| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Tempo | +13.5 51%52% | O 185.5 54%55% | 14%14% | 14% Kalshi |
â–¶Dream | -13.5 49%48% | U 185.5 46%45% | 88%87% | 88% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Toronto Tempo | +13.5 | O 185.5 | 14% Kalshi | |
â–¶Atlanta Dream | -13.5 | U 185.5 | 88% Kalshi |
Atlanta is the 87.5c moneyline favorite (88c Kalshi, 87c Polymarket) over Toronto at 14c, the widest price on the WNBA slate for August 10, 2026. The Dream are 19-12 and 11-5 at home; the expansion Tempo are 10-21, 4-10 on the road, and carrying an eight-game losing streak into a season series they trail 0-3 by an average of 17.0 points. The spread sits at Atlanta -13.5 (49c) with a 185.5 total. The live board above carries current cross-platform prices.
Atlanta opens as the 87.5c moneyline favorite (88c on Kalshi, 87c on Polymarket) against Toronto at 14c on both books, the widest two-way price on the WNBA board for August 10, 2026. An 87.5c line is near the practical ceiling for a WNBA regular-season game, and the reason is structural rather than situational: Toronto is playing its inaugural season as a 2026 expansion franchise, and the market has spent three meetings learning what that costs.
Atlanta enters at 19-12, third in the Eastern Conference and a half game behind Indiana (20-12), with an 11-5 home record at Gateway Center Arena in College Park. The Dream are 4-2 across their last six, with wins over Chicago (93-91), Dallas (82-81), Seattle (98-89) and Phoenix (96-82) around losses to Las Vegas (87-109) and Washington (74-79). Allisha Gray leads the team at 19.1 points per game, Angel Reese anchors the glass at 11.8 rebounds and 15.7 points, and Jordin Canada distributes at 7.5 assists.
Toronto is 10-21, sixth in the East, 4-10 on the road, and riding an eight-game losing streak that includes two losses to Golden State (79-96 and 81-92) and a 83-97 defeat at Portland in the Tempo's most recent outing. Marina Mabrey carries the offense at 20.2 points per game, Nyara Sabally leads the team at 4.9 rebounds, and Julie Allemand runs the second-year-roster-in-year-one experiment at 5.9 assists. The season series is the cleanest input available: Atlanta is 3-0 and has won by 25 (102-77), 7 (94-87) and 19 (111-92), an average margin of 17.0 points across three games. That average sits almost exactly on the number the spread market is pricing.
The spread ladder is unusually wide here, which is what a lopsided moneyline forces. Kalshi is offering Atlanta alternates from -1.5 at 85c all the way out to -22.5 at 23c, with the primary -13.5 at 49c (48c on Polymarket, which lists its own -12.5 at 53c). The intermediate rungs price out cleanly: -4.5 at 78c, -7.5 at 69c, -10.5 at 57c, -16.5 at 40c, -19.5 at 30c. Read together, the ladder implies roughly a 49% chance Atlanta covers a two-possession-plus margin and a 30% chance the game reaches a 20-point gap, which matches a series that has already produced margins of 25 and 19. The Toronto side of the ladder is the tell on how far the market has moved: Toronto -1.5 trades at 13c, and Toronto -9.5 at 4c.
The total is set at 185.5 with the over at 54.5c (54c Kalshi, 55c Polymarket). The alternate ladder runs 170.5 at 86c down to 194.5 at 31c, and the first-half total of 90.5 sits at 55c, implying the market expects a slightly back-loaded scoring game. Overnight movement has been one-directional: Atlanta climbed from 85c to 88c on Kalshi, Toronto slid from 16c to 14c on both platforms, and the over on 185.5 jumped from 49c to 54c. DraftKings moved the same way, from Atlanta -11.5 and a 183.5 total at open to -13.5 and 186.5, with the moneyline going from -675 to -800. Nothing about this board is fighting itself.
Cross-platform, the two books are within a cent on every core line, so there is no arbitrage here, only a liquidity difference. The Atlanta moneyline contract has traded roughly $70.4K lifetime on Kalshi against about $6.5K on Polymarket, so Kalshi is the price-setting venue and Polymarket is the follower. Polymarket carries the player-prop layer that Kalshi does not: Angel Reese points over/under 14.5 at 48c and rebounds over/under 11.5 at 28c, Allisha Gray points over/under 17.5 at 48c, Jordin Canada assists over/under 7.5 at 49c, Rhyne Howard points over/under 17.5 at 32c, and on the Toronto side Marina Mabrey points over/under 17.5 at 48c and Nyara Sabally points over/under 14.5 at 48c. The Reese rebounding line is the one prop that connects directly to the spread, because Atlanta's three wins in this series were built on second-chance volume.
