The Xi Jinping Out by 2027 contract asks whether Xi Jinping loses his post as General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party before January 1, 2027. It trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket against roughly $12.8M in cumulative volume, with the bulk of that flow on the Polymarket book. The Yes side is a wager on an off-cycle removal, since the next Party Congress is not due until the autumn of 2027. The live board above carries the current price on each venue.
Xi Jinping has held the post of General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party since November 2012, and he secured a norm-breaking third term at the 20th Party Congress in October 2022. The Xi Jinping Out by 2027 market prices the odds that he loses that position before January 1, 2027. It is a binary contract: Yes resolves if Xi is out, No resolves if he stays. The board now carries a Kalshi line alongside the Polymarket line, roughly $12.8M in cumulative volume between them, and with a little over four months left on the clock the No side remains heavy chalk.
The contract covers any departure of Xi from the General Secretary role before the year-end deadline. That includes resignation, dismissal, detention, disqualification, or any event that prevents him from carrying out the duties of the office.
The key structural fact is the calendar. The Chinese Communist Party holds a National Congress every five years, and the last one seated Xi's third term in October 2022. The next Congress is not scheduled until the autumn of 2027, which falls after this market's deadline. Even a routine, scheduled leadership transition cannot resolve this contract Yes. The Yes side is a bet purely on an unscheduled, off-cycle exit, whether through a health event, an internal power struggle, or a sudden resignation.
That framing is why the No side trades as heavy chalk. No institutional mechanism would seat a new General Secretary inside the window, and Xi has spent his tenure consolidating authority over the Party, the military, and the state. He chaired the July 30, 2026 Politburo meeting that fixed the autumn plenum date, delivered the keynote at the 2026 World AI Conference in July, and appeared at the August 17, 2026 commemoration marking the centenary of Jiang Zemin's birth. The public-visibility signal that usually drives speculation on this contract has been steady through the summer.
The two books converge on the same question but are not word-for-word the same contract. Kalshi lists it inside the KXLEADERSOUT series as "Will Xi Jinping leave General Secretary of the Communist Party of China before Jan 1, 2027?" and settles Yes on either an actual departure or an officially announced one, with the caveat that an announcement placing the exit more than a year later does not count. Polymarket's version runs from July 3, 2025 through December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET and settles on a consensus of credible reporting that Xi has resigned, been dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise been prevented from fulfilling the role.
The volume split is lopsided. Polymarket carries roughly $12.1M in lifetime volume against about $654K on Kalshi, so Polymarket order flow sets the reference price and the thinner Kalshi book can sit unchanged for hours between trades. Compare both prices on the live board above rather than assuming either venue leads. The rule difference worth tracking is Kalshi's one-year cap on announced departures, the single clause that could hold the two settlements apart on an otherwise identical headline.
Both books settle at the turn of the year. The Polymarket contract closes December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, and the Kalshi line runs to January 1, 2027 with expiration on January 8, 2027. Yes pays if Xi has left or announced his departure from the General Secretary post inside that window, and No pays if he holds the office through it. Polymarket's resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single official Party statement, which matters because a detention or incapacitation typically surfaces in reporting well before Beijing confirms anything.
The Xi Jinping Out by 2027 market sits inside a cluster of leadership-tenure contracts. The Putin out as Russia's leader odds ask the same off-cycle-removal question with the same year-end deadline, and the Ali Khamenei tenure market tracks Iran's Supreme Leader on a matching close. For the geopolitical tail that would test Xi's grip hardest, the China invade Taiwan 2026 odds price the cross-strait question directly, while the Xi Jinping US visit market trades his diplomatic calendar rather than his job security. Every contract on him is collected on the Xi Jinping prediction markets hub, and the broader politics prediction markets hub carries the rest of the leadership and election board.
Both books settle at the turn of the year. The Polymarket contract closes December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET and settles Yes if Xi Jinping is removed as General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party at any point between July 3, 2025 and that deadline, where removal means he resigns, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or is otherwise prevented from fulfilling the duties of the office. The Kalshi line in the KXLEADERSOUT series settles Yes if Xi has actually left the post or has officially announced his departure before January 1, 2027, provided the announcement does not place that exit more than a year later, and it expires January 8, 2027. Both settle No if he holds the office through the window. Polymarket's primary resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single official Party announcement. If no qualifying event occurs by the deadline, the contract pays out on No.
As of August 18, 2026, the Yes side (Xi out) trades at 4c on both Kalshi and Polymarket, implying roughly a 4% chance he loses the General Secretary post before January 1, 2027. The live board above carries the current price on each book.
Polymarket's contract closes December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, and Kalshi's runs to January 1, 2027 with expiration on January 8, 2027. Yes pays if Xi leaves or announces his departure from the General Secretary role inside that window.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket carry the contract, with roughly $12.1M of lifetime volume on Polymarket against about $654K on Kalshi. That split is why Polymarket order flow sets the reference price.
A departure of Xi from the General Secretary post before January 1, 2027, covering resignation, dismissal, detention, or disqualification. Because the next Party Congress is not due until the autumn of 2027, only an off-cycle event qualifies.
The fifth plenary session of the 20th Central Committee, announced July 30, 2026 for a date in October, is the last scheduled Party meeting inside the window and the clearest catalyst left. Beyond that, watch for extended gaps in his public appearances and any high-level Politburo or military detention.