Michael Aljarouj vs Fabia Sintes Prediction Market Odds, September 5, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Aljarouj | — | O 0.5 — | 0% | — |
Sintes | — | U 0.5 — | 100% | 100% Polymarket |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Michael Aljarouj | — | O 0.5 — | 0% | — |
Fabia Sintes | — | U 0.5 — | 100% | 100% Polymarket |
Michael Aljarouj (13-3) and Fabia Sintes (11-3) open the 14-fight UFC Paris card at Accor Arena as a genuine pick'em, with Aljarouj at 52c and Sintes at 49c on the evening of September 4, 2026. The flyweight bout carries about $18.1K in lifetime volume, nearly all of it on the moneyline, and the method markets price a 56% chance the fight ends before the final horn. Aljarouj has 10 stoppages in 13 wins and Sintes has seven in 11, which is the case for the finish side.
Michael Aljarouj and Fabia Sintes open a 14-fight card at Accor Arena in Paris as close to a coin flip as a prediction market gets, with Aljarouj quoted at 52c and Sintes at 49c on the evening of September 4, 2026. The flyweight bout carries roughly $18.1K in lifetime volume, essentially all of it on the two moneyline legs. Between them these two have finished 17 of their 24 career wins, yet the board prices a 44c chance this one goes the full 15 minutes.
Aljarouj vs Sintes Market Context
Aljarouj is 13-3 with two no contests, a 29-year-old orthodox fighter out of France who stands 5-foot-5 with a 66-inch reach and fights as The Soldier. Ten of his 13 wins are stoppages, seven by TKO and three by submission, and six of those wins came in title fights on the European regional circuit. His last recorded win came in November 2024 at Hexagone MMA 21 over Pedro Nobre, and his April 2025 bout at Hexagone MMA 26 against Romero dos Reis produced no winner, which leaves him about 17 months removed from a result in his favor.
Sintes is 11-3, a 32-year-old from Spain listed at 5-foot-7 with a 65-inch reach and the nickname El Potro Menorquin. He arrives on a four-fight win streak built at WOW 16 in Bilbao, WOW 20, WOW 24 in Vitoria and WOW 28 in Barcelona on March 28, 2026, which puts him five months out from his last fight against an opponent who has been idle for 17. Five of his 11 wins are submissions and only one of his three losses came inside the distance, a submission defeat.
The physical read runs against the tale of the tape. Sintes is the taller man by two inches, but Aljarouj owns the longer reach at 66 inches to 65, and the shorter, longer-armed fighter is the one the board leans toward. Both are orthodox, both come out of the European regional scene, and the bout is scheduled for three rounds with no championship rounds to stretch a decision.
How the Aljarouj vs Sintes Method and Rounds Markets Price the Finish
The method block is internally consistent, which is not the norm on a prelim: go the distance at 44c, won by KO or TKO at 32c and won by submission at 24c sum to exactly 100. The split inside the KO/TKO block is the sharpest read on the page. Aljarouj to win by KO or TKO prices at 24c against 10c for Sintes, so roughly three quarters of the knockout probability sits with the fighter carrying seven career TKO wins. That leaves the submission lane to Sintes by implication, and his five career submission finishes back it up.
The rounds ladder steps down from 88c on over 0.5 to 67c on over 1.5 and 52c on over 2.5. The 21c drop between the first two rungs is the largest single step on the ladder, which is where the market concentrates its finish probability. The 8c gap between over 2.5 at 52c and go the distance at 44c is the price on a late third-round stoppage.
One caution attaches to all of it. The moneyline holds essentially the entire $18.1K on this board, while the method and rounds legs have traded almost nothing, with the go-the-distance leg showing about $7 in lifetime volume. Those quotes are a maker's opinion rather than a crowd's, and one order moves them. The moneyline number is the only price here with real weight behind it.
The snapshot history the board carries on this fight runs about two and a quarter hours on the evening of September 4, 2026. Aljarouj was quoted 53c at the first capture at 8:01 PM ET, ticked to 52c by 8:30 PM ET and held 52c through the last capture at 10:16 PM ET, while 24-hour volume on the leg roughly doubled from $6.8K to $13.4K. Size came in and the price did not move, which is a market taking action without changing its mind. Compare that to the top of the card, where the Hooker vs Parnasse main event carries the night's deepest book.
