Blackhawks vs Lightning Prediction Market Odds, November 5, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Main ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Blackhawks | +2.5 53%53% | O 5.5 64%63% | 20%19% | 20% Kalshi |
▶Lightning | -2.5 47%47% | U 5.5 36%37% | 81%81% | 81% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Main ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Chicago Blackhawks | +2.5 | O 5.5 | 20% Kalshi | |
▶Tampa Bay Lightning | -2.5 | U 5.5 | 81% Kalshi |
Tampa Bay is a heavy favorite in Blackhawks vs Lightning: as of the morning of November 5, Kalshi prices the Lightning at 78c and Chicago at 21c, about a 78% implied chance of a Tampa Bay win, and Polymarket's listing sits near 80c. Tampa Bay (9-3-2) is 7-0-0 at home, while Chicago (4-11-1) is 0-6-1 on the road and plays the second night of a back-to-back after a 5-3 loss at Florida. Puck drop is 7:00 PM ET at Benchmark International Arena.
The Blackhawks vs Lightning board pairs a home team that has not lost at home with a visitor that has not won on the road. Tampa Bay is 7-0-0 at Benchmark International Arena and 9-3-2 overall with 20 points, fourth in the Atlantic, per NHL standings as of November 5. Chicago is 4-11-1 with 9 points, last in the Central, 0-6-1 away from the United Center and outscored 63-36 through 16 games. The board carries roughly $24K in volume, about $19K of it on the Kalshi moneyline.
Blackhawks vs Lightning Odds and Market Context
As of Thursday morning Kalshi prices Tampa Bay at 78c and Chicago at 21c, a roughly 78% implied chance of a Lightning win. Polymarket's own moneyline listing for the game showed the Lightning near 80c at the same time, so the two venues agree within about 2c and there is no cross-venue edge on the favorite. The board above currently carries Kalshi's moneyline only, alongside both venues' puck line. DraftKings lists Tampa Bay at -425 on ESPN, about 81% before the vig, slightly richer than the exchange price.
The line has firmed toward Tampa Bay across the captures we hold. On Kalshi the Lightning traded at 77c at 9:31 AM ET Wednesday and 79c at 8:40 AM ET Thursday, while Chicago slid from 24c on Wednesday afternoon to 21c by Thursday morning, with the first leg of that drop arriving after Chicago's 5-3 loss at Florida on Wednesday night. The daily series is steadier: Tampa Bay opened its Kalshi listing at 71c on October 30 and has traded between 77c and 81c every day since October 31.
The alt lines say the market expects a margin. Tampa Bay -1.5 is 60c on both Kalshi and Polymarket, so a two-goal Lightning win is priced as more likely than not, and roughly 18c of the 78c moneyline sits on a one-goal Tampa Bay win. That leaves about a 40% implied chance that Chicago stays within a goal or wins outright. The total centers on 6.5: Over 6.5 is 50c on Kalshi, a coin flip that matches the 6.5 DraftKings total shown on ESPN, and Over 5.5 is 63c. Tampa Bay -2.5 at 47c on Kalshi is the one line that treats a three-goal win as close to even.
Blackhawks vs Lightning Form, Goaltending and Injuries
Chicago is 3-6-1 in its last 10 and has dropped three in a row: 5-4 in overtime at Boston on October 31, 5-2 at home to Colorado on November 2 and 5-3 at Florida on November 4. Thursday is the second night of a back-to-back for the Blackhawks, while Tampa Bay last played on November 3, a 4-2 home win over Detroit. The Lightning are 6-2-2 in their last 10.
Scoring depth is the gap the price reflects. Per NHL club stats, Nikita Kucherov leads Tampa Bay with 20 points (4 goals, 16 assists) in 14 games, Brandon Hagel has 16 points and Jake Guentzel 14, with Hagel and Guentzel at 8 goals each. Connor Bedard leads Chicago with 12 points in 10 games, and Roman Kantserov leads the team with 7 goals.
ESPN lists Arvid Soderblom as Chicago's expected starter and Andrei Vasilevskiy for Tampa Bay as of November 5, both unconfirmed. Soderblom is 0-2-1 with a 4.66 goals-against average and .829 save percentage in three starts; Spencer Knight (4-9-0, .892) has started the other 13 Chicago games. Vasilevskiy is 7-3-1 with a 2.91 goals-against average and .879 save percentage.
