| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Mercury | +1.5 46%47% | O 165.5 81% | 45%45% | 45% Kalshi |
â–¶Sparks | -1.5 54%53% | U 165.5 19% | 57%56% | 57% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Phoenix Mercury | +1.5 | O 165.5 | 45% Kalshi | |
â–¶Los Angeles Sparks | -1.5 | U 165.5 | 57% Kalshi |
The Los Angeles Sparks are the 56c home favorite against the Phoenix Mercury on July 22, 2026, a near coin-flip that Kalshi (57c) and Polymarket (56c) price within a single cent. Los Angeles (10-15) hosts Phoenix (9-18) at crypto.com Arena with both teams under .500, and the live board above tracks the moneyline, the Sparks -1.5 spread, and the roughly 177.5-point total across both books.
The Los Angeles Sparks are the 56c home favorite against the Phoenix Mercury, and it is close to a true coin-flip. Kalshi has the Sparks at 57c and Polymarket at 56c, with Phoenix priced at 45c and 44c on the same books. Two sub-.500 teams meeting at crypto.com Arena on July 22, 2026 produces exactly the kind of tight number the board shows, and the live widget above carries the current moneyline, spread, and total.
Los Angeles enters at 10-15 (5-7 at home), while Phoenix arrives at 9-18 (5-9 on the road). The two-cent gap on the moneyline reflects that thin edge plus home court: the Sparks carry a 56.5c consensus, an implied 56% win probability, against 44.5c for the Mercury. Nneka Ogwumike leads Los Angeles at 17.3 points and 9.0 rebounds per game, with Erica Wheeler running the offense at 5.2 assists. Phoenix counters with the higher-scoring roster on paper, Kahleah Copper at 20.5 points per game and Alyssa Thomas filling the box score at 14.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 8.1 assists. The Sparks hub and Mercury hub carry each team's full market history.
The spread confirms the coin-flip read. Los Angeles is laid at 1.5 points, priced at 52c on Kalshi and 53c on Polymarket, a virtual pick'em rather than a conviction number. Kalshi's alt-spread ladder puts the Sparks over 3.5 points at 45c and Phoenix over 3.5 points at 39c, so the market sees a single-possession game either way. The match total sits around 177.5 points, with Over 177.5 pricing 53c on both books and Polymarket's O/U 178.5 at 51c. That is a moderately high number that leans on Copper and Ogwumike carrying the scoring load.
The moneyline has held. The Sparks sat at 57c on Kalshi across the overnight snapshot window into July 22, 2026, and Phoenix stayed pinned at 44c to 45c, with the spread and total each drifting a single cent. The more useful signal is agreement: Kalshi and Polymarket are within 1c on the moneyline, within 1c on the spread, and level on the Over. There is no cross-platform value gap to exploit here, which is itself the read on an efficient two-book market carrying about $115K in combined volume.
The market resolves when the game goes final at crypto.com Arena on July 22, 2026. The moneyline pays the team that wins outright, the Sparks -1.5 spread settles on the final margin, and the total settles on the combined score. See the WNBA market hub for the rest of the July 22 slate.
Compare this game with the rest of the July 22 board, including Connecticut Sun vs Indiana Fever and Chicago Sky vs New York Liberty. Track both clubs long term at the Los Angeles Sparks hub and Phoenix Mercury hub, or browse the full WNBA market hub.
This market resolves to the team that wins the game at crypto.com Arena on July 22, 2026. The moneyline pays $1 per share on the winning side and $0 on the loser, settled when Kalshi and Polymarket mark the game final. The Sparks -1.5 spread settles on the final margin, and the match total settles on the combined points scored by both teams. If the game is postponed past its scheduled date or canceled, each platform voids or defers the contracts under its own game-postponement rules.
As of July 22, 2026, the Los Angeles Sparks are the 56c favorite (57c Kalshi, 56c Polymarket) and the Phoenix Mercury sit at 44c (45c Kalshi, 44c Polymarket), an implied 56% to 44% edge for Los Angeles.
The Los Angeles Sparks are the home favorite at roughly 56c, about a 56% implied win probability, on July 22, 2026. Their 10-15 record and home court at crypto.com Arena edge Phoenix's 9-18.
Kalshi and Polymarket both list the moneyline, and Kalshi carries the fuller spread and total ladders. Prices sat within 1c across the two books on July 22, 2026.
The Sparks are 1.5-point favorites, priced near a pick'em at 52c to 53c, and the match total sits around 177.5 points with Over 177.5 at 53c as of July 22, 2026.
It settles when the game goes final at crypto.com Arena on July 22, 2026. The moneyline pays the winning team, while the spread and total settle on the final combined score.
Watch Alyssa Thomas's playmaking (8.1 APG) for Phoenix and whether the Over 177.5 (53c) draws late money, since the total ladder has seen the most volume on the July 22, 2026 board.