Quentin Pasley vs Arlind Berisha Prediction Market Odds, September 8, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Pasley | — | O 0.5 — | 0% | — |
Berisha | — | U 0.5 — | 100% | 100% Polymarket |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Quentin Pasley | — | O 0.5 — | 0% | — |
Arlind Berisha | — | U 0.5 — | 100% | 100% Polymarket |
Arlind Berisha is the favorite over Quentin Pasley in the light heavyweight bout closing Dana White's Contender Series Season 10, Week 5 at Meta APEX in Las Vegas on September 8, 2026, and the board carries roughly $2.6K in lifetime volume. Berisha brings a 5-0 record with five finishes, four by TKO and one by submission. Pasley is 3-0 and has stopped all three opponents. Between them the two prospects own eight professional wins and zero decisions, which is why the distance prop trades so cheap. The live board above has the current cross-platform prices.
Eight professional fights between them, eight finishes, no scorecards. That is the durable fact that shapes every price on this board. Arlind Berisha (5-0) and Quentin Pasley (3-0) meet in a three-round light heavyweight bout on Dana White's Contender Series Season 10, Week 5 at Meta APEX in Las Vegas, with the card scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2026 on Paramount+. Both men are fighting for a UFC contract, and neither has ever needed a judge.
Pasley vs Berisha Market Context
The moneyline sits at Berisha 59c and Pasley 42c as of the morning of September 8, 2026, a 1c overround and a read of roughly 58% to 42% once you strip it out. The market is paying for volume of evidence rather than a style edge. Berisha has two more professional wins on his ledger and a submission on top of four TKOs, so his finishing menu is broader. Pasley's three wins are all TKOs, which is a narrower but louder resume.
The physical profile argues the opposite direction from the price. Berisha is 6-foot-6 and weighs in at 205 pounds, but his reach is 77 inches. Pasley is 6-foot-4 at 204 pounds with a 78-inch reach, so the shorter man owns the longer arms by an inch. Both fight orthodox. Berisha is 25 and Pasley is 24, so there is no meaningful experience-versus-athleticism split to lean on either. In a division where a single clean right hand ends the night, a one-inch reach edge for the underdog is the most concrete argument against the 59c favorite.
Contender Series pricing also carries a structural quirk worth naming. These are prospects with short records and thin tape, so the books have far less to work with than they do on a numbered UFC card. That shows up directly in the money: the moneyline pair has traded about $2.5K in lifetime volume, which is a real but shallow book. A price built on 3-0 and 5-0 records moves faster on a single piece of news than a price built on 25 professional fights.
Pasley vs Berisha Finish Props and Line Movement
The method props are where this board says something the moneyline does not. Fight to Go the Distance trades at 21c, implying a 79% chance the bout ends inside three rounds. That lines up exactly with the 8-for-8 finish history between the two men, and it is the cleanest expression of the matchup available.
The Pasley KO/TKO prop is quoted at 43c against his 42c moneyline. Read literally, the market gives Pasley no path to victory other than a stoppage, which matches a 3-0 record built entirely on TKOs. Both prop books are thin, with about $20 and $17 of lifetime volume, so treat them as indications of where the market leans rather than as firm prices. The round-total rungs above 0.5 are unquoted, so there is no tradeable read on which specific round a finish lands in.
On movement, the board's snapshot history runs from 00:13 UTC to 12:02 UTC on September 8, which covers roughly 8:13 PM ET Monday through 8:02 AM ET Tuesday. Berisha opened that window at 60c, ticked down to 59c at 05:47 UTC, and has held 59c through the latest capture. A single cent of drift across twelve hours on a $2.5K book is a market that has not changed its mind, not a market that has been tested.
When the Pasley vs Berisha Market Resolves
The market resolves on the official result of the Pasley vs Berisha bout at Meta APEX on September 8, 2026. The winning fighter's contract pays $1 per share and the losing side settles at $0. The bout is scheduled for three rounds, so a decision, a knockout, a technical knockout, a submission, or a stoppage on doctor or referee intervention all count as a winner being declared. Exchanges settle once the result is official, typically within hours of the final bell.
