Modestas Bukauskas vs Oumar Sy Prediction Market Odds, September 5, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Bukauskas | — | O 0.5 — | 100% | 100% Polymarket |
Sy | — | U 0.5 — | — | — |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Modestas Bukauskas | — | O 0.5 — | 100% | 100% Polymarket |
Oumar Sy | — | U 0.5 — | — | — |
Oumar Sy is the 69c favorite over Modestas Bukauskas at 32c as of the evening of September 4, 2026, and the method board says the market expects him to win on the cards rather than end it: Sy by KO or TKO is only 14c against that 69c moneyline. Sy is 12-2 with nine of his 12 wins by finish and no losses by strikes. Bukauskas is 20-7 with 14 finishes of his own and five of his seven losses coming by strikes. They meet in a three-round light heavyweight prelim at Accor Arena in Paris on Saturday, September 5, 2026.
Oumar Sy is 69c and Modestas Bukauskas is 32c for the three-round light heavyweight bout at Accor Arena in Paris on Saturday, September 5, 2026, and the favorite owns the physical edge to match the price. Sy stands 6'4" with an 83" reach against Bukauskas at 6'3" and 76", a seven-inch reach advantage. The board carries about $18.2K in lifetime volume. The read it prices is narrower than a 37c moneyline gap suggests, because the fight is 54c to go the distance and Sy's own knockout price is 14c.
Bukauskas vs Sy Market Context
Sy, 30, is 12-2 as a professional and fights out of France, so Paris is a home card for him. Nine of his 12 wins are finishes, five by knockout or TKO and four by submission, and he has never been stopped by strikes. His run since 2024 reads: a submission win over Tuco Tokkos in May 2024, a unanimous decision over Da Woon Jung in September 2024, a unanimous-decision loss to Alonzo Menifield in June 2025, a knockout of Brendson Ribeiro on September 6, 2025, and a submission loss to Ion Cutelaba in March 2026. That last result is the only submission defeat of his career and the only time he has been finished at all.
Bukauskas, 32, is 20-7 and fights out of Lithuania, and he brings 13 more professional bouts than Sy to a three-round fight. He is also the more destructive of the two by volume: 11 of his 20 wins are knockouts or TKOs, three are submissions, and five of his seven losses came by strikes. He took a split decision over Christian Edwards at catchweight in May 2026, which followed a knockout loss to Nikita Krylov at UFC 324 in January 2026. Before that he stopped Paul Craig on the same September 6, 2025 card that Sy fought on, won a split decision over Ion Cutelaba in May 2025, and knocked out Rafael Cerqueira in February 2025.
Cutelaba is the common opponent and the cleanest comparison on the page. Bukauskas beat him on the scorecards in May 2025. Sy was submitted by him ten months later in March 2026. That is the only shared reference the two men have, and it runs against the favorite.
Bukauskas vs Sy Method and Rounds Markets
The prop board is where the read actually lives. Fight to go the distance is 54c, the single most likely outcome priced on this fight. The rounds ladder agrees with it: the fight lasting past 0.5 rounds is 90c, past 1.5 rounds is 73c, and past 2.5 rounds is 59c. A 59c number on the last rung puts a 41% chance on the fight ending before the final two and a half minutes, which is restrained for two men carrying 23 career finishes between them.
Method splits the rest. The fight being won by knockout or TKO is 25c and by submission 20c. Inside the knockout market, Sy is 14c and Bukauskas is 12c, which is close to a coin flip on who lands the finishing shot if strikes end it. That is the number that reframes the fight. Sy is 69c to win and 14c to win by strikes, so roughly four fifths of his win equity is priced on the scorecards rather than on a stoppage. Bukauskas at 32c with a 12c knockout price carries the opposite shape, with more than a third of his win equity sitting in a knockout, consistent with a man who has 11 of them.
The 20c submission market is the live one. Sy has four submission wins in 14 professional fights and Bukauskas has been submitted once in 27, so the grappling route reads toward the favorite. Sy is also the fighter coming off a submission loss, which is why 20c and not lower.
Movement has been quiet. The board holds eight snapshots between 8:16 PM and 10:20 PM ET on September 4, and Sy sat at 69c across all eight while volume on the moneyline ticked up about $30. No price history older than that window exists on this board yet, so nothing here should be read as an open-to-now move.
