| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶PortlandFire | +5.5 45% | O 163.5 49%49% | 32% | 32% Polymarket |
â–¶Mystics | -5.5 55% | U 163.5 51%51% | 70%69% | 70% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶PortlandFire | +5.5 | O 163.5 | 32% Polymarket | |
â–¶Washington Mystics | -5.5 | U 163.5 | 70% Kalshi |
The Washington Mystics are the 69.5c home favorite (70c Kalshi, 69c Polymarket) over the Portland Fire at 32c on July 16, 2026, an implied edge near 70% to 30%. Washington sits 12-10 overall and 5-5 at home, while the Fire arrive 10-14 and 4-8 on the road in their inaugural 2026 WNBA expansion season. The two books agree within 1c on the favorite, the market spread is Washington -5.5, and the total is pinned at 163.5. The live board above carries the current moneyline, spread, and total prices.
Washington enters July 16, 2026 as the 69.5c home favorite against the Portland Fire, with Kalshi (70c) and Polymarket (69c) within a penny of each other on the moneyline. The Mystics sit 12-10 overall and 5-5 at home, while the Fire arrive 10-14 and 4-8 on the road in their inaugural 2026 WNBA expansion season. The board carries roughly $73K in volume across two platforms, spanning a moneyline, a spread ladder, and a total. The live board above shows current prices; the read below covers what the market is pricing.
Washington is priced at 69.5c on the moneyline, an implied win probability near 70%, while the Portland Fire trade at 32c on Polymarket (the Kalshi price implies roughly 30c for the Fire off the Mystics' 70c side). That 2c gap on the underdog is the only cross-platform disagreement on the moneyline, as the favorite side agrees within 1c. Washington's Kalshi moneyline is the anchor market, holding about $41.6K in volume.
The pricing tracks the records. Washington is 5-5 at home and led by rookie guard Sonia Citron at 17.8 points per game, with Kiki Iriafen pulling 9.7 rebounds and Georgia Amoore distributing 3.5 assists. Portland is 4-8 on the road, with rookie guard Carla Leite carrying the offense at 15.3 points and 5.8 assists per game and Emily Engstler leading the Fire on the glass at 5.5 rebounds. The Mystics' home mark and deeper young core are the case for the 70% price. Washington's recent slate is visible on its game against the Toronto Tempo.
Line movement supports the favorite. Washington's Kalshi moneyline opened at 68c in the latest snapshot window and firmed to 70c, while the Fire eased from 33c to 32c on Polymarket. That is a 2c move toward the home side, not a flat line.
The market spread is Washington -5.5, matching the DraftKings consensus. On Polymarket, Washington -5.5 trades at 55c and -4.5 at 57c. Kalshi's ladder puts "Washington wins by over 3.5" at 61c and "over 6.5" at 48c, so the coin-flip crossover sits just beyond 5.5 points, consistent with the -5.5 number. A Portland cover is live on the board at 30c for the Fire to win by over 1.5, reflecting the Mystics' clear favorite status.
The total is set at 163.5, trading at 48c on both Kalshi and Polymarket, a near-even price. Over 160.5 sits at 56c and Over 166.5 at about 42c, which pins the projected total in the 163 to 164 range. Among the Polymarket player props, Carla Leite's points line at 14.5 is the closest to a coin flip at 46c, reflecting how central the Portland rookie is to the Fire's scoring.
The market resolves on the final score of the game on July 16, 2026 in Washington. The moneyline pays the team that wins outright, the spread settles on the final margin (Washington must win by 6 or more to cover -5.5), and the total settles Over or Under 163.5 combined points. Contracts pay $1 per winning share and $0 otherwise, settled on Kalshi and Polymarket once the game is final. A postponement past the resolution date follows each platform's void rules.
Compare this board with Washington's July 14 game against the Toronto Tempo and Portland's meeting with the Connecticut Sun, or track season-long value on the ESPY Best WNBA Player market. Full cross-platform coverage lives on the basketball hub.
Resolves on the final score of the Portland Fire at Washington Mystics game on July 16, 2026 in Washington. The moneyline pays the team that wins the game outright. The spread settles on the final margin, with Washington needing to win by 6 or more points to cover -5.5 and Portland covering with a win or a loss by 5 or fewer. The total settles Over or Under 163.5 combined points. Each contract pays $1 per winning share and $0 otherwise, settled on Kalshi and Polymarket once the game goes final. If the game is postponed past the resolution date or canceled, contracts void per each platform's rules.
As of July 16, 2026, the Washington Mystics are the 69.5c moneyline favorite (70c on Kalshi, 69c on Polymarket) and the Portland Fire trade at 32c, an implied edge near 70% to 30% for Washington.
The Washington Mystics are favored at 69.5c, roughly a 70% implied win probability, backed by a 12-10 record and a 5-5 home mark against Portland's 10-14 (4-8 road) expansion start.
The market spread is Washington -5.5 (55c on Polymarket) and the total is set at 163.5, trading at 48c on both Kalshi and Polymarket, a near-even price as of July 16, 2026.
The game trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket, spanning the moneyline, a spread ladder, the total, and Polymarket player props including Carla Leite points at 46c on the O/U 14.5 line.
Watch the moneyline direction (Washington firmed from 68c to 70c on Kalshi), Sonia Citron's scoring for the Mystics, and Carla Leite's usage for the expansion Fire, with the total a coin flip at 163.5 heading into July 16, 2026.