| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Tempo | +6.5 — | O 176.5 — | 0%0% | — |
Seattle | -6.5 — | U 176.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Tempo | +6.5 — | O 176.5 — | 0%0% | — |
Seattle | -6.5 — | U 176.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
Seattle is 7-31 and Toronto is 11-26, and the Storm are still the 67.5c favorite (68c Kalshi, 67c Polymarket) because the Tempo arrive with Marina Mabrey, Brittney Sykes, Aneesah Morrow, Julie Allemand, and Maria Conde all listed out. Toronto won the first two meetings in Toronto by 13 and 21 points with that roster intact. The board carries roughly $39.5K in lifetime volume across both platforms, and the live board above has current prices for the moneyline, the full spread ladder, and the 177.5 total.
Seattle is 7-31 and Toronto is 11-26, and Seattle is the favorite anyway. The Storm sit last in the Western Conference, 23.5 games back, and the Tempo already swept the first two meetings of the season series in Toronto by 13 and 21 points. The board prices Seattle at 67.5c on a cross-platform average anyway (68c Kalshi, 67c Polymarket as of the evening of August 25, 2026), and the reason is availability rather than form. Toronto arrives at Climate Pledge Arena with five rostered players listed out. Tip is 10:00 PM ET on August 26, 2026, and the game carries roughly $39.5K in lifetime volume across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Toronto's injury ledger is the whole story. ESPN lists Marina Mabrey (hip), Brittney Sykes (foot), Aneesah Morrow (knee), Julie Allemand (head), and Maria Conde (calf) as out, which removes most of the rotation that won both earlier meetings. Kiki Rice (12.0 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists per game) inherits primary creation duty, and Laura Juskaite (10.1 points, 4.1 rebounds) is the team's leading scorer on the season. Polymarket prices Rice's points line at over/under 16.5 at 47c, about four and a half points above her season average, which is the cleanest single statement of how much usage the board expects her to absorb.
Seattle's ledger is two names long. Natisha Hiedeman is out with a shoulder injury and Flau'jae Johnson is day-to-day with an ankle. Dominique Malonga (17.0 points, 8.9 rebounds, 1.5 blocks per game) is the reason the Storm price better at home than a 7-31 record implies, and Jade Melbourne leads the team at 3.8 assists per game. Seattle has lost three straight, most recently 92-70 at Dallas on August 23.
Both teams arrive 1-4 in their last five. Toronto beat Portland 82-79 on August 21 and lost 88-78 at Las Vegas on August 23. Seattle's only win in that stretch was 97-88 over Chicago on August 10. The head-to-head record favors Toronto 2-0, with an 86-73 win on May 13 and a 93-72 win on May 30, but both of those were in Toronto and both were played with the roster that is now unavailable. This is the third and final regular-season meeting and the first one in Seattle, where the Storm are 5-13 and the Tempo are 4-13 on the road.
The board is more confident in Seattle than the models are. ESPN's matchup predictor gives the Storm 62.8% and the Tempo 37.2%. The cross-platform average of 67.5c sits 4.7 points above that projection, which is the gap a Toronto backer is being paid to take.
Kalshi's deepest spread rung is Seattle -3.5 at 56c, carrying $5.9K in lifetime volume, easily the most-traded alternate line on the board. Polymarket does not list that rung and instead quotes Seattle -4.5 at 54c and Seattle -5.5 at 49c. Interpolating Polymarket's ladder puts Seattle -3.5 near 59c there, so Kalshi is the cheaper of the two venues for the same side of the same number. That is a difference in where each book chose to hang its rungs and how deep each book is, not a costless edge: the Kalshi rung trades against a thin order book and the Polymarket legs on this board have moved barely $1.1K between them.
The sportsbook market moved further on Seattle than ours has. DraftKings opened this game at Seattle -3.5 and -166 on the moneyline and now shows Seattle -5.5 and -225, with Toronto drifting from +140 to +185. A -225 price implies 69.2% before the book's margin is stripped out, so the 67.5c cross-platform average is the softer number on Seattle right now.
The total agrees across all three sources. DraftKings sits at 177.5. Kalshi trades Over 176.5 at 51c and Over 179.5 at 42c, and Polymarket quotes over/under 177.5 at 49c and 178.5 at 46c, so the two prediction-market ladders line up within a point of the book. Worth noting against the season series: the first two meetings finished 159 and 165 combined points, both comfortably under this number. The market is pricing a looser game than either of those, which is what a five-man absence on one side usually produces.
Line movement on this board is limited by how much history it holds. Across the roughly two hours of snapshots the board carries, the moneyline did not move: Kalshi's Seattle contract printed 68c at the first capture and 68c at the last, Toronto printed 33c at both ends, and Polymarket's Toronto contract held 34c across all nine of its captures. The spread ladder ticked a cent toward Seattle, with Seattle -3.5 going 55c to 56c and Seattle -6.5 going 46c to 47c, while the total ladder softened in the other direction: Kalshi's Over 173.5 fell from 61c to 58c and Over 179.5 from 44c to 42c. The board holds no history before that window, so the -3.5 to -5.5 sportsbook move happened earlier than our first snapshot and is not visible in this series.
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game at Climate Pledge Arena on August 26, 2026, scheduled for 10:00 PM ET and carried nationally on USA Network with TSN in Canada. Each winning contract pays $1 per share and the losing side pays $0. Spread contracts settle against the final margin, so Seattle -3.5 pays only if the Storm win by four or more, and total contracts settle against the combined final score, so Over 176.5 pays only if the two teams score 177 or more. Overtime counts toward the final score on every one of these markets. Both Kalshi and Polymarket settle once the game is official and the league posts a final box score, typically within hours of the buzzer. A postponement moves settlement to the rescheduled date, and a game that is canceled outright voids per each platform's published rules.
Toronto availability: Mabrey, Sykes, Morrow, Allemand, and Conde are all listed out, and any one of them being upgraded reprices the 67.5c Seattle number immediately.
Kