| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Liberty | -1.5 53%54% | O 177.5 52%49% | 56%55% | 56% Kalshi |
â–¶Fever | +1.5 47%46% | U 177.5 48%51% | 45%46% | 46% Polymarket |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶New York Liberty | -1.5 | O 177.5 | 56% Kalshi | |
â–¶Indiana Fever | +1.5 | U 177.5 | 46% Polymarket |
The market makes the New York Liberty a 54c to 55c road favorite over the Indiana Fever on July 18, 2026, and the price is a schedule call: Indiana is on its third game in three nights after Caitlin Clark's 45-point win over Seattle, while New York has been idle since July 12. The 15-10 Fever host the 13-11 Liberty at Gainbridge Fieldhouse; the live board above carries the current cross-platform prices.
The New York Liberty enter Saturday in Indianapolis as a 54c to 55c road favorite over the Indiana Fever, and the price is a bet on the schedule rather than the standings. Indiana (15-10) owns the better record and a 9-5 mark at Gainbridge Fieldhouse; New York (13-11) has lost three straight. The market still prices the Liberty near 55% because the Fever are playing their third game in three nights while New York has been off since July 12. Roughly $22K in volume trades on the pairing across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi prices New York at 54c and Polymarket at 55c, a 1c cross-platform gap that leaves no arbitrage. Indiana sits at 46c on both books. That is a coin flip tilted slightly toward the road team, and both platforms landing within a cent of each other says the pricing is settled, not contested.
The spread matches ESPN's posted number of New York -1.5. Both Kalshi and Polymarket price the Liberty to cover -1.5 at 52c, and Polymarket also lists New York -2.5 at 48c. Kalshi's margin ladder steps down evenly from there: New York by over 3.5 points at 46c, by over 6.5 at 35c, against Indiana by over 1.5 at 44c and by over 3.5 at 40c. The shape of that ladder describes a one-possession game in either direction.
The total pivots on 175.5, again matching the ESPN number. Kalshi prices over 174.5 at 54c and over 177.5 at 49c, while Polymarket has the 175.5 at 51c and the 172.5 at 56c. Indiana just played to 217 combined points in Friday's 110-107 win over Seattle, and the board's mid-50s pricing at the 174.5 rung keeps the number honest instead of chasing that result.
The line has not moved. Kalshi's New York contract opened the overnight snapshot window at 54c and sat at 54c into Saturday, with Polymarket flat at 55c, even though Caitlin Clark's 45-point night landed only hours earlier. The schedule spot was priced before the Friday result came in.
Indiana beat Seattle 110-107 on Friday, July 17 behind Caitlin Clark's 45 points on 11-18 shooting (6-10 from three, 17-19 at the line) with 10 assists and 4 steals in 29 minutes. Kelsey Mitchell added 30 points in 34 minutes. The Friday market had Indiana at 78c and the favorite cashed, but the win came at a price that carries into this one: it was the Fever's second game in two nights after a 75-88 home loss to Golden State on Thursday, Saturday makes three in three, and Aliyah Boston missed Friday with a right lower leg injury. ESPN's injury report lists a Saturday return date for Boston, and her availability is the swing variable in a frontcourt matchup with Jonquel Jones (9.3 rebounds per game).
New York arrives from the opposite direction. The Liberty have not played since a 93-91 loss at Toronto on July 12, their third straight defeat after drops to Dallas and Minnesota. Five days off is the longest break either team has had this month, and the market is paying for it: a 13-11 team with a 6-6 road record is priced above a 15-10 team with a 9-5 home mark. Breanna Stewart (20.4 points, 8.4 rebounds per game) and Jones give New York the two most productive frontcourt players on the floor if Boston sits, against an Indiana rotation that leaned on Mitchell for 34 minutes and Makayla Timpson for 32 on Friday.
The prop board leans entirely to the New York side. Polymarket lists Stewart's points line at 19.5 and 20.5, both 51c to the over, straddling her 20.4 season average. Sabrina Ionescu's points over 16.5 trades at 30c and Jones's rebounds over 9.5 at 28c, right against her 9.3 per game. No Indiana props are listed on this board, so there is no Clark points line to trade the day after a 45-point game; Kelsey Mitchell's 22.6 points per game lead the Fever season-long.
The market resolves on the outcome of the New York Liberty at Indiana Fever game on Saturday evening, July 18, 2026 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The moneyline pays the winning team, spread contracts settle on the final margin against the posted line, and totals settle on combined points against each posted number. Both platforms settle when the game goes final on the scheduled date; a postponement past the resolution window resolves per each platform's game-postponement rules.
Season-long stakes frame the schedule spot. Track the Fever playoff market and the Liberty playoff market for how a July result moves the seeding race, plus the Liberty season-win total for New York's rebound path from three straight losses. Clark's 45-point night bears directly on the WNBA MVP board, and both teams trade on the WNBA championship market. Full team pages live at the Indiana Fever hub and New York Liberty hub, with the full slate at the WNBA hub.
The market resolves on the outcome of the New York Liberty at Indiana Fever game scheduled for Saturday evening, July 18, 2026 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The moneyline pays the team that wins the game, spread contracts settle on the final margin against the posted line (New York -1.5), and totals settle on combined points scored against each posted number around 175.5. Both Kalshi and Polymarket settle when the game goes final on the scheduled date. If the game is postponed past the resolution window or voided, contracts resolve per each platform's game-postponement rules.
New York is 54c on Kalshi and 55c on Polymarket, with Indiana at 46c on both books as of the morning of July 18, 2026. The consensus implies roughly a 55% Liberty win probability.
New York, despite the road site and a 13-11 record against Indiana's 15-10. The market is pricing the Fever's third game in three nights against five days of Liberty rest.
New York -1.5 trades at 52c on both Kalshi and Polymarket, and the total centers on 175.5, with Kalshi's over 174.5 at 54c and Polymarket's 175.5 at 51c on July 18, 2026.
Kalshi and Polymarket both list the moneyline. Kalshi carries the spread and total ladders, and Polymarket lists player props for Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, and Jonquel Jones.
Clark played 29 minutes and scored 45 points on Friday, July 17 and carries no injury designation. Aliyah Boston is the open question after missing Friday with a right lower leg injury.
When the game goes final on Saturday evening, July 18, 2026 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. The moneyline settles on the winner; spread and total contracts settle on the final score.