. Over 43.5 points trades at 49.5%, matching the DraftKings total of 43.5 almost exactly, with over 41.5 at 55.5% and over 45.5 at 42.5%. Chicago's three games have averaged 47.3 combined points, inflated by a 59-37 win at Carolina. New York's three have averaged 41.7. The market has split the two.
There is no weather discount in that number. ESPN's forecast for Soldier Field is 66 degrees with no precipitation and gusts to 13 mph, which is close to ideal for an outdoor October game in Chicago. The margin buckets price a close game: Chicago by 1 to 6 points trades at 14%, New York by 1 to 6 at 12%, and Chicago by 7 to 13 at 11%. A safety trades at 8%.
Chicago is 1-1 at home this season, a 27-7 win over Philadelphia on September 29 and a 9-3 loss to Minnesota on September 20. New York is 1-1 on the road. More NFL markets and the rest of the football board carry the week's other games.
When the Jets vs Bears Market Resolves
The market resolves on October 4, 2026, once the game at Soldier Field is official. The moneyline pays $1 per share on the team that wins the game and the losing side settles at $0.
Resolution Criteria
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game at Soldier Field on October 4, 2026, paying $1 per share on the winner and $0 on the loser, with overtime included in the result. Spread contracts settle against the final margin, so Chicago -3.5 requires a Bears win by at least four points, and total contracts settle against combined points scored by both teams including overtime. Team total and touchdown contracts settle against the official final box score. Kalshi lists the game under the KXNFLGAME-26OCT04NYJCHI series and Polymarket lists the matching two-way market, and both venues settle once the NFL declares the game final on the scheduled date. If the game is postponed, contracts follow each venue's published postponement rules rather than voiding automatically.
Key Factors
- Caleb Williams is out with a hamstring injury and Case Keenum leads Chicago in passing with 247 yards on 34 attempts, the swing factor in a market holding the Bears about four points below ESPN's 67.8% model projection
- Chicago at -3.5 prices at exactly 50% on both venues and has held there across 76 captures, while Chicago at -2.5 prices at 60%, a 10-point cliff that makes the field goal the entire trade
- Breece Hall is out with a quadriceps injury, leaving Braelon Allen and his 19 carries for 61 yards as the lead back at 42% for an anytime touchdown
- Chicago's secondary is down Kyler Gordon with a calf injury and Anthony Johnson Jr., with Cam Lewis doubtful, against a Geno Smith passing game completing 75.5% of its attempts
- Kalshi and Polymarket sit within one point on every leg of this board, so roughly $2.2M of cumulative volume offers no venue to shop
- The total sits at 43.5 against Chicago averaging 47.3 combined points and New York 41.7, in a 66-degree forecast with gusts to 13 mph and no precipitation
What are the current Jets vs Bears odds?
As of 9:58 AM ET on October 4, 2026, Chicago is the favorite at 64% on both Kalshi and Polymarket. New York trades at 36% on Kalshi and 37% on Polymarket. The live board above carries the current prices.
Where does the Jets vs Bears market trade?
Both Kalshi and Polymarket list this game. Kalshi carries it under the KXNFLGAME-26OCT04NYJCHI series along with spread, total, team total and player markets, and Polymarket lists the matching two-way moneyline. The board aggregates roughly $2.2M in cumulative volume across the two venues.
Who is favored in Jets vs Bears and by how much?
Chicago is favored at a 64% implied probability, which is about four points below ESPN's matchup predictor figure of 67.8%. On the spread, Chicago -3.5 is a true coin flip at 50% on both venues, matching the DraftKings line of Chicago -3.5.
What is the spread and total for Jets vs Bears?
Chicago is a 3.5-point favorite and the total is 43.5 points. Over 43.5 trades at 49.5%, over 41.5 at 55.5% and over 45.5 at 42.5%. Chicago's team total implies roughly 23 points and New York's implies roughly 19.
When does the Jets vs Bears market resolve?
The market resolves on October 4, 2026, after the 1:00 PM ET kickoff at Soldier Field on FOX, once the NFL declares the game final. Moneyline, spread and total contracts all settle against the official final score with overtime included.