On the injury report, ESPN lists Patrick Kane out with an upper-body injury and Bowen Byram on injured reserve for Chicago as of November 3. For Tampa Bay, Yanni Gourde (hip) will miss Thursday's game per the Lightning's official site, and Zemgus Girgensons is listed day-to-day with a lower-body injury as of November 4. This is the first of two meetings this season; the second is March 8, 2027 in Chicago.
When the Blackhawks vs Lightning Market Resolves
The moneyline settles on the team that wins the game played Thursday, November 5, 2026 at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, with puck drop at 7:00 PM ET per ESPN and the NHL schedule. Overtime and shootout results count toward the winner. The puck line and total settle on the final score, and the platforms settle once the game goes final.
Key Blackhawks vs Lightning Catalysts
- Home and road splits: Tampa Bay is 7-0-0 at home and Chicago 0-6-1 on the road through November 4.
- Back-to-back: Chicago played at Florida on Wednesday night and arrives in Tampa for the second game in two nights.
- Goaltending: ESPN expects Soderblom (.829) against Vasilevskiy (.879) as of November 5, unconfirmed.
- Line drift: Kalshi moved Tampa Bay from 77c to 79c and Chicago from 24c to 21c between Wednesday morning and Thursday morning.
- Margin pricing: Tampa Bay -1.5 at 60c on both venues prices a multi-goal win as the base case.
Related Blackhawks vs Lightning Markets
Chicago's previous night is on the Blackhawks vs Panthers board from November 4, and Tampa Bay's last game is on the Red Wings vs Lightning board from November 3. For the season-long view, the Stanley Cup 2026-27 odds and the Eastern Conference champion market price where Tampa Bay sits among the contenders. Team pages for the Tampa Bay Lightning and Chicago Blackhawks collect every live board for both clubs, and the NHL hub lists the rest of Thursday's slate.
Resolution Criteria
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning game on Thursday, November 5, 2026 at Benchmark International Arena, scheduled for 7:00 PM ET. Overtime and shootout results count, so every game produces a winner. Puck line contracts (such as Tampa Bay -1.5) settle on the final margin and total contracts (such as Over 6.5 goals) settle on combined goals in the official final score as each platform's contract rules define it. Kalshi and Polymarket settle once the game is official; if it is postponed or canceled, each platform's own rules for rescheduled or voided games apply.
Key Factors
- Tampa Bay is 7-0-0 at home and Chicago 0-6-1 on the road through November 4
- Chicago plays the second night of a back-to-back after a 5-3 loss at Florida on November 4
- ESPN lists Arvid Soderblom (.829) and Andrei Vasilevskiy (.879) as expected starters as of November 5
- Kalshi moved Tampa Bay from 77c to 79c and Chicago from 24c to 21c between Wednesday and Thursday morning
- Tampa Bay -1.5 at 60c on Kalshi and Polymarket prices a two-goal win as the base case
- ESPN lists Patrick Kane out and Bowen Byram on injured reserve for Chicago as of November 3
What are the Blackhawks vs Lightning odds?
As of the morning of November 5, 2026, Kalshi prices Tampa Bay at 78c and Chicago at 21c on the moneyline, and Polymarket's listing shows the Lightning near 80c. That is roughly a 78% implied chance of a Tampa Bay win.
What time does Blackhawks vs Lightning start?
Puck drop is 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, November 5, 2026 at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, per ESPN and the NHL schedule.
Where can I trade the Blackhawks vs Lightning game?
The moneyline, puck line and totals trade on Kalshi and Polymarket. The live board on this page shows the Kalshi moneyline and both venues' puck line prices.
Why is Tampa Bay such a big favorite?
Tampa Bay is 9-3-2 and 7-0-0 at home, while Chicago is 4-11-1, 0-6-1 on the road and has been outscored 63-36. Chicago is also on the second night of a back-to-back after losing 5-3 at Florida on November 4.
Who is starting in goal for Blackhawks vs Lightning?
ESPN lists Arvid Soderblom as Chicago's expected starter and Andrei Vasilevskiy for Tampa Bay as of November 5, 2026, both unconfirmed. Soderblom carries a .829 save percentage in three starts and Vasilevskiy a .879 in 11.
What should I watch before Blackhawks vs Lightning settles?
Watch the confirmed starting goalies at morning skate and whether Tampa Bay -1.5 holds near 60c. The moneyline settles when the game goes final on November 5, 2026.