Fever vs Mercury Prediction Market Odds, July 9, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Fever | -1.5 54%44% | O 171.5 80%77% | 58%57% | 58% Kalshi |
â–¶Mercury | +1.5 46%56% | U 171.5 20%23% | 43%43% | 43% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Indiana Fever | -1.5 | O 171.5 | 58% Kalshi | |
â–¶Phoenix Mercury | +1.5 | U 171.5 | 43% Kalshi |
The Fever vs Mercury prediction market is a coin flip. Indiana (12-8) travels to Phoenix (8-14) on July 9, 2026, and despite a four-game gap in the standings the moneyline sits at a near-even split, with Phoenix the razor-thin home favorite on the live board above. The gap between record and price is the story here: ESPN's model gives road-team Indiana a 54.9% edge while the market and the DraftKings line (Phoenix -1.5) treat home court and Indiana's injury losses as the equalizer.
Indiana enters at 12-8 and Phoenix at 8-14, a four-game spread in the standings that the market almost entirely ignores. The Fever vs Mercury moneyline prices as a coin flip, with Phoenix holding the slimmest of home edges on the live board above. That compression is driven by two things: home court in Phoenix and Indiana's frontcourt injury, and it sets up a clean gap between the model read and the market read.
Fever vs Mercury Market Context
ESPN's predictor favors Indiana at 54.9% to Phoenix's 45.1%, and the record supports it: the Fever are 12-8 with the deeper resume, while the Mercury are 8-14 and just 5-7 at home. The prediction market disagrees, pricing Phoenix as the marginal favorite, and the DraftKings line lands in the same place at Phoenix -1.5 with a total of 174.5. When a road team with the better record and the model edge is still not the market favorite, the driver is almost always availability, and that holds here.
Indiana is without Aliyah Boston, who is out with a leg injury after leading the Fever in rebounding at 8.6 per game. Boston is the interior anchor, and her absence reshapes both the spread and the total. Caitlin Clark is active and remains the offensive engine at 8.2 assists per game, and Kelsey Mitchell leads the team in scoring at 21.9 points per game. Phoenix counters with Kahleah Copper at 20.8 points per game, but the Mercury are banged up too: Natasha Mack (8.3 rebounds per game) is out, Sami Whitcomb and Jovana Nogic are out, and Alyssa Thomas, the team's assist leader at 8.2 per game, is listed day-to-day. Thomas being a game-time call is the single largest swing factor on the board.
Both teams arrive 3-2 over their last five, so recent form does not separate them. The head-to-head does lean Phoenix, who took a recent meeting 111-109 in a track meet, and that result feeds directly into the total. The market total sits near 174, matching the DraftKings 174.5, and the over-heavy ladder on the live board above reflects two offenses that just combined for 220 points when they last met.
When the Fever vs Mercury Market Resolves
The market resolves on July 9, 2026, when the game goes final in Phoenix. The moneyline pays the team that wins the game outright, the spread settles against the final margin, and the total settles on the combined points. Contracts settle on Kalshi and Polymarket once the result is official.
Key Fever vs Mercury Catalysts
Alyssa Thomas availability: Phoenix's assist leader (8.2 per game) is day-to-day and is the largest single price-mover on the board.
Boston out for Indiana: the Fever play without their leading rebounder (8.6 per game), which reshapes the spread and pushes the total.
Model vs market gap: ESPN's 54.9% read on Indiana against a market that favors Phoenix is the value question on the moneyline.
Cross-platform spread: Indiana drew a wider price on one platform earlier in the session before the two books converged, so watch the live board above for any re-widening.
Total lands near 174.5: the two offenses combined for 220 points in their last meeting, and the over ladder is priced accordingly.
Related Fever vs Mercury Markets
Compare this game against the rest of the slate on the WNBA hub and the broader basketball markets page. For every live game and futures market across the sport, the sports hub tracks cross-platform prices on Kalshi and Polymarket in one place.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to the outcome of the Indiana Fever at Phoenix Mercury game played July 9, 2026 in Phoenix. The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game outright. The spread market settles against the final margin of victory, and the total market settles on the combined final points scored by both teams. Each contract pays $1 per share on the winning outcome and $0 otherwise. If the game is postponed, it settles on the rescheduled result per each platform's rules; if canceled outright, contracts void and refund per platform policy.
Key Factors
- Alyssa Thomas listed day-to-day for Phoenix (8.2 assists per game, largest single price-mover)
- Aliyah Boston out for Indiana with a leg injury (8.6 rebounds per game, reshapes spread and total)
- ESPN model favors Indiana at 54.9% while the market favors Phoenix, the moneyline value gap
- Caitlin Clark active and driving the Fever offense at 8.2 assists per game
- Total sits near the DraftKings 174.5 after the teams combined for 220 in a recent 111-109 meeting
- Phoenix is 5-7 at home despite the 8-14 overall record, the home-court equalizer
What are the current Fever vs Mercury odds?
As of July 8, 2026, the moneyline is a coin flip. Phoenix Mercury is the razor-thin favorite at 51.5c on average (52c Kalshi, 51c Polymarket) versus Indiana Fever at 50.5c (52c Kalshi, 49c Polymarket).
Who is favored in Fever vs Mercury?
The market makes Phoenix the marginal home favorite, matching the DraftKings line of Phoenix -1.5. ESPN's model disagrees, giving Indiana a 54.9% win probability on the strength of its 12-8 record versus Phoenix's 8-14.
Where can I trade the Fever vs Mercury market?
The game trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with moneyline, spread, and total markets. The live board above compares cross-platform prices on each line so you can see where the two books diverge.
What is the spread and total for Fever vs Mercury?
The market total sits near 174, matching the DraftKings total of 174.5, and the spread is essentially a pick'em with Phoenix laying 1.5 points at home. Indiana plays without Aliyah Boston, which shapes both lines.
When does the Fever vs Mercury market resolve?
The market resolves on July 9, 2026, once the game goes final in Phoenix. The moneyline pays the outright winner, the spread settles on the final margin, and the total settles on the combined points scored.