Alden Coria vs Stewart Nicoll Prediction Market Odds, July 18, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Coria | — | O 0.5 83% | 89%88% | 89% Kalshi |
▶Nicoll | — | U 0.5 17% | 12%13% | 13% Polymarket |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Alden Coria | — | O 0.5 | 89% Kalshi | |
▶Stewart Nicoll | — | U 0.5 | 13% Polymarket |
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Alden Coria is the widest price on tonight's UFC Oklahoma City board at 89c on Kalshi and 88c on Polymarket, making Stewart Nicoll a 12c to 13c underdog in this flyweight prelim at Paycom Center. The logic is straightforward: Coria (12-3) has won both of his UFC appearances and carries a three-fight win streak, while Nicoll (8-3) is 0-3 inside the octagon. The line has held flat at 89c since Friday night, with roughly $166K traded across the fight's markets ahead of the July 18, 2026 walk.
Alden Coria vs Stewart Nicoll is the widest price on the UFC Oklahoma City board, a flyweight prelim at UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman at Paycom Center on July 18, 2026. Coria trades at 89c on Kalshi and 88c on Polymarket, the biggest favorite anywhere on the card, and the books sit within 1c of each other on both sides of the fight. Nicoll, at 12c on Kalshi and 13c on Polymarket, is priced for one specific outcome: a fourth straight UFC loss. Roughly $166K has traded across the fight's markets.
Coria vs Nicoll Records and Form
Coria (12-3) is 2-0 in the UFC, with a third-round knockout of Alessandro Costa and a decision over Luis Gurule, and carries a three-fight win streak into Saturday. The underlying numbers support the price: 4.7 significant strikes landed per minute at 44% accuracy, plus 71% takedown defense. Sportsbooks list him at -1200, steeper than the prediction market's 89c.
Nicoll (8-3) arrived in the UFC undefeated in 2024 with regional belts from XFC and Beast Championship, and has lost every fight since: Jesus Aguilar, Lucas Rocha, and Alessandro Costa, the last a body-shot knockout in April. His output runs at 3.6 significant strikes per minute at 39% accuracy, and his 28% takedown defense lets an opponent pick the phase of the fight. The Costa result is the market's cleanest comparison: the same man who knocked Nicoll out was himself knocked out by Coria in round three.
The Coria vs Nicoll Moneyline Read
At an 88.5c consensus, the market gives Coria an implied win probability of roughly 88% to 89%. Sportsbooks are steeper at -1200, about 92% implied, which makes the prediction market the cheaper entry on the favorite. The 1c Kalshi-Polymarket split on each fighter is bookkeeping, not signal. The line has also gone nowhere: Kalshi has printed 89c on Coria in every snapshot since Friday night, Polymarket has held 88c across the same window, and Nicoll's only move was a tick from 13c to 12c on Kalshi. A price this wide holding flat into fight day means the market considered it settled from the open.
Method and Rounds: How Coria vs Nicoll Ends
Polymarket carries the derivative markets, and they lean finish. The fight ending by KO or TKO trades at 54c, up from 48c overnight, with Coria specifically by KO or TKO at 44c. A submission finish trades at 34c, up from 26c, and the fight going the distance sits at just 32c. The rounds ladder agrees: over 2.5 rounds trades at 40c, implying a 60% chance the fight ends inside two and a half rounds, with over 1.5 rounds at 61c and over 0.5 rounds at 79c. These are thinner single-book props and the ladder does not sum as cleanly as the moneyline, so read the direction rather than the decimals. The direction is consistent: Nicoll has now been stopped at this level, Coria's Costa knockout came in round three as his pressure compounded, and the overnight flow moved toward a finish, not away from one. Some previews take Coria by decision on the speed and technique edge; the method board disagrees, pricing the distance as the cheapest of the three ways home.
How the Coria vs Nicoll Market Resolves
The winner market settles on the UFC's official result of the bout in Oklahoma City on July 18, 2026. Coria contracts pay $1 per share if Coria wins by any method, and Nicoll contracts pay $1 per share if Nicoll does. MMA is a two-way market with no draw line, so a draw or no contest pays neither fighter as the winner and settles under each platform's rules for those outcomes.
