The Raiders 2026 win total ladder prices Las Vegas to roughly double a 3-14 season in which it scored 241 points, fewest in the NFL. Seventeen threshold contracts trade across about $85K in lifetime volume, the median outcome sits at 6 wins, and the board settles on the official regular-season count after the Week 18 finale at Kansas City on January 10, 2027. The live board above carries the current price on every rung. This page covers the Klint Kubiak hire, the Kirk Cousins and Fernando Mendoza quarterback structure, and the schedule that decides which rungs pay.
The Las Vegas Raiders were the worst offense in football last season and the 2026 win total does not price that team. It prices a roster that fired its head coach after one year, spent the No. 1 overall pick on a quarterback, handed a center a record contract, and still opens the season with nine games against 2025 playoff teams. Seventeen threshold contracts trade on this board across roughly $85K in lifetime volume, and about 57% of that money sits on just two rungs: 6-plus wins and 7-plus wins.
Las Vegas finished 3-14 and led the NFL in the categories nobody wants. The Raiders scored 241 points, fewest in the league and 38 behind the next-worst offense. They gained 269.8 yards per game, also last. They scored 5 rushing touchdowns across the entire 17-game season, four fewer than any other team. They allowed 64 sacks, more than anyone, losing 464 yards on them. Third down converted at 33.8%, turnover differential came in at -7, and the point differential of -191 was third-worst in football behind only the Jets and Titans.
The ladder's median outcome of 6 wins is therefore a bet on turnover rather than continuity. Pete Carroll was fired January 5, 2026 after a single season. Klint Kubiak was hired February 9 on a five-year deal, arriving from Seattle, where he ran the offense for a 14-3 Seahawks team that won Super Bowl LX. Kubiak's Seattle unit scored 483 points. The team he now coaches scored 241. The Raiders 2026 win total is, stripped down, the market's estimate of how much of that 242-point gap closes in one offseason.
The loudest number from 2025 belongs to Ashton Jeanty. The sixth overall pick ran for 975 yards on 266 carries, the most rushing yards of any rookie, at 3.7 yards a carry. He generated just 112 yards before contact all season, second-fewest in the NFL among backs with at least 200 carries, meaning 88.5% of his production came after someone had already gotten to him. He also scored all five of the team's rushing touchdowns and added 55 catches for 346 yards.
The front office answered that with money. Tyler Linderbaum signed for three years and $81M with $60M in guarantees, a record deal for a center, and Las Vegas has effectively told the market where it believes the ceiling was capped. Whether Jeanty's yards-before-contact figure moves is the cleanest single proxy for whether the middle of the ladder pays.
Geno Smith threw for 3,025 yards in 2025 and was traded to the Jets in March. The Raiders replaced him twice over. They used the No. 1 overall pick on Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, the franchise's first top selection since 2007, then signed Kirk Cousins on April 6. Kubiak named Cousins the starter entering camp, with Mendoza and Aidan O'Connell taking first-team reps behind him.
That is a Kubiak decision, not a depth-chart accident. The two spent three seasons together in Minnesota. Cousins turns 38 during the season and made eight starts for Atlanta in 2025 before being released. The arrangement raises the floor and caps the ceiling at the same time, which is exactly the shape the ladder carries: the low rungs price as near-certainties while the double-digit rungs stay long shots. A midseason handoff to Mendoza is the outcome the top of the board is not paying for.
The defense got rebuilt alongside it. Kwity Paye (three years, $48M), Quay Walker (three years, $40.5M), Nakobe Dean, Eric Stokes (three years, $30M), and a trade for Bills nickel corner Taron Johnson all landed in March. That unit produced 37 sacks and only 8 interceptions in all of 2025, so the takeaway rate is the number to watch there.
Every rung settles on the Raiders' official regular-season win count after Week 18. Las Vegas opens at home against Miami on September 13, 2026, takes its bye in Week 13, and finishes at Kansas City on January 10, 2027. The contracts carry a listed settlement date of January 18, 2027, which leaves room for a rescheduled game that still counts in the standings. Postseason results do not count toward the total.
The division board reads the AFC West as a three-way race between Denver, Kansas City and the Chargers with Las Vegas a distant fourth, and the AFC West Division 2026 odds carry both books rather than one. Wider conference and title pricing sits on the AFC Championship 2026-27 board and the Super Bowl LXI champion market. For ladder comparisons, the Denver Broncos 2026 win total is the divisional benchmark after a 14-3 season and the Kansas City Chiefs 2026 win total prices the other AFC West team coming off a losing year. Team-wide coverage lives on the Las Vegas Raiders hub.
Each contract on this ladder resolves against the Las Vegas Raiders' official win count across the 2026 National Football League regular season, and each rung asks whether the Raiders win at least that many games, not strictly more than that many. A rung pays $1 per share if Las Vegas finishes with that number of wins or better and resolves to zero otherwise, so a 6-win season pays every rung from 1-plus through 6-plus and none above it. The Raiders open at home against Miami on September 13, 2026, take their bye in Week 13, and close at Kansas City on January 10, 2027; the contracts carry a listed settlement date of January 18, 2027, which leaves room for a rescheduled game that still counts in the official standings. Postseason results do not count toward the total, and if the season is shortened the thresholds settle against the official adjusted standings per platform rules.
The ladder centers on 6 wins. Kalshi lists 17 separate threshold contracts, one for every level from 1-plus wins through 17-plus wins, and roughly 57% of the board's $85K in lifetime volume sits on the 6-plus and 7-plus rungs. The live board above shows the current price on each.
After Week 18. Las Vegas closes the regular season at Kansas City on January 10, 2027, and the contracts carry a listed settlement date of January 18, 2027. Postseason games do not count toward the total.
Kalshi is the only book carrying this ladder. Polymarket has no matching Raiders season-win contract, so every rung on the board above is a single-book price rather than a cross-platform average.
Three wins. Las Vegas went 3-14 in 2025 while scoring 241 points, the fewest in the NFL, and the ladder's median outcome is 6 wins under first-year head coach Klint Kubiak.
Maxx Crosby's knee after the voided Baltimore trade, whether Ashton Jeanty's 3.7 yards per carry improves behind new center Tyler Linderbaum, and how long Kirk Cousins holds the job before Fernando Mendoza takes it. The season opens against Miami on September 13, 2026.