Key Pasley vs Berisha Catalysts
Combined finish rate: Eight wins and eight finishes between the two fighters, which is what holds the distance prop at 21c.
Reach versus height: Berisha is two inches taller at 6-foot-6, and Pasley owns the 78-inch reach by an inch, so the physical edges split.
Book depth: About $2.5K of lifetime moneyline volume means a single sizable order moves this price further than it would on a numbered card.
Contract stakes: A Contender Series winner is auditioning for a UFC contract awarded at the promoter's discretion after the card, so the reward sits above the result itself.
Weigh-in and late replacement risk: Short-notice changes and missed weight hit Contender Series cards more often than they hit main-roster events, and either would reprice the board immediately.
Prop-to-moneyline consistency: Pasley's 43c KO/TKO quote sitting at or above his 42c moneyline is the market saying his only realistic route is a stoppage.
Related Pasley vs Berisha Markets
The winner of this bout is chasing a roster spot in the division priced on the 2026 UFC light heavyweight title market, which is where the contender tier above these prospects trades. For a broader view of how the promotion's stars are valued, the next UFC pound-for-pound No. 1 market tracks the fighters at the other end of that path, and the 2026 UFC middleweight champion board covers the weight class directly below. Every open fight on the promotion's schedule is listed on the UFC prediction market hub, and the full day's slate of live boards across every league sits on today's odds page.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to the fighter declared the official winner of the Quentin Pasley vs Arlind Berisha light heavyweight bout at Meta APEX in Las Vegas on September 8, 2026. The bout is scheduled for three rounds and can end by knockout, technical knockout, submission, referee or doctor stoppage, disqualification, or judges' decision. The winning fighter's contract pays $1 per share and the other side settles at $0. If the bout is canceled, postponed beyond the platform's stated deadline, or ruled a no contest, contracts void or resolve per each platform's published no-contest rules. A majority or unanimous draw is handled under the same platform-specific rules, since neither side would be declared the winner.
Key Factors
- Combined 8-0 finish rate between the two fighters, holding Fight to Go the Distance at 21c
- Berisha is 6-foot-6 to Pasley's 6-foot-4, but Pasley owns the reach edge at 78 inches to 77
- Roughly $2.5K of lifetime moneyline volume makes this a shallow book that reprices on single orders
- Contender Series contract stakes, with a UFC deal awarded at the promoter's discretion after the card
- Pasley's 43c KO/TKO prop sits at or above his 42c moneyline, implying no decision path
- Missed weight or a late replacement is a live risk on Contender Series cards and would reprice the board
What are the current Pasley vs Berisha odds?
As of the morning of September 8, 2026, Arlind Berisha is the 59c favorite and Quentin Pasley trades at 42c on the board, a 1c overround. The live board above carries the current prices.
Who is favored in Pasley vs Berisha?
Arlind Berisha is favored at 59c, an implied probability of about 58% once the 1c overround is stripped out. He is 5-0 with five finishes to Quentin Pasley's 3-0 with three TKOs.
When does the Pasley vs Berisha market resolve?
It resolves on the official result of the bout at Meta APEX in Las Vegas on September 8, 2026. The Dana White's Contender Series Season 10, Week 5 card is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on Paramount+, and exchanges settle within hours of the final bell.
Where can I trade the Pasley vs Berisha market?
The bout prices on prediction market exchanges, and Prediction Genius aggregates Kalshi and Polymarket quotes into the single cross-platform board above so one page shows every available price.
Will Pasley vs Berisha go the distance?
The market says no. Fight to Go the Distance trades at 21c, implying a 79% chance of a finish inside three rounds, which matches the eight finishes in eight combined professional wins. That prop book is thin at about $17 of lifetime volume, so treat it as an indication.
What should I watch before Pasley vs Berisha resolves?
Watch the September 7 weigh-in result and any late replacement, both of which hit Contender Series cards more often than main-roster events. Berisha has held 59c since 05:47 UTC on September 8, so any move off that number before the 7:00 PM ET card start is new information.