The San Francisco Giants finished the 2026 regular season 65-97, fourth in the NL West, and never reached .500. Kalshi settled its 65-win rung Yes and every rung from 70 to 95 wins No, the last after a 3-2 loss to Minnesota on September 22, and Polymarket's over-82.5 line resolved Under on August 29. Every contract fits one final total of 65 wins.
Resolved September 22, 2026.
The San Francisco Giants won 65 games in 2026, 17.5 under the preseason line, and the last open rung of their win total ladder closed with a 3-2 home loss to the Minnesota Twins on Tuesday, September 22. That was loss No. 93, which capped San Francisco at 69 wins and settled the 70-win rung No. The night before, a 5-2 win over the same Twins had been win No. 65. It was the Giants' last win of the season. On the eve of Opening Night, Kalshi's ladder had been centered on about 84 wins.
San Francisco finished 65-97, fourth in the NL West and 35 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers, in Tony Vitello's first season as Giants manager. Only Colorado, at 58-104, had a worse record in the National League. The Giants scored 669 runs and allowed 760, a -91 run differential, after going 81-81 in 2025. Final standings are from the MLB Stats API.
Kalshi listed seven at-least-N rungs, from 65 to 95 wins. Only the bottom one paid:
| Kalshi rung | Result | Settled (ET) |
| 65+ wins | Yes | Sep 22, 2:06 a.m., after win No. 65 on Sep 21 |
| 70+ wins | No | Sep 23, 2:06 a.m., after loss No. 93 on Sep 22 |
| 75+ wins | No | Sep 14, 12:06 a.m., after loss No. 88 on Sep 13 |
| 80, 85, 90 and 95+ wins | No | Sep 8, 3:07 p.m. |
The 80 through 95-win rungs were mathematically dead well before Kalshi settled them together on September 8; the 95-win rung was out of reach on August 8. Polymarket listed one line, over or under 82.5 wins. Loss No. 80, 10-6 to Arizona on August 28, left the Giants unable to reach 83, and the market closed at 4:30 a.m. ET on August 29 and resolved Under. Every contract on both venues fits a final total of 65. The Kalshi ladder traded about 105.8K contracts, the most on the 80-win rung, and the Polymarket line about $1.6K.
San Francisco lost its opener 7-0 to the Yankees at Oracle Park on March 25, was swept in that first series, and never got back to .500 at any point in the season. The decline was steady rather than sudden:
Rafael Devers hit 37 home runs with 98 RBIs and an .865 OPS, and Jung Hoo Lee led the club at .276. Robbie Ray's 10 wins were the most on the staff.
The preseason market missed by about 19 wins. On March 24, the eve of the opener, Kalshi's 80-win rung traded at 70% and its 85-win rung was quoted at 43.5%. Polymarket's line sat at 82.5.
| Kalshi checkpoint (ET) | Giants record | Rung | Price |
| Mar 24 close (eve of opener) | 0-0 | 80+ wins | 70% |
| Mar 24 close (eve of opener) | 0-0 | 85+ wins | 43.5% |
| May 1 close | 13-19 | 80+ wins | 45% |
| Jun 2 close | 23-38 | 80+ wins | 18% |
| Jul 29 close | 46-62 | 75+ wins | 18.5% |
| Aug 30 close | 56-81 | 75+ wins | 8% |
| Sep 21, noon | 64-92 | 70+ wins | 2% |
Prices are the last trade, or the bid/ask midpoint when the last trade sat outside the quote or nothing traded; the 80-win figure on March 24 is a last trade inside a 63-73 quote. Thin days with wide quotes are left out.
The market gave up slowly. At 13-19 on May 1, the 80-win rung still traded at 45%, a price that asked San Francisco to play .515 ball for the rest of the year. It took the 10-18 May to push that contract under 20%. Polymarket's thin over-82.5 line followed the same arc: near 53% on the eve of the opener, about 21% after the first week of May and under 8% from early July until it settled.
San Francisco's season ended on September 27 with a 5-1 loss to the Dodgers, who reached 100 wins that day on the Dodgers' 2026 win total. The division has its own resolved record on the 2026 NL West market, San Diego's 91-win season is on the Padres 2026 win total, and the 2026 World Series market prices the title.
No 2027 win-total ladder is listed on Kalshi or Polymarket yet; Kalshi opened its 2026 ladder in mid-December 2025. The San Francisco Giants hub collects every live Giants board.
Kalshi's ladder asked whether the San Francisco Giants would win at least N games (65, 70, 75, 80, 85, 90 or 95) in the 2026 regular season; each rung resolved Yes at N or more wins, ties did not count as wins, and postseason games did not count. Polymarket's line resolved Over if the Giants won more than 82.5 regular-season games and Under early once that became statistically impossible, named official MLB standings as the source, and would have resolved 50-50 if the season were cancelled, partially completed or postponed past November 30, 2026. Kalshi settled the 80 through 95-win rungs No on September 8, the 65-win rung Yes at 2:06 a.m. ET on September 22 and the 70-win rung No at 2:06 a.m. ET on September 23, 2026, and Polymarket closed its line at 4:30 a.m. ET on August 29, 2026 and resolved it Under.
The San Francisco Giants finished the 2026 regular season 65-97, fourth in the NL West and 35 games behind the Dodgers. They went 81-81 in 2025.
Kalshi settled its 65-win rung Yes and its 70 through 95-win rungs No, the 70-win rung last at 2:06 a.m. ET on September 23, 2026. Polymarket's over-82.5 line closed at 4:30 a.m. ET on August 29 and resolved Under.
On March 24, 2026, the eve of Opening Night, Kalshi's 80-win rung traded at 70% and its 85-win rung was quoted at 43.5%, a ladder centered near 84 wins. Polymarket set its line at 82.5.
San Francisco never reached .500 after losing its opener, and a 10-18 May left it 23-36. Loss No. 93, a 3-2 defeat to Minnesota on September 22, settled the last open rung.
Not yet. Neither Kalshi nor Polymarket lists a 2027 win-total ladder as of October 16, 2026; Kalshi opened the 2026 ladder in mid-December 2025.