Toronto's expansion season is down to one live contract. Six of the seven rungs on the Toronto Tempo win-total ladder have already settled, leaving the 15-win threshold as the only open Tempo market and the holder of all $12.4K of lifetime volume on this board. Through August 24, 2026 the Tempo are 11-26 with seven games left, so the contract turns on whether a roster missing five players can win four more before the regular season ends September 24, 2026. The live board above carries the current price.
Toronto's first WNBA season has one question left, and the playoffs are not it. The Tempo were mathematically eliminated weeks ago, and six of the seven rungs on their season-win ladder have already settled. What remains is a single number: 15. Through August 24, 2026 Toronto sits at 11-26 with seven games to play, so the Toronto Tempo 2026 win total comes down to whether a short-handed expansion roster can find four more wins before the schedule ends September 24, 2026.
Kalshi listed seven thresholds on the Tempo, from 10 wins up through 40. Six are finished. The 35-win and 40-win contracts settled NO on July 6, 2026, the 30-win contract on July 19, the 25-win contract on August 6, and the 20-win contract on August 21 once Toronto's maximum possible finish fell below 20. Going the other way, the 10-win contract settled YES on July 14. The 15-win threshold is the only live Toronto Tempo win total contract, and it carries the full $12.4K of lifetime volume on this board.
That collapse is the season in one shape. Toronto opened 7-5 through twelve games, which is why the 20-win and 25-win rungs traded at all. The Tempo have gone 4-21 since. The market never had to guess its way down the ladder. Each rung settled as the arithmetic ran out.
The contract reads "at least 15," so 11-26 means Toronto needs exactly four wins from seven games, and a 15-27 finish pays YES. The schedule is the first problem. Five of the last seven are road games, and the Tempo are 4-13 away from home against 7-13 in Toronto. The run goes at Seattle on August 27, at Las Vegas on August 29, at Phoenix on August 30, home against Indiana on September 18, home against New York on September 20, then at Chicago on September 23 and at Connecticut on September 24. Four of those opponents are beatable: Seattle is 7-31, Connecticut is 9-27, Phoenix is 13-24, Chicago is 15-23. The other three are not. Las Vegas is 26-13, Indiana is 25-14, New York is 23-15. The path to YES is effectively sweeping the soft four.
The roster is the second problem, and it is the bigger one. As of August 24, 2026 the Tempo have five players listed out. Marina Mabrey, the leading scorer at 20.8 points per game, is out with a right hip injury and is not expected back until September 18, which means she misses the entire three-game road trip that opens the stretch. Aneesah Morrow, second on the team at 11.0 points and 8.3 rebounds, is out for the season with a knee injury, and Brittney Sykes is out for the season with a left foot injury. Julie Allemand, who leads the team at 5.6 assists per game, and Maria Conde, third in scoring at 9.0 points, are both listed out into late August. What is left is Kia Nurse, Kiki Rice, Temi Fagbenle, Isabelle Harrison and Laura Juskaite, the group that scored 19, 14, 13, 12 and 11 in the August 23 loss at Las Vegas.
The underlying numbers were already thin before that. Sandy Brondello's team scores 87.3 points per game on 44.5% shooting, which is mid-pack, but it allows 93.7 per game, the worst defensive figure in the WNBA. Toronto's -238 point differential is second-worst in the league behind Connecticut. The Tempo have won one of their last ten, and they have produced four wins inside a seven-game window exactly once all season, in a stretch that began May 13, 2026.
The 15-win contract expires October 7, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET, and it will be decided before that. Toronto's regular season ends September 24, 2026 at Connecticut, and Kalshi settles early once the outcome is determined, which happens the moment the Tempo either reach 15 wins or take a fourth loss in the remaining seven. Settlement runs off the official WNBA regular-season standings. The strike is greater-or-equal, so 15 wins pays YES rather than pushing. Postseason games do not count, and Toronto has none to play.
The Tempo's other board, the Toronto playoff market, is already answered by the standings, which is why the win total is the last live Toronto contract of 2026. Compare the expansion class directly against the Portland Fire win total, where the league's other first-year team is 15-22 and has already cleared 15 wins, and against the Connecticut Sun win total, the only Eastern Conference team below Toronto. Kiki Rice also appears on the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year board. For the league picture, the 2026 WNBA champion market prices the eight teams still alive, and every Toronto contract and game line sits on the Tempo team hub alongside the wider WNBA hub.
Resolves YES if the Toronto Tempo win at least 15 games in the 2026 WNBA regular season and NO otherwise, settling off the official WNBA regular-season standings. The strike is greater-or-equal, so a 15-27 finish pays YES and a 14-28 finish pays NO. Toronto's 44-game schedule ends September 24, 2026 at Connecticut, and the contract expires October 7, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET, though Kalshi settles early once the outcome is mathematically determined. Postseason games do not count toward the total, and the Tempo have been eliminated from playoff contention. Official makeup or tiebreaker games that count in the standings do count toward the win total.
The only live threshold left is 15 wins. The 20, 25, 30, 35 and 40-win contracts all settled NO between July 6 and August 21, 2026, and the 10-win contract settled YES on July 14. The live board above shows the current price on the 15-win rung.
The contract expires October 7, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET, but Toronto's regular season ends September 24, 2026 at Connecticut and Kalshi settles early once the result is determined. Postseason games do not count.
The 15-win contract trades on Kalshi only. There is no matching Polymarket line, so a single book carries all $12.4K of lifetime volume on this board.
As of August 24, 2026 Toronto is 11-26 with seven games remaining, so the Tempo need four wins to reach 15. The 15-win contract was trading at 37c on Kalshi that day.
Marina Mabrey's return, currently projected around September 18, and the road trip at Seattle, Las Vegas and Phoenix from August 27 to August 30, which Toronto plays without her. The September 23 and September 24 finish at Chicago and Connecticut is the most winnable pair left.