Portland Fire vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction Market Odds, July 28, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶PortlandFire | +10.5 46% | O 179.5 48% | 17% | 17% Polymarket |
â–¶Aces | -10.5 54% | U 179.5 52% | 85%84% | 85% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶PortlandFire | +10.5 | O 179.5 | 17% Polymarket | |
â–¶Las Vegas Aces | -10.5 | U 179.5 | 85% Kalshi |
The Las Vegas Aces are the 84.5c favorite (85c on Kalshi, 84c on Polymarket) at home over the Portland Fire, whose moneyline trades at 17c on Polymarket only, when the two meet at Michelob ULTRA Arena on July 28, 2026. The Aces (18-8) lean on A'ja Wilson's 26.1 points and 9.5 rebounds per game against the expansion Fire (11-16), who are in their inaugural WNBA season. The board spans roughly $25K in volume across two platforms, and the live board above carries the current moneyline, spread, and total.
Las Vegas is the chalk in every phase of this board. The Aces (18-8) are the 84.5c moneyline favorite over the Portland Fire (11-16), the market prices Las Vegas roughly 11 points clear on the spread, and the total sits near 177. Portland arrives as a 2026 expansion franchise in its first WNBA season, and the number reflects the talent gap: A'ja Wilson's 26.1 points per game anchor a Vegas side the market gives an implied 84% to 85% chance of winning.
Portland Fire vs Las Vegas Aces Records and Form
The Aces enter at 18-8 overall, including 11-3 on the road and 7-5 at Michelob ULTRA Arena, where this game tips July 28, 2026. A'ja Wilson leads the team at 26.1 points and 9.5 rebounds per game, with Chelsea Gray running the offense at 7.3 assists per game. Portland sits at 11-16 in the franchise's inaugural season, 6-7 at home and 5-9 on the road. Carla Leite paces the Fire at 15.3 points and 6.0 assists per game, and Emily Engstler leads the expansion roster at 5.3 rebounds per game. The 7.5-game separation in the standings is the structural gap the moneyline is pricing.
Portland Fire vs Las Vegas Aces Moneyline, Spread, and Total
On the moneyline, Las Vegas is 85c on Kalshi and 84c on Polymarket, a 1c cross-platform gap that leaves no meaningful edge between the books on the favorite. The Portland Fire side is the note: it trades at 17c on Polymarket only, because Kalshi does not list a Fire moneyline contract, so the 17c underdog price has no second book to check it against. The spread market centers on Las Vegas laying between 10.5 and 12.5 points, with Kalshi's Las Vegas -10.5 at 52c, close to a coin flip, and Polymarket's Las Vegas -12.5 at 46c. The total is priced in the mid-170s, with Kalshi's Over 176.5 at 57c and Polymarket's Over 175.5 at 58c and Over 177.5 at 53c.
Portland Fire vs Las Vegas Aces Matchup and Line Movement
The matchup is A'ja Wilson (26.1 points, 9.5 rebounds per game) and the Aces' core against an expansion roster that leans on guard Carla Leite (15.3 points, 6.0 assists per game). Vegas's form kept the moneyline pinned: the Aces held at 85c on Kalshi and the Fire held at 17c on Polymarket across the tracked snapshot window, with no drift on the favorite. The one move came on the spread, where Kalshi's Las Vegas -10.5 slid from 55c to 52c, tightening toward a true coin flip on that hook and signaling a market comfortable with double digits but cautious past 11.
When the Portland Fire vs Las Vegas Aces Market Resolves
The market resolves on the outcome of the game played July 28, 2026 at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas. The moneyline pays the team that wins the game, the spread settles on the final margin (Las Vegas must win by more than the listed number to cover), and the total settles over or under based on the combined final score. Contracts settle on Kalshi and Polymarket once the game goes final. If the game is postponed or canceled, contracts resolve per each platform's tie and void rules.
Key Portland Fire vs Las Vegas Aces Factors
A'ja Wilson's scoring load, at 26.1 points and 9.5 rebounds per game, is the single biggest driver of the Aces' 85c price.
The Polymarket-only Fire moneyline means the 17c underdog price has no Kalshi contract to cross-check, so the implied 15% to 16% is a single-book read.
The spread hook matters: Kalshi's Las Vegas -10.5 at 52c slid from 55c, marking the market's indifference point near 10.5 to 11 points.
Expansion-roster depth is thin: Portland (11-16) is in its first WNBA season and leans on Carla Leite (15.3 points, 6.0 assists per game).
The total near 177, with Kalshi's Over 176.5 at 57c and Polymarket's Over 175.5 at 58c, frames a mid-170s number.
Home-court context favors Vegas: the Aces are 7-5 at Michelob ULTRA Arena and 11-3 on the road inside an 18-8 overall profile.
Related WNBA Markets
The WNBA prediction markets hub tracks every team and game across Kalshi and Polymarket. The Las Vegas Aces market page and the Portland Fire market page carry each side's schedule and futures, and the full sports prediction markets board spans every league covered.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to the team that wins the WNBA game played July 28, 2026 at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas. The moneyline pays the winning team; the spread settles on the final margin, with Las Vegas needing to win by more than the listed number to cover; and the total resolves over or under against the combined final score. Contracts settle on Kalshi and Polymarket once the game is final. If the game is postponed past the resolution window or canceled, contracts resolve per each platform's tie and void rules.
Key Factors
- A'ja Wilson's scoring load (26.1 points, 9.5 rebounds per game) drives the Aces' 85c moneyline price
- Portland Fire moneyline is Polymarket-only at 17c, with no Kalshi contract to cross-check the 15% to 16% implied
- Spread hook: Kalshi Las Vegas -10.5 at 52c slid from 55c, the market's indifference point near 10.5 to 11 points
- Expansion-roster depth: Portland (11-16) leans on Carla Leite (15.3 points, 6.0 assists per game) in its first WNBA season
- Total priced near 177 (Kalshi Over 176.5 at 57c, Polymarket Over 175.5 at 58c)
- Aces home-court context: 7-5 at Michelob ULTRA Arena, 11-3 on the road, 18-8 overall
What are the Portland Fire vs Las Vegas Aces odds on July 28, 2026?
The Las Vegas Aces are the moneyline favorite at 85c on Kalshi and 84c on Polymarket, an 84.5c cross-platform average. The Portland Fire trade at 17c on Polymarket only.
Who is favored in Portland Fire vs Las Vegas Aces?
Las Vegas is favored with an implied win probability near 84% to 85%. The Aces are 18-8 against the 11-16 expansion Fire and are laying roughly 11 points on the spread on July 28, 2026.
What is the spread and total for Portland Fire vs Las Vegas Aces?
The market centers on Las Vegas laying 10.5 to 12.5 points, with Kalshi's Las Vegas -10.5 at 52c and Polymarket's -12.5 at 46c. The total sits near 177, with Kalshi's Over 176.5 at 57c on July 28, 2026.
Where can I trade the Portland Fire vs Las Vegas Aces market?
The game trades on Kalshi and Polymarket. The Aces moneyline is on both books, while the Portland Fire moneyline is listed on Polymarket only, so the 17c underdog price is a single-book quote.
How did the Portland Fire vs Las Vegas Aces line move before July 28, 2026?
The moneyline held firm, with the Aces steady at 85c on Kalshi and the Fire at 17c on Polymarket. The lone move was on the spread, where Kalshi's Las Vegas -10.5 slid from 55c to 52c.