The Athletics finished the 2026 season 64-98, fourth in the AL West, with the worst run differential in the majors. Polymarket's 78.5-win line resolved Under on August 31, and Kalshi settled all seven rungs No. The last one, 65 or more wins, came down to the final day: the A's needed to beat Houston at Sutter Health Park on September 27 and lost 9-0.
Resolved September 27, 2026.
The Athletics needed one win on the last day of the season to reach 65, the lowest rung on Kalshi's ladder. They lost 9-0 to the Houston Astros at Sutter Health Park on Sunday, September 27, the same game that clinched the AL West for Houston, and finished 64-98. In March the market had priced the A's as a high-70s team: Polymarket set its line at 78.5 wins, and Kalshi's 75-win rung closed at 63% on the eve of the opener.
The club's official name is simply the Athletics; the slug's "oak" is a holdover from Oakland, and the team played its 2026 home games at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. The A's finished fourth in the AL West, 17 games behind Houston. They scored 699 runs and allowed 937, a -238 run differential that was the worst in baseball, and went 32-49 both at home and on the road. Final standings are from the MLB Stats API.
Nothing on the board paid Over:
All eight contracts fit a final total of 64, so the venues agree. Kalshi's rungs traded about 120K contracts, the most on the 70-win rung at about 34K. Polymarket's line traded about $6K.
The A's finished April at 17-14, three games over .500 and the high-water mark of their season, and were 28-31 at the end of May. Then the summer went:
The second of those games settled two boards at once. Houston needed a win or a Texas loss to take the division, a race recorded on the resolved 2026 AL West market.
The opening ladder centered on about 78 wins. The A's got to 64, and the market followed them down one rung at a time:
| Kalshi checkpoint (ET) | A's | 65+ | 70+ | 75+ | 80+ |
| Mar 26 close (eve of opener) | 0-0 | - | - | 63% | 45% |
| Apr 30 close | 17-14 | 90.5% | - | 76% | 50% |
| Jun 28 close | 40-44 | 96.5% | 86% | 70.5% | - |
| Jul 12 close (All-Star break) | 41-55 | 92.5% | 68% | 29% | 9.5% |
| Aug 2 close | 45-67 | 56.5% | 20% | 3% | - |
| Aug 7 close (nine straight losses) | 45-71 | 46% | 8.5% | - | - |
| Sep 20 close (7 days out) | 61-95 | 20.5% | - | - | - |
| Sep 24, noon | 63-95 | 46% | - | - | - |
| Sep 27, noon (finale pending) | 64-97 | 32% | - | - | - |
Prices are the last trade, or the bid/ask midpoint when the last trade sat outside the quote or nothing traded; dashes mark rungs with no usable quote or already settled. Late home games ran past the midnight close on some target dates, so the table uses the nearest day without one.
At the end of April the market was right to be hopeful: the A's were three games over .500 and the 80-win rung was a coin flip. The July collapse took the 75-win rung from 70.5% to 29% in two weeks. The 65-win rung was still a heavy favorite at the All-Star break, at 92.5%, slipped under 50% during the August skid, and was still a live question in the final week, rising back to 46% after the Angels series. The finale was priced near one in three, and the A's did not score.
The Athletics missed the postseason, as did every AL West club except Houston, which lost in the Wild Card Series. Seattle, which finished one spot ahead of the A's, has its own resolved ladder on the Mariners 2026 win total page. The 2026 AL pennant market and the 2026 World Series market price the rest of October.
No 2027 Athletics win-total ladder is listed on Kalshi or Polymarket yet; Kalshi opened its 2026 ladder in mid-December 2025. The Athletics hub collects every live A's board.
Kalshi's ladder asked whether the Athletics would win at least N games (65, 70, 75, 80, 85, 90 or 95) in the 2026 regular season; a rung resolved Yes at N or more wins, ties did not count as wins, and postseason games did not count. Polymarket's line resolved Over if the Athletics won more than 78.5 regular-season games and Under as soon as that became statistically impossible, with official MLB standings as the source and a 50-50 resolution if the season were cancelled, left incomplete or postponed past November 30, 2026. Polymarket closed its line at 1:39 a.m. ET on August 31, 2026 and resolved it Under; Kalshi settled every rung No, the last of them, 65+ wins, at 9:05 p.m. ET on September 27, 2026.
The Athletics finished 64-98 in 2026, fourth in the AL West and 17 games behind the Houston Astros, with a -238 run differential, the worst in MLB.
Under on both venues. Polymarket's 78.5-win line resolved Under on August 31, 2026, and Kalshi settled all seven rungs No, the 65-win rung last at 9:05 p.m. ET on September 27.
Kalshi's 65-win contract was quoted between 29% and 35% at noon ET on September 27, with the A's at 64-97 and one game left against Houston.
Losing streaks of 10 games in July and nine games from July 29 to August 7 sank the season, and a 9-0 loss to Houston on September 27 left the A's at 64 wins.
Not yet. As of October 15, 2026 neither Kalshi nor Polymarket lists a 2027 win-total ladder; Kalshi's 2026 ladder opened in mid-December 2025.