The Raiders 2026 win total is the only AFC West ladder priced under 10 wins, and it belongs to the team that scored 241 points in 2025, fewest in the NFL. Seventeen threshold contracts trade across $106K in lifetime volume, roughly 58% of it stacked on two rungs, and the board settles on the official regular-season count after the Week 18 finale at Kansas City on January 10, 2027. The live board above carries the current price on every rung, and the [AFC West Division 2026 odds](/markets/division-nfl-afc-west-2026) price the race it feeds.
The Las Vegas Raiders scored 241 points in 2025, fewest in the NFL and 38 behind the next-worst offense, and the 2026 win total ladder still asks them to roughly double a 3-14 record. Seventeen threshold contracts trade on this board across $106K in lifetime volume, and about 58% of that money sits on two rungs. The market's read is not that the roster fixed itself. It is that a team this bad, with a new head coach and a rebuilt interior, rarely stays this bad twice.
Las Vegas finished 3-14 and led the league in the categories nobody wants. The Raiders scored 241 points, with Cleveland next-worst at 279, and gained 269.8 yards per game, last in the NFL. They ran for 1,317 yards, also last and 266 behind the next-worst rushing team, and scored 5 rushing touchdowns all season, four fewer than any other team managed. They allowed 64 sacks, more than anyone, and lost 464 yards on them. Third down converted at 33.8% and 256 first downs was the lowest total in the league.
Klint Kubiak takes over as head coach after arriving from Mike Macdonald's Seattle staff, where the offense scored 483 points on a 14-3 team. The unit he inherits scored 241. The Raiders 2026 win total is, stripped down, the market's estimate of how much of that 242-point gap closes in one offseason.
This board is a ladder, not a single yes-or-no question. Kalshi lists 17 contracts, one for every level from 1 win through 17, and each pays if Las Vegas finishes with at least that many wins. A 6-win season pays every rung from 1-plus through 6-plus and none above it.
The line is wherever the ladder crosses 50c. As of September 5, 2026 the 6-plus rung trades at 56c and the 7-plus rung at 38c, which puts the market at 6.5 wins. That 18c step is the widest single gap on the board, and it is not an accident. It is where the money is. The 6-plus rung has taken $27K in lifetime volume and the 7-plus rung $34K, about 58% of the board between them; add the 8-plus rung's $15K and roughly 72% of everything ever traded here sits on three contracts. The five rungs from 13-plus wins up have taken under $900 combined, so read anything above the 10-plus rung as a thin book rather than a signal.
Las Vegas is the only AFC West ladder priced under 10 wins. Denver, Kansas City and the Chargers all cross 50c between their 10-plus and 11-plus rungs, putting all three at 10.5. The Denver Broncos 2026 win total is the biggest of the four boards at $128K after a 14-3 season, and the Kansas City Chiefs 2026 win total carries that same 10.5 line despite Kansas City going 6-11 last year. The Raiders board is second-most traded in the division at $106K while sitting four full wins below every neighbor. The Jets went 3-14 in 2025 too, and the New York Jets 2026 win total crosses 50c a full win lower than this one.
The quarterback room turned over completely. Geno Smith threw for 3,025 yards with 19 touchdowns, 17 interceptions and a 34.1 QBR in 2025, absorbed 55 sacks, and now plays for the Jets. Las Vegas spent the No. 1 overall pick on Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, its first top selection since JaMarcus Russell in 2007, then signed Kirk Cousins and named him the Week 1 starter over the rookie. Cousins is 38 and played 10 games for Atlanta in 2025, throwing for 1,721 yards with 10 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. That arrangement raises the floor and caps the ceiling at once, the exact shape of this ladder.
The line got the money. Tyler Linderbaum signed a three-year, $81M deal to leave Baltimore and play center for a team that averaged 3.6 yards a carry. Ashton Jeanty ran for 975 yards on 266 carries at 3.7 a clip as a rookie, scored all 5 of the team's rushing touchdowns, added 55 catches for 346 yards, and is listed questionable entering Week 1. Whether his yards per carry moves behind Linderbaum is the cleanest proxy for whether the middle of the ladder pays.
The defense produced 37 sacks and 8 interceptions in 2025, just 16 takeaways in all. Las Vegas answered with Kwity Paye from Indianapolis, Quay Walker and his 128 tackles from Green Bay, Nakobe Dean from Philadelphia, and nickel corner Taron Johnson from Buffalo. Maxx Crosby is still here after a Baltimore trade fell apart in the offseason, coming off 10 sacks and 23.5 tackles for loss in 15 games.
Every rung settles on the Raiders' official 2026 regular-season win count after Week 18. Las Vegas opens at home against Miami on September 13, 2026, takes its bye in Week 13, and finishes at Kansas City on January 10, 2027. The contracts carry a listed settlement date of January 18, 2027, which leaves room for a rescheduled game that still counts in the standings. Postseason results do not count toward the total.
The division board reads the AFC West as a three-way race with Las Vegas a distant fourth, and the AFC West Division 2026 odds price it that way. The Los Angeles Chargers 2026 win total is the closest 10.5-win benchmark and the Raiders play them twice. Conference and title pricing sits on the AFC Championship 2026-27 board and the Super Bowl LXI champion market. Team-wide coverage lives on the Las Vegas Raiders hub.
Each contract on this ladder resolves against the Las Vegas Raiders' official win count across the 2026 National Football League regular season, and every rung asks whether the Raiders win at least that many games, not strictly more than that many. A rung pays $1 per share if Las Vegas finishes with that number of wins or better and resolves to zero otherwise, so a 6-win season pays every rung from 1-plus through 6-plus and none above it. The Raiders open at home against Miami on September 13, 2026, take their bye in Week 13, and close at Kansas City on January 10, 2027; the contracts carry a listed settlement date of January 18, 2027, which leaves room for a rescheduled game that still counts in the official standings. Postseason results do not count toward the total, and if the season is shortened the thresholds settle against the official adjusted standings per platform rules.
The ladder is priced at 6.5 wins, where it crosses 50c between the 6-plus and 7-plus rungs. Kalshi lists 17 separate threshold contracts, one for every level from 1-plus wins through 17, and each pays if Las Vegas wins at least that many games. The live board above shows the current price on each rung.
After Week 18. Las Vegas closes the regular season at Kansas City on January 10, 2027, and the contracts carry a listed settlement date of January 18, 2027. Postseason games do not count toward the total.
Kalshi is the only book carrying this ladder. Polymarket has no matching Raiders season-win contract, so every rung on the board above is a single-book price rather than a cross-platform average.
The 6-plus and 7-plus rungs hold about 58% of the board's $106K in lifetime volume, and adding the 8-plus rung accounts for roughly 72% of everything traded here. The five rungs from 13-plus wins up have taken under $900 combined, so quotes at the top of the ladder come from very thin books.
Whether Ashton Jeanty's 3.7 yards per carry improves behind new center Tyler Linderbaum, how long Kirk Cousins holds the job before Fernando Mendoza takes it, and whether a defense that forced 16 takeaways in 2025 creates more. The season opens against Miami on September 13, 2026.