When the Bukauskas vs Sy Market Resolves
The moneyline resolves to the fighter whose hand is raised when the bout is officiated to a result on September 5, 2026, whether that comes by knockout, technical knockout, submission, or the judges' scorecards. The rounds and method markets settle off the same official result: the rounds ladder pays on how much time had elapsed when the fight ended, and the method markets pay on the official manner of victory recorded by the commission. A no contest, a draw, or a cancellation voids under each platform's own rules rather than paying either side.
Key Bukauskas vs Sy Catalysts
- The Cutelaba comparison: Bukauskas outpointed Ion Cutelaba in May 2025, Sy was submitted by him in March 2026, and it is the only common opponent the two share.
- Reach and frame: Sy's 83" reach against Bukauskas's 76" is the structural argument for the 69c price and for a fight that stays at range.
- Bukauskas's chin: five of his seven career losses came by strikes, including the Krylov knockout in January 2026, which is the fastest route to a Sy finish.
- The 54c distance price: it is the highest single number on the prop board and the anchor every other market is drawn against.
- Sy's submission defense: he had never been finished before Cutelaba caught him in March 2026, and the 20c submission market prices whether that was an outlier.
- Three rounds, not five: this is a prelim distance, which compresses the time available for the finish the 25c knockout market is asking for.
Related Bukauskas vs Sy and UFC Paris Markets
The rest of the Paris card trades on the same board set. The main event between Dan Hooker and Salahdine Parnasse headlines the night, and the heavyweight prelim between Ryan Spann and Mario Pinto prices a far more lopsided finish profile than this fight does, with its distance market at 21c. Michael Page against Nursulton Ruziboev is the other main-card fight with real volume behind it. For the division-level picture that a win here feeds into, the 2026 UFC light heavyweight title market tracks the contenders, and the full slate of live boards sits on the sports hub.
Resolution Criteria
This market resolves to the fighter who wins the light heavyweight bout between Modestas Bukauskas and Oumar Sy at Accor Arena in Paris on Saturday, September 5, 2026, scheduled for three rounds on the preliminary card. A winning contract pays $1 per share and the losing side pays $0. The result is taken from the official decision announced in the arena and recorded by the sanctioning commission, covering knockout, technical knockout, submission, disqualification, and every form of judges' decision. The rounds markets settle on the elapsed time at the moment the bout is stopped, and the method markets settle on the official manner of victory. If the bout is cancelled, postponed beyond the platform's stated deadline, ruled a draw, or overturned to a no contest, the contracts void and refund under each platform's published rules.
Key Factors
- Ion Cutelaba is the common opponent: Bukauskas beat him on the cards in May 2025, Sy was submitted by him in March 2026
- Sy's 83-inch reach against Bukauskas's 76-inch reach, a seven-inch edge at light heavyweight
- Bukauskas has five knockout or TKO losses in seven career defeats, including Nikita Krylov in January 2026
- Fight to go the distance at 54c is the highest single price on the prop board
- Sy is 14c to win by knockout against a 69c moneyline, so his win equity is priced on the scorecards
- Three-round prelim distance compresses the window for the 25c knockout market
What are the current Bukauskas vs Sy odds?
As of the evening of September 4, 2026, the board has Oumar Sy at 69c and Modestas Bukauskas at 32c for their light heavyweight bout on September 5, 2026. The live board above carries the current quotes.
Where can I trade the Bukauskas vs Sy market?
Both Kalshi and Polymarket list the Bukauskas vs Sy fight from UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse. The quotes rendered on the board above come from Polymarket, where the moneyline holds about $17.7K in lifetime volume.
Who is favored in Bukauskas vs Sy?
Oumar Sy is the favorite at 69c, an implied 69% chance of winning, against Modestas Bukauskas at 32c. Sy is 12-2 as a professional and Bukauskas is 20-7.
When does the Bukauskas vs Sy market resolve?
It resolves once the bout is officiated to a result on Saturday, September 5, 2026. The preliminary card at Accor Arena in Paris begins at 12:00 PM ET and the fight is scheduled for three rounds.
Will Bukauskas vs Sy go the distance?
The board prices fight to go the distance at 54c, with the knockout or TKO market at 25c and the submission market at 20c. The rounds ladder has the fight lasting past 2.5 rounds at 59c.
What should I watch before Bukauskas vs Sy resolves?
Watch the submission market, which sits at 20c after Sy was submitted by Ion Cutelaba in March 2026, the only finish loss of his career. Weigh-in results and any late change to the September 5, 2026 card are the other movers.