The market resolves on the final score of the game at Gateway Center Arena in College Park, Georgia, scheduled for 8:00 PM ET on August 10, 2026. The moneyline pays $1 per share to the team that wins; there are no draws in the WNBA, so overtime settles the contract. The spread contracts settle against the final margin (Atlanta -13.5 pays if Atlanta wins by 14 or more), and the total settles against combined points including overtime. Both Kalshi and Polymarket settle from the official league box score, typically within an hour of the final buzzer.
Season series margin: Atlanta is 3-0 with an average winning margin of 17.0 points, which sits directly on the -13.5 to -16.5 rungs of the spread ladder.
Toronto's eight-game losing streak: the Tempo have not won since before the July 29 loss to Minnesota, and the road split (4-10) is the worse half of a 10-21 season.
Atlanta's playoff seeding stake: at 19-12 the Dream sit a half game behind Indiana and level with Washington, so seeding pressure argues against resting the top of the rotation.
Angel Reese on the glass: 11.8 rebounds per game is the single input most tied to the cover, and the Polymarket rebounds over/under 11.5 at 28c prices the market's skepticism about a repeat.
Total drifting up: the over on 185.5 moved from 49c to 54c overnight and DraftKings moved its number from 183.5 to 186.5, a consistent two-venue signal.
Liquidity concentration: Kalshi holds roughly $70.4K of lifetime volume on the Atlanta contract versus $6.5K on Polymarket, so Kalshi leads and Polymarket lags on any late move.
The July 17 meeting in Toronto is the most useful comparison on the board: Atlanta won 111-92 as the road favorite, the third straight double-digit-or-better result in the series. Atlanta's most recent game against Washington is the counterweight, a 74-79 loss that cost the Dream ground in the East. The other game on the August 10, 2026 slate is Chicago at Seattle, a near-pick-em that sits at the opposite end of the pricing spectrum from this one. Full league coverage, including every alternate spread and total across both platforms, lives on the WNBA prediction market hub.
Resolves on the final score of Toronto Tempo at Atlanta Dream, played at Gateway Center Arena in College Park, Georgia, with tipoff scheduled for 8:00 PM ET on August 10, 2026. The moneyline contract pays $1 per share to the team that wins the game; the WNBA has no draws, so an overtime result settles the market normally. Spread contracts settle against the final margin of victory (Atlanta -13.5 pays if Atlanta wins by 14 or more points) and total contracts settle against combined points scored including any overtime. Both Kalshi and Polymarket settle from the official WNBA box score, typically within an hour of the final buzzer. If the game is postponed and replayed on a later date, both platforms settle on the completed game; if the game is canceled outright and not replayed, contracts void and refund at cost.
As of August 10, 2026, Atlanta Dream trade at 87.5c on the moneyline (88c on Kalshi, 87c on Polymarket) and Toronto Tempo at 14c on both platforms. The spread is Atlanta -13.5 at 49c and the total is 185.5 with the over at 54.5c.
Atlanta is favored, with 87.5c implying about an 87% chance of winning. Toronto at 14c implies roughly a 14% chance. Atlanta is 19-12 and 11-5 at home; Toronto is 10-21 and 4-10 on the road in its inaugural expansion season.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket list the game. Kalshi carries the deeper book with roughly $70.4K of lifetime volume on the Atlanta moneyline contract against about $6.5K on Polymarket, and Kalshi offers the wider alternate spread ladder from -1.5 to -22.5. Polymarket carries the player props.
Atlanta is -13.5 at 49c on Kalshi and 48c on Polymarket, which lists its own -12.5 at 53c. The total is 185.5 with the over at 54c on Kalshi and 55c on Polymarket. Alternates run from Atlanta -1.5 at 85c out to -22.5 at 23c.
It resolves when the game goes final at Gateway Center Arena in College Park, Georgia, with tipoff at 8:00 PM ET on August 10, 2026. Both platforms settle from the official WNBA box score, typically within an hour of the final buzzer.
Watch whether the total keeps climbing after moving from 49c to 54c overnight, and whether Atlanta pushes past 88c on Kalshi. Angel Reese rebounding volume is the input most tied to the -13.5 cover, given Atlanta won the three prior meetings by 25, 7 and 19 points.