| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Fever | -7.5 54%54% | O 187.5 52%53% | 54%54% | 54% Kalshi |
â–¶PortlandFire | +7.5 46%46% | U 187.5 48%47% | 26% | 26% Polymarket |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Indiana Fever | -7.5 | O 187.5 | 54% Kalshi | |
â–¶PortlandFire | +7.5 | U 187.5 | 26% Polymarket |
Indiana is the 74.5c favorite into Portland, priced 74c on Kalshi and 75c on Polymarket, with the expansion Fire at 26c on Polymarket, the only book carrying a Fire moneyline on this board. The Fever arrive 18-10 and winners of four straight, including a 105-95 win at Seattle on July 29, while Portland is 11-17 and has dropped three in a row. The spread ladder pivots at Indiana -7.5 (54c on both books) and the total sits near 188, across roughly $57K of cumulative two-platform volume. Current prices are on the live board above.
Indiana carries the shorter number into Moda Center at 74.5c, the average of 74c on Kalshi and 75c on Polymarket, and Portland trades at 26c on Polymarket. That is a 3-to-1 favorite on the road, which is what a 18-10 team with a 7-5 road record gets against an 11-17 expansion club. Tip is 10:00 p.m. ET on ION.
The Fever are 18-10 overall and 11-5 at home, and their recent scoreboard is why the market prices them this short. Indiana has won four in a row: 110-107 over Seattle on July 17, 108-88 over New York on July 19, 123-88 over Connecticut on July 23, and 105-95 at Seattle on July 29. Kelsey Mitchell leads the team at 23.5 points per game, Aliyah Boston at 8.2 rebounds per game, and Caitlin Clark at 7.9 assists per game while averaging 21.5 points. Clark returned on July 8 from a back injury that first surfaced on June 24 and has carried a minutes restriction since, listing as probable for Indiana's recent games. Her workload is the single largest swing factor on this board.
Portland is 11-17 in its first WNBA season and 6-7 at Moda Center, and the form line runs the other way. The Fire have lost three straight: 93-101 at Minnesota on July 19, 97-101 to Dallas on July 23, and 83-98 at Las Vegas on July 29. Carla Leite leads the roster at 15.2 points and 5.9 assists per game, and Emily Engstler leads the rebounding at 5.4 per game. The franchise has been a genuine attendance story, with 19,335 at the home opener setting a WNBA record for an expansion debut, but the on-court result has been a sub-.500 season and a home court that has not been worth much of a price adjustment.
The moneyline is the tightest cross-platform quote on the board. Kalshi has Indiana at 74c and Polymarket has the same side at 75c, a 1c gap that leaves no meaningful edge on either book. The underdog side is the asymmetry: Portland's 26c is a Polymarket-only price, because Kalshi does not render a Fire moneyline in this group. Anyone shopping the underdog has one venue, not two, and no second quote to check it against.
The spread ladder is where the market states its real opinion. Indiana -7.5 prices at 54c on both Kalshi and Polymarket, and Indiana -8.5 sits at 49c on Polymarket. That brackets the true number between 7.5 and 8.5 points and matches the sportsbook line, which opened Indiana -7.5 and moved to -8.5. Further out the ladder, Indiana -1.5 is 73c and Indiana -4.5 is 64c on Kalshi, while Indiana -13.5 drops to 32c and -16.5 to 25c. Portland -1.5 at 24c is the cleanest read on the Fire's outright win equity from the Kalshi side of the board.
The total is priced high. Over 184.5 trades at 59.5c (60c Kalshi, 59c Polymarket), Over 187.5 at 52c on both books, and Over 190.5 at 46c on Kalshi. The coin-flip point is therefore right around 188, and the sportsbook total moved the same direction, from 183.5 at open to 188.5. Two teams that combined for 105-95 and 98-83 results in their most recent outings support that number.
On line movement, the favorite has firmed rather than drifted. Indiana opened the session at 73c on Kalshi and 74c on Polymarket and now trades 74c and 75c, a one-point gain on both books with roughly $13.3K of Kalshi volume and $1.5K of Polymarket volume behind the moneyline. That is a held line with a slow bid, not a repricing. The prop board, which is Polymarket-listed, carries Clark points at 20.5, Clark assists at 8.5, Mitchell points at 22.5, Boston points at 16.5 and rebounds at 8.5, and Leite points at 14.5. Those prop lines are the cleanest available signal on how much Clark the market expects to see.
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game at Moda Center on July 31, 2026, tipping at 10:00 p.m. ET. Spread and total contracts settle against the official final score, including any overtime. Both platforms settle within hours of the final whistle, so the contracts are typically closed the same night.
Clark's minutes: she returned July 8 from a back injury and has been on a restriction since, and her 7.9 assists per game drive Indiana's half-court offense.
Indiana's streak: four straight wins, with margins of 3, 20, 35, and 10 points, is the direct justification for a 74.5c road price.
Portland's slide: three straight losses and a 6-7 home record mean the Fire get almost no venue credit in the 26c number.
The total near 188: the sportsbook number climbed from 183.5 to 188.5 and Over 187.5 sits at 52c, so pace is being priced up, not down.
One book on the dog: the Fire moneyline exists only on Polymarket at 26c, so there is no cross-platform check on the underdog price.
The other side of this slate trades on the Seattle Storm at Atlanta Dream board, where the Dream's 17-10 record meets a 6-24 Storm team. Indiana's 18-10 record also feeds directly into the WNBA Finals champion market, which is the futures read on whether this four-game run is a real title case or a soft-schedule artifact. For the full league board, including every team hub and the rest of the season's game markets, start at the WNBA hub or the broader basketball category. Every game on the slate is indexed on today's board.
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the Indiana Fever at Portland Fire game played at Moda Center in Portland on July 31, 2026, with a scheduled tip of 10:00 p.m. ET. Each winning contract pays $1 per share and the losing side resolves to $0. Spread contracts settle against the official final score margin, and total contracts settle against the combined official final score, in both cases including overtime. The source of truth is the official WNBA box score. If the game is postponed and replayed on a later date, both platforms carry the contracts to the rescheduled date under their standard postponement rules; if the game is canceled outright and not replayed, contracts void and resolve per each platform's cancellation policy.
Indiana is the 74.5c favorite as of July 31, 2026, priced 74c on Kalshi and 75c on Polymarket. Portland trades at 26c on Polymarket, the only book carrying a Fire moneyline on this board.
Indiana is favored at 74.5c, an implied win probability of about 75% on July 31, 2026. The spread market agrees, pricing Indiana -7.5 at 54c on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
The game trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with roughly $57K in cumulative volume across the two platforms. The Indiana moneyline alone carries about $13.3K on Kalshi and $1.5K on Polymarket.
Indiana -7.5 prices at 54c on both books and Indiana -8.5 at 49c on Polymarket, so the market number sits between 7.5 and 8.5 points. The total is near 188, with Over 187.5 at 52c on both books as of July 31, 2026.
It resolves on the official final score of the game at Moda Center on July 31, 2026, which tips at 10:00 p.m. ET. Both platforms typically settle within hours of the final whistle.
Watch the Indiana injury report for Caitlin Clark, who returned July 8 from a back injury and has carried a minutes restriction since. Her status is the most likely input to move the 74.5c line before the July 31, 2026 tip.