The Boston Red Sox finished 2026 at 87-75 after sitting 14 games under .500 on June 18. Polymarket's 85.5-win line resolved Over on September 25, when Boston beat the Cubs 4-3 in the first game of a doubleheader for its 86th win. Kalshi settled its 75, 80 and 85-win rungs Yes and its 90-win rung and above No.
Resolved September 25, 2026.
On June 18 the Boston Red Sox were 29-43, and Kalshi's 85-win contract last traded at 3%. Boston finished 87-75. The over on Polymarket's 85.5-win line was settled on Friday, September 25, when the Red Sox beat the Chicago Cubs 4-3 in the first game of a doubleheader at Fenway Park for win No. 86. They took the nightcap 2-0 as well.
Boston finished third in the AL East, 11 games behind Tampa Bay, and reached the postseason as a wild card. The Red Sox scored 689 runs and allowed 611, a +78 run differential, and went 46-35 on the road. Final standings are from the MLB Stats API.
The venues settled in this order (times ET):
Every settlement fits the final total of 87, so Kalshi and Polymarket agree. Boston lost its finale to the Cubs 6-2 on September 27, which did not touch any line. The ladder traded about 136K contracts on Kalshi, the most on the 90-win rung at about 47K, and about $1.7K on Polymarket.
Boston opened 1-5, was 12-19 at the end of April and 25-33 at the end of May. The bottom came on June 18 at 29-43. From there the Red Sox went 58-32:
Two winning streaks totaling 24 games did most of the work. Outside them, Boston went 63-75.
The opening number was close. On March 25, the eve of the March 26 opener in Cincinnati, Kalshi's 85-win rung closed at 64% and the 90-win rung near 40%, a median of about 88 wins. Polymarket set its line at 85.5. Boston won 87. The path between those two points ran through near-zero:
| Kalshi close (ET) | Red Sox | 85+ wins | 90+ wins |
| Mar 25 (eve of opener) | 0-0 | 64% | 40% |
| Apr 30 | 12-19 | 24% | 11.5% |
| Jun 18 (season low) | 29-43 | 3% | 5% |
| Jul 31 | 58-51 | 61.5% | 23.5% |
| Aug 7 (end of nine-game streak) | 64-51 | 93% | 68% |
| Sep 7 (season peak) | 80-65 | 97% | 47.5% |
| Sep 20 (7 days out) | 84-72 | 98% | 7% |
Prices are the last trade, or the bid/ask midpoint when the last trade sat outside the quote.
The June 18 row is the one that matters. The market priced Boston's spring as who it was, and the 85-win rung traded at 3% with the team on a 65-win pace. Fifty days later the same contract was at 93%. The 90-win rung tells the other half: it reached 68% after the second streak and finished at zero once the September skid set in. Polymarket's line was too thin, about $1.7K for the season, to add a useful second read.
Boston's postseason was short. The Red Sox lost the AL Wild Card Series at Yankee Stadium, 9-0 on September 29 and 9-2 on September 30. The division story is on the resolved 2026 AL East market, the AL title runs through the 2026 AL pennant market, and the 2026 World Series market prices the championship.
Neither venue lists a 2027 Red Sox win-total ladder yet; Kalshi opened its 2026 ladder in mid-December 2025. The Boston Red Sox hub collects every live Red Sox board.
Kalshi's ladder asked whether the Boston Red Sox would win at least N games (75, 80, 85, 90, 95, 100 or 105) in the 2026 regular season; a rung resolved Yes at N or more wins, ties did not count as wins, and postseason games did not count. Polymarket's line resolved Over if Boston won more than 85.5 regular-season games and Under if that became statistically impossible, using official MLB standings, with a 50-50 resolution if the season were cancelled, left incomplete or postponed past November 30, 2026. Kalshi settled the 85-win rung Yes at 11:06 p.m. ET on September 23, 2026 and the 90-win rung No a day earlier, and Polymarket closed its line at 6:39 p.m. ET on September 25, 2026 and resolved it Over.
The Boston Red Sox finished 87-75 in 2026, third in the AL East, and reached the postseason as a wild card.
Over 85.5 on Polymarket, which closed at 6:39 p.m. ET on September 25, 2026. Kalshi settled its 75, 80 and 85-win rungs Yes and its 90, 95, 100 and 105-win rungs No.
Kalshi's 85-win rung closed at 64% before the opener, last traded at 3% on June 18 with Boston at 29-43, and closed at 93% on August 7 after a nine-game winning streak.
A 58-32 finish after June 18, built on winning streaks of 15 and nine games. The 86th win came in a 4-3 victory over the Cubs on September 25.
Not yet. As of October 15, 2026 neither Kalshi nor Polymarket lists a 2027 win-total ladder; Kalshi's 2026 ladder opened in mid-December 2025.