| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Aces | -10.5 51% | O 183.5 45%44% | 84%84% | 84% Kalshi |
â–¶Tempo | +10.5 49% | U 183.5 55%56% | 17%17% | 17% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Las Vegas Aces | -10.5 | O 183.5 | 84% Kalshi | |
â–¶Toronto Tempo | +10.5 | U 183.5 | 17% Kalshi |
The Las Vegas Aces are the 83c road favorite (83c Kalshi, 83c Polymarket) at the expansion Toronto Tempo on July 20, 2026, the widest moneyline gap on the WNBA slate. Las Vegas enters 17-7 and a league-best 10-2 on the road; Toronto sits 10-15 and 6-9 at home in its inaugural season, trading 18c to win. Both books agree on the number, and the spread is pinned near Las Vegas -10.5 to -11.5. The live board above carries current cross-platform prices.
The Las Vegas Aces are the 83c road favorite (83c Kalshi, 83c Polymarket) at Toronto on July 20, 2026, the widest moneyline gap on the WNBA slate. Las Vegas enters 17-7 overall and a league-best 10-2 away from home, while the expansion Toronto Tempo sit 10-15 in their inaugural 2026 season and 6-9 at Coca-Cola Coliseum. Toronto trades at 18c to pull the home upset.
Both books price this game identically: Las Vegas 83c, Toronto 18c, with no cross-platform gap on the moneyline to arbitrage. The 83c line implies about an 83% chance the Aces win outright, and the two exchanges have converged on that number. The Aces moneyline opened at 82c on Kalshi and 81c on Polymarket earlier in the session and firmed to 83c on both, with Toronto easing from 20c to 18c on Kalshi. The chalk held and tightened rather than drifting.
The road resume is the anchor. Las Vegas is 10-2 away from home, the best road record in the WNBA, and A'ja Wilson is carrying 25.5 points and 9.8 rebounds per game with Chelsea Gray distributing 7.4 assists. Toronto counters with Marina Mabrey at 21.2 points per game and Julie Allemand at 5.5 assists, but the Tempo are 6-9 at Coca-Cola Coliseum and give up a clear talent gap to the Aces. At 18c, Toronto is priced as a live home dog rather than a coin flip.
DraftKings set the number at Las Vegas -11.5 with a total of 182.5, and the prediction markets line up close. Polymarket prices the Aces -10.5 at 54c, essentially a coin flip on whether Las Vegas covers a double-digit margin. Kalshi posts the full ladder: the Aces to win by over 9.5 points trades at 57c and by over 12.5 at 47c, which brackets the market's implied margin around 10 to 11 points. On the total, Polymarket's O/U 181.5 sits at 54c while Kalshi's over 180.5 is 56c and over 183.5 is 48c, framing an implied total near 181 to 182. Kalshi carries the granular ladder; Polymarket condenses the same read into single alt lines, so the structural difference is depth, not disagreement.
The market resolves to the winner of the game at Coca-Cola Coliseum in Toronto, scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on July 20, 2026. The moneyline settles on the final score, the spread on Las Vegas's margin of victory or defeat against the posted number, and the total on combined points scored. Each contract pays $1 per share if correct and $0 if not, settled on Kalshi and Polymarket once the game goes final. A postponement past the resolution window voids per each platform's rules.
Cross-platform read: The Aces sit at 83c on both Kalshi and Polymarket, leaving no moneyline gap to arbitrage.
Road strength: Las Vegas is 10-2 away from home, the best road record in the WNBA, in a road spot at Toronto.
Wilson matchup: A'ja Wilson is producing 25.5 points and 9.8 rebounds per game against an expansion defense.
Spread: The number is pinned at Las Vegas -10.5 to -11.5, with Kalshi's over 9.5 at 57c and over 12.5 at 47c.
Total: The implied total sits near 181 to 182, with Polymarket's O/U 181.5 at 54c.
Toronto's ceiling: The Tempo are 6-9 at home in their inaugural 2026 season and trade at 18c to win outright.
Las Vegas is a live contender on the WNBA title board, and A'ja Wilson anchors the WNBA MVP market. Toronto's season arc runs through its playoff-berth market, and both franchises live on the WNBA league hub alongside the rest of the slate.
Resolves to the winner of the Las Vegas Aces at Toronto Tempo game at Coca-Cola Coliseum in Toronto, scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on July 20, 2026. The moneyline settles on the final score, the spread on Las Vegas's margin against the posted number, and the total on combined points scored. Each contract pays $1 per share if correct and $0 otherwise, settled on Kalshi and Polymarket once the game is final. If the game is postponed past the resolution window or canceled, the contracts void per each platform's rules.
As of July 20, 2026, the Aces are the 83c favorite (83c Kalshi, 83c Polymarket), about an 83% implied chance to win, with the Toronto Tempo at 18c. The live board above shows the current prices.
It resolves when the game goes final at Coca-Cola Coliseum in Toronto, scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on July 20, 2026. The moneyline settles on the winner, the spread and total on the final score.
On Kalshi and Polymarket. The moneyline is priced identically at 83c on both, while Kalshi posts the full spread and total ladders and Polymarket condenses them into single alt lines.
Las Vegas is favored at 83c, roughly an 83% implied chance, behind a 17-7 record and a league-best 10-2 road mark. Toronto trades at 18c at 10-15 and 6-9 at home in its inaugural season.
Watch A'ja Wilson's availability and the spread, which is pinned at Las Vegas -10.5 to -11.5, plus whether the 83c moneyline holds or Toronto's home crowd tightens it before the July 20, 2026 tip.