| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Aces | -6.5 49%48% | O 181.5 56% | 70%70% | 70% Kalshi |
â–¶Sky | +6.5 51%52% | U 181.5 44% | 30%31% | 31% Polymarket |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Las Vegas Aces | -6.5 | O 181.5 | 70% Kalshi | |
â–¶Chicago Sky | +6.5 | U 181.5 | 31% Polymarket |
Las Vegas is the 71c road favorite at Chicago on August 1, 2026, and Kalshi and Polymarket print the identical number on both sides, so there is no cross-platform edge on the moneyline. The Aces are 20-8 overall and 11-3 away from home; the Sky are 10-18 and 6-7 at Wintrust Arena. Las Vegas has won both meetings this season by exactly 8 points, 107-99 in Chicago and 98-90 at home. The live board above carries the current moneyline, the full spread ladder, and the total.
Chicago comes in off a 94-88 win over Connecticut and the market still prices the Sky at 30c against a Las Vegas team that has taken both meetings this season. The Aces sit 20-8, second in the Western Conference and three games behind Minnesota (24-6). The Sky are 10-18, tied with Toronto for fifth in the East and eight games behind Atlanta and Indiana (both 18-10). ESPN's matchup model gives Las Vegas a 66.5% win probability, so the 71c board price is the more confident of the two reads. The live board above shows the current cross-platform moneyline, the spread ladder, and the total.
Las Vegas is 11-3 on the road and 9-5 at home, an inversion that matters on a board where the Aces are the visiting favorite. A'ja Wilson drives the offense at 26.4 points and 9.7 rebounds per game on 53.5% shooting from the field and 85.0% from the line, with Chelsea Gray running it at 7.1 assists in 33.0 minutes. Chicago answers with Kamilla Cardoso at 14.5 points and 8.3 rebounds on 59.0% shooting, and Natasha Cloud at 4.6 assists in 28.1 minutes. The Wilson and Cardoso rebounding matchup is the one place the Sky have a genuine personnel counter, and it is also where the WNBA market has priced the most prop inventory.
Availability tilts the same direction as the price. Chicago is without Skylar Diggins (knee), Rickea Jackson (knee), and Azura Stevens (personal), which is a starting-caliber backcourt plus a frontcourt rotation piece. Las Vegas is without Cheyenne Parker-Tyus (concussion), Kierstan Bell (leg), and Janiah Barker (leg), all bench minutes rather than starters. That gap between what each team is missing is the strongest single argument for the 41c spread between the two sides.
Form is closer than the records read. Chicago is 3-2 over its last five, beating Seattle 95-90 on July 15 and Los Angeles 96-82 on July 17 at home, dropping road games at Atlanta 93-91 on July 19 and at New York 95-94 on July 22, then taking Connecticut 94-88 on July 30. The Sky have scored at least 91 points in all five. Las Vegas is also 3-2 in that window: a 109-75 home loss to Indiana on July 12, a 109-83 win at Toronto on July 20, a 100-99 loss at Washington on July 22, a 98-83 win over Portland on July 28, and a 104-99 win over New York on July 30. Both teams played the night of July 30 and both had July 31 off, so rest is even.
Kalshi's spread ladder puts Las Vegas -6.5 at exactly 50c, which is the market naming 6.5 points as the fair number and matching the DraftKings line of Aces -6.5. The rest of the ladder is priced consistently around it: Las Vegas -1.5 at 66c, -3.5 at 60c, -9.5 at 39c, -12.5 at 28c, and -18.5 at 15c. Chicago -1.5 trades at 29c against a 30c Sky moneyline, which says the market sees essentially no path where Chicago wins a close game that it does not also win outright.
The total is the livelier side. Kalshi prices Over 181.5 at 57c and Over 184.5 at 48c, which interpolates to a market total near 184. Polymarket lists its 182.5 and 183.5 lines at 52c and 51c, and DraftKings posts 183.5. Both prior meetings cleared that number, landing at 206 and 188 combined points, and Chicago's floor has been high even in defeat.
Line movement has been quiet at the top of the board. Las Vegas printed 71c on Kalshi across every snapshot in the current window and Polymarket printed the same 71c, so the favorite has held flat. The movement showed up underneath: Kalshi's Las Vegas -1.5 slipped from 67c to 66c and -3.5 from 61c to 60c, while Over 181.5 ticked up from 55c to 57c. That is a market trimming the blowout scenario and buying points, not one changing its mind about the winner.
Cross-platform, this is one of the tighter WNBA boards of the day. The moneyline is identical on both venues at 71c and 30c on a verified pair, and Kalshi carries the deeper book at roughly $6.7K on the Las Vegas side against $3.3K on Chicago. The real divergence is inventory rather than price: Polymarket is the only side listing player props, including Wilson points over 27.5 at 30c, Cardoso points over 13.5 at 51c, and Jackie Young assists over 7.5 at 48c.
The game is played at Wintrust Arena in Chicago on Saturday, August 1, 2026, and every contract on the board settles once it goes final. The moneyline pays on the winner, the spread ladder pays on the final margin, and the total pays on combined points including overtime. Kalshi and Polymarket both settle against the official WNBA final score, typically within hours of the buzzer.
Both teams last played on July 30, and those boards are the cleanest read on current form: the Aces held off New York in the Liberty at Aces market and Chicago handled Connecticut in the Sun at Sky market. For the season-long view on the player driving this line, the ESPY best WNBA player market is where Wilson's individual case is priced. The full slate of daily boards, spreads, and totals lives on the WNBA hub, and the wider basketball category covers the NBA and college markets alongside it.
The Aces vs Sky moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game at Wintrust Arena in Chicago on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Each winning team contract pays $1 per share and the losing side resolves to $0. The spread ladder settles on the final margin, so a Las Vegas contract at a given number pays only if the Aces win by more than that number, and the total settles on combined points scored by both teams including any overtime. Kalshi and Polymarket both settle against the official final score published by the WNBA once the game is declared final. If the game is postponed, contracts settle on the rescheduled result within each platform's stated window; if it is canceled outright, both platforms void and refund per their own rules.
As of August 1, 2026, Las Vegas trades at 71c and Chicago at 30c, with Kalshi and Polymarket printing the identical price on both sides. After the 1c vig that is roughly a 70% implied win probability for the Aces.
Las Vegas is the favorite at 71c despite playing on the road. Kalshi's Las Vegas -6.5 spread contract trades at exactly 50c on August 1, 2026, which matches the DraftKings line of Aces -6.5 and ESPN's 66.5% model projection.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket list the game. Kalshi carries the deeper moneyline book at roughly $6.7K on the Las Vegas side against $3.3K on Chicago, plus the full spread and total ladder. Polymarket is the only side offering player props.
Kalshi prices Over 181.5 at 57c and Over 184.5 at 48c on August 1, 2026, which interpolates to a market total near 184. Polymarket's 183.5 line sits at 51c and DraftKings posts 183.5. Both prior meetings finished above that at 206 and 188 combined points.
Chicago's guard rotation with Skylar Diggins and Rickea Jackson out, and whether the total keeps climbing. The 71c moneyline held flat through the latest snapshot window while Kalshi's Over 181.5 moved from 55c to 57c, so the points market is the one still repricing.