Key Coria vs Nicoll Catalysts
- The price: Coria at 89c on Kalshi and 88c on Polymarket is the widest moneyline on the July 18 card, unmoved since Friday night.
- The shared opponent: Alessandro Costa knocked Nicoll out with a body shot in April and was knocked out by Coria in round three.
- The UFC gap: Nicoll is 0-3 in the UFC against Aguilar, Rocha, and Costa; Coria is 2-0 with a three-fight overall win streak.
- The striking math: Coria lands 4.7 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy against Nicoll's 3.6 at 39%.
- The grappling floor: takedown defense splits 71% to 28% in Coria's favor, so the favorite chooses where the fight happens.
- The finish lean: KO or TKO at 54c and submission at 34c against 32c on the distance, with the method flow drifting toward a stoppage.
Related UFC Markets
Tonight's main event feeds the middleweight title picture: Dricus du Plessis against Kamaru Usman is the headliner, and the UFC middleweight champion market tracks where the division goes from here. Coria is fighting his way toward ranked opposition at 125 pounds, the division priced in the UFC flyweight champion market, while the UFC pound-for-pound market covers the sport's top tier through the end of 2026. The full slate of live boards for July 18 is on today's games, with every combat sports future on the sports hub.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves on the UFC's official result of Alden Coria vs Stewart Nicoll at UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City on July 18, 2026. The Coria contract pays $1 per share if Coria is announced the winner by any method, including knockout, technical knockout, submission, decision, or disqualification; the Nicoll contract pays $1 per share if Nicoll wins. This is a two-way market with no draw line: a draw or no contest pays neither fighter as the winner and settles under each platform's rules for those outcomes. If the bout is cancelled or an opponent is replaced before the walk, positions settle under the platforms' cancellation rules, which generally void the market.
Key Factors
- Coria at 89c on Kalshi and 88c on Polymarket, the widest moneyline on the July 18 card, unmoved since Friday night
- Shared-opponent read: Alessandro Costa knocked Nicoll out with a body shot in April and was knocked out by Coria in round three
- Nicoll is 0-3 in the UFC (Aguilar, Rocha, Costa) after arriving undefeated with XFC and Beast Championship belts
- Striking gap: Coria lands 4.7 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy against Nicoll's 3.6 at 39%
- Takedown defense splits 71% to 28% in Coria's favor, giving the favorite the choice of phase
- Method ladder leans finish: KO/TKO 54c and submission 34c on Polymarket against 32c on the distance
What are the Coria vs Nicoll odds for July 18, 2026?
As of July 18, 2026, Alden Coria trades at 89c on Kalshi and 88c on Polymarket, with Stewart Nicoll at 12c and 13c. That makes Coria roughly an 88% to 89% implied favorite, the widest price on the UFC Oklahoma City card.
Where can I trade the Coria vs Nicoll market?
The fight winner market trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with roughly $166K in combined volume across the fight's markets. Polymarket also carries method-of-victory and total-rounds props.
Why is Alden Coria such a heavy favorite over Stewart Nicoll?
Coria (12-3) has won both of his UFC fights and rides a three-fight win streak, while Nicoll (8-3) is 0-3 in the UFC. Both men fought Alessandro Costa: Coria knocked him out in round three, and Costa stopped Nicoll with a body shot in April.
When does the Coria vs Nicoll market resolve?
It resolves on the official result of the bout at UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman in Oklahoma City on July 18, 2026. The winning fighter's contract pays $1 per share; a draw or no contest settles under each platform's rules with neither side paid as the winner.
Will Coria vs Nicoll go the distance?
The market leans no. Polymarket prices the fight to go the distance at 32c, with a KO or TKO at 54c and a submission at 34c. Over 2.5 rounds trades at 40c, implying a 60% chance the fight ends inside two and a half rounds.
What should I watch before the Coria vs Nicoll walk?
The bout sits on the prelims, which begin at 5 p.m. ET on July 18, 2026, with the board listing a 7 p.m. ET window for this fight. Watch whether Kalshi's 89c on Coria holds through the walk and whether the method props keep drifting toward a finish, after KO/TKO moved from 48c to 54c overnight.