| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Aces | -7.5 46% | O 161.5 56%54% | 69%70% | 70% Polymarket |
â–¶Mystics | +7.5 54% | U 161.5 44%46% | 32%31% | 32% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Las Vegas Aces | -7.5 | O 161.5 | 70% Polymarket | |
â–¶Washington Mystics | +7.5 | U 161.5 | 32% Kalshi |
The Las Vegas Aces are the road chalk against the Washington Mystics on July 22, 2026, priced at 70c on the moneyline (69c Kalshi, 70c Polymarket) for an implied win probability near 70%. That read follows the records: Las Vegas is 18-7 overall and 11-2 on the road, while Washington sits at 13-12 and 5-6 at home. The two books agree to within a cent on the favorite, and the line has held flat through the pre-game window. The live board above tracks the current cross-platform moneyline, spread, and total.
The Las Vegas Aces carry a two-book consensus near 70c against the Washington Mystics, one of the wider moneyline gaps on the July 22, 2026 slate. Las Vegas is a title-winning franchise, back-to-back WNBA champions in 2022 and 2023, and enters at 18-7 with a road split of 11-2 that ranks among the best travel records in the league. Washington, at 13-12 and 5-6 at home, is the value side only if the home floor closes the talent gap.
The moneyline prices Las Vegas at 69c on Kalshi and 70c on Polymarket, a 1c spread that signals the two exchanges see this game the same way. Washington sits at 32c on Kalshi and 31c on Polymarket, an implied win probability near 31%. Across the pre-game snapshot window the favorite did not move: the Aces held at 69c on Kalshi and 70c on Polymarket start to finish, so there is no steam to fade here, just a stable number backed by the 18-7 record. With books within a cent, there is no cross-platform arbitrage on the moneyline, though Kalshi carries the deeper book at roughly $20K in volume on the Aces side versus a thinner Polymarket market.
A'ja Wilson anchors the Las Vegas edge at 25.6 points and 9.6 rebounds per game, with Chelsea Gray running the offense at 7.4 assists. Washington counters with Sonia Citron at 17.0 points per game and Shakira Austin at 9.7 rebounds, but the Mystics do not have a scorer in Wilson's tier, which is the core reason the market leans Las Vegas by this margin.
The spread confirms the moneyline read. Polymarket lists Las Vegas at -5.5 (55c) and -6.5 (51c), pricing the pick'em point of the handicap near 6.5 points. Kalshi's ladder agrees: the Aces to win by over 4.5 trades at 59c and by over 7.5 at 46c, so the market's true spread lands around 6 points. The total sits in the low 160s, with the over 158.5 at 62c, the over 161.5 at 55c, and Polymarket's 163.5 line at 51c, so 162 to 163 is the number to beat. Player-prop pricing on Polymarket frames the stars: Wilson's points over/under is set at 23.5 (51c) and Jackie Young's at 15.5 (51c), both true coin-flips at the line.
The market resolves on July 22, 2026, when the game goes final. The moneyline pays the team that wins outright, the spread settles on the final margin against the listed handicap, and the total settles on combined points scored. Both Kalshi and Polymarket mark the contracts to $1 for the correct side and $0 for the other once the result is official.
The catalysts below anchor the read for July 22, 2026.
Track both sides through their hubs: the Las Vegas Aces page carries the franchise's full board, and the Washington Mystics hub holds the home side's schedule and futures. For the league-wide picture, the WNBA hub aggregates every game, team, and championship market, and the sports landing page spans the full cross-platform slate.
Resolves to the outcome of the Las Vegas Aces at Washington Mystics game on July 22, 2026. The moneyline pays the team that wins the game outright. The spread settles on the final margin of victory against the listed handicap, and the total settles on the combined points scored by both teams. Each contract pays $1 per share for the correct side and $0 for the other, marked final on Kalshi and Polymarket once the game result is official. If the game is postponed past the resolution window or canceled, the contracts void or roll to the rescheduled date per each platform's rules.
As of July 22, 2026, the Las Vegas Aces are the moneyline favorite at 69c on Kalshi and 70c on Polymarket, an implied win probability near 70%. The Washington Mystics sit at 32c on Kalshi and 31c on Polymarket.
The Las Vegas Aces are favored at a 70c cross-platform consensus, backed by an 18-7 record and an 11-2 road mark. The Washington Mystics are the 31c underdog at 13-12 overall.
The market sets Las Vegas at roughly a 6-point favorite, with Polymarket pricing the -6.5 handicap at 51c. The total sits in the low 160s, with the over 158.5 at 62c and Polymarket's 163.5 line at 51c on July 22, 2026.
The game trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi carries the deeper book at roughly $20K on the Aces moneyline, and the two platforms price the favorite within a cent of each other as of July 22, 2026.
The market resolves on July 22, 2026, when the game goes final. The moneyline pays the outright winner, and the spread and total settle on the final score, marked to $1 or $0 per share on each platform.