When the Aljarouj vs Sintes Market Resolves
The moneyline resolves to the fighter who wins the Aljarouj vs Sintes flyweight bout scheduled for September 5, 2026 at Accor Arena in Paris, with the prelims opening at 12:00 PM ET on Paramount+. The winning fighter's contract pays $1 per share and the other pays $0. The method and rounds markets settle off the official result announced in the cage, so a draw or a no contest leaves both fighter-wins contracts at $0. Exchange rules govern a cancellation or a postponement past the settlement window.
Key Aljarouj vs Sintes Catalysts
- Stoppage history versus the finish price: 17 of the pair's 24 career wins came inside the distance, against a 44c go-the-distance quote.
- Aljarouj's layoff: his last recorded win is November 2024 and his April 2025 bout produced no winner, leaving about 17 months of inactivity.
- Sintes momentum: a four-fight win streak through March 28, 2026, with five career submission wins as his primary path.
- The KO/TKO split: 24c on Aljarouj against 10c on Sintes is the widest method asymmetry on the board.
- Thin prop liquidity: the method and rounds legs carry near-zero volume against $18.1K on the moneyline, so those quotes move on single orders.
Related Aljarouj vs Sintes and UFC Paris Markets
The Paris card runs 14 fights deep and the boards move together as the night's volume rotates through them. Michael Page vs Ruziboev is the main-card draw with the widest name recognition, Charriere vs Lima is the French featherweight test on the prelims, and Cornolle vs Sygula and Montenegro vs Benouaich fill out the earlier half of the broadcast. Every UFC board and the rest of the day's slate sit on the sports markets hub.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to the fighter who wins the Michael Aljarouj vs Fabia Sintes flyweight bout at UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs Parnasse on September 5, 2026 at Accor Arena in Paris, with prelims opening at 12:00 PM ET on Paramount+. The winning fighter's contract pays $1 per share and the losing fighter's contract pays $0. The scheduled three-round bout settles on the official result announced in the cage, including any stoppage, disqualification or judges' decision, so a draw or a no contest resolves both fighter-wins contracts to $0. Method-of-victory and rounds markets settle off that same official result. If the bout is canceled, postponed past the exchange's settlement window or removed from the card, the contracts void per each platform's published rules.
Key Factors
- Combined stoppage history: 17 of the pair's 24 career wins came inside the distance against a 44c go-the-distance quote
- Aljarouj layoff: last recorded win November 2024, April 2025 bout produced no winner, about 17 months idle
- Sintes on a four-fight win streak through March 28, 2026 with five career submission wins
- KO/TKO asymmetry: 24c on Aljarouj to finish against 10c on Sintes, the widest method split on the board
- Reach edge to Aljarouj at 66 inches to 65 despite giving up two inches in height
- Thin prop liquidity: method and rounds legs carry near-zero volume against $18.1K on the moneyline
What are the current Aljarouj vs Sintes odds?
As of the evening of September 4, 2026, Michael Aljarouj is quoted at 52c and Fabia Sintes at 49c, which is a pick'em inside the vig. Aljarouj opened the board's snapshot window at 53c and settled to 52c within half an hour.
When does the Aljarouj vs Sintes market resolve?
The bout is scheduled for September 5, 2026 at Accor Arena in Paris, with the prelims opening at 12:00 PM ET on Paramount+. The market settles once the official result of the three-round flyweight fight is announced.
Where does the Aljarouj vs Sintes fight trade?
Both Kalshi and Polymarket list the Aljarouj vs Sintes flyweight bout on the September 5, 2026 UFC Paris card. The board above shows the live price rendered on this page.
Who is favored in Aljarouj vs Sintes?
Aljarouj is the marginal side at 52c to Sintes at 49c as of September 4, 2026, a 3c edge that is inside a single tick of noise. The stronger directional signal is the method market, where Aljarouj to win by KO or TKO prices at 24c against 10c for Sintes.
What should I watch before the Aljarouj vs Sintes market resolves?
Watch the Friday weigh-in for either fighter missing the 125-pound flyweight limit, and watch whether the 44c go-the-distance quote drifts once real money reaches the method legs, which have traded roughly $7 in lifetime volume so far.