Denver went 14-3, took the AFC's number one seed, and lost the conference title game at home 10-7 with its backup quarterback. The 2026 win total is not pricing that record. It is pricing a +90 point differential, thinnest of the league's three 14-win teams, and an 11-2 mark in one-score games. Seventeen rungs, roughly $128K of lifetime volume, settling in January 2027. The live board above prices every rung.
Thirteen of Denver's 17 games in 2025 were decided by eight points or fewer, and the Broncos went 11-2 in them. That single line is the whole argument on this board. Denver won the AFC West, hosted the AFC Championship Game as the conference's number one seed, then scored seven points and lost it 10-7 to New England. The 2026 win total marks the record down by four wins because of how the 14 were assembled, not because of the 14 itself.
This board is a ladder, not a single over/under. Kalshi lists 17 separate contracts, and each one pays if Denver wins at least that many games, so the 11+ contract needs 11 wins and not 12. Prices step down as the threshold rises. As of September 5, 2026, at least 8 wins trades at 80c, at least 10 at 57c, at least 11 at 44c, at least 12 at 32c, and a repeat 14-win season at 14c.
The line is wherever the ladder crosses 50c, and right now that lands between the 10+ and 11+ rungs at 10.5 wins. The market's median Denver season is 10 wins, four fewer than the team actually banked in 2025, and the 13c gap between those two rungs is the market's probability that Denver lands on exactly 10.
Liquidity is not spread evenly. The four rungs from 9+ through 12+ account for roughly 86% of everything ever traded here, and the 10+ and 11+ contracts alone hold about 65% of open interest. The extremes are quoted, not traded: 5+ has never printed a trade at all. Read the top and bottom of this ladder as quotes rather than as a market.
Denver scored 401 points and allowed 311 in 2025. The defense finished third in points allowed at 18.3 per game and led the NFL outright with 68 sacks; the offense finished 14th in scoring at 23.6 per game. That leaves a +90 point differential, thinnest of the league's three 14-win teams and well behind New England at +170 and Seattle at +191. Run 401 and 311 through the standard Pythagorean win formula and it projects an 11-win season, three below what Denver actually banked.
The close-game ledger says the same thing. Seven of Denver's 14 wins came by four points or fewer: by one over the Giants, by one at Washington, by two at the Jets, by three at Houston, by three over the Raiders, by three over Kansas City, and by four at Philadelphia. Two of the three losses were also one-score games. That is a team that lived in the margin for four months and came out on the right side of it almost every time. The 2026 AFC West division market reads it the same way, pricing the Chiefs, Broncos, and Chargers inside three cents of one another.
Bo Nix threw for 3,931 yards in 2025 on 388 of 612 passing, with 25 touchdowns against 11 interceptions and an 87.8 passer rating. He led the NFL in pass attempts. The numbers that explain the win total are 6.4 yards per attempt and 10.1 yards per completion, both 28th in the league. Denver threw more often than anybody and gained less on each throw than almost anybody. Nix did not play in the AFC Championship Game. Jarrett Stidham started it and went 17 of 31 for 133 yards with a 19.6 QBR, and Wil Lutz missed both field goal attempts in the 10-7 loss.
The offseason answer was to raise the ceiling on the perimeter. Jaylen Waddle arrives from Miami, where he caught 64 passes for 910 yards and six touchdowns in 16 games, and joins Courtland Sutton (74 catches, 1,017 yards) and tight end Evan Engram. The backfield returns RJ Harvey and J.K. Dobbins, who ran for 772 yards in the 10 games he played, and Sean Payton is back to call it. If Nix's yards per attempt climbs toward league average, the 11+ and 12+ rungs are the underpriced part of this ladder. If it does not, a defense-first team scoring 23.6 points per game has to keep winning coin flips.
Ten of Denver's 17 games in 2026 come against 2025 playoff teams, and the full slate of opponents went a combined 148-141 last season, a .512 clip. Denver opens on Monday night at Kansas City on September 14, 2026, hosts Super Bowl LX champion Seattle on Thursday night, October 15, hosts Buffalo on Christmas Day, then finishes at New England in Week 17 and at home against the Chargers in Week 18. The bye falls in Week 10.
The soft half of that barbell needs a caveat. Four Denver games come against teams that won three in 2025, Arizona, the Jets, and the Raiders twice, and two more come against a Kansas City team that went 6-11 with a +34 point differential. No market treats that Chiefs roster as a six-win team in 2026, so the schedule is easier on paper than it will play, and the Kansas City Chiefs 2026 win total is the cleanest read on how much of the relief is real.
Every rung on the ladder settles against Denver's official final record for the 2026 NFL regular season. The Broncos close Week 18 at home against the Chargers in early January 2027, and the market resolves on January 18, 2027, once final standings are certified. Kalshi names the league and ESPN as its settlement sources. A rung pays $1 per share if Denver wins at least that many games and resolves at zero otherwise, so a 12-win season pays every contract from 1+ through 12+ and nothing above it. Playoff results are excluded, so a second straight run to the AFC Championship Game adds nothing to the count.
The 2026 AFC West division market is the cleanest cross-check on this ladder, and the Los Angeles Chargers 2026 win total covers the team Denver plays twice and closes the season against. The New England Patriots 2026 win total prices the team that ended Denver's season and hosts the Broncos in Week 17. For the postseason version of the question, the 2026 AFC Championship odds carry Denver's path back to the title game it lost at home, and the 2026 NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds cover the pass rush that made the 14-3 season possible. Every Broncos contract we track sits on the Denver Broncos hub.
Resolves on the Denver Broncos' official final win total for the 2026 NFL regular season. Denver closes Week 18 at home against the Los Angeles Chargers in early January 2027, and the market settles on January 18, 2027, once final standings are certified, with the league and ESPN named as settlement sources. Each rung on the ladder is its own contract that pays $1 per share if the Broncos win at least that many regular-season games and resolves at zero otherwise, so a 12-win season pays every threshold from 1+ through 12+ and nothing above it. Playoff games are excluded from the count. If the season is shortened, each threshold settles against the official adjusted standings under the platform's rules.
Kalshi lists 17 separate contracts rather than one over/under, and each pays if the Broncos win at least that many regular-season games. The 11+ contract needs 11 wins, not 12, and the live board above shows the current price on every rung.
Denver finishes the regular season at home against the Chargers in early January 2027, and the market settles on January 18, 2027, once final standings are certified. Playoff games do not count toward the total.
Kalshi carries the full ladder as 17 individual contracts, with roughly $128K of lifetime volume across the board. Polymarket does not currently list a Broncos season win total, so this is a one-book market.
As of September 5, 2026, the ladder crosses 50c between the 10-plus rung at 57c and the 11-plus rung at 44c, putting the line at 10.5 wins. That makes 10 the market's median Denver season, a four-win markdown from the 14-3 record the Broncos posted in 2025.
Start with the Monday night opener at Kansas City on September 14, 2026, then track Bo Nix's yards per attempt and the health of a pass rush that produced 68 sacks. The December and January stretch decides the top rungs: Buffalo on Christmas Day, Week 17 at New England, and the Chargers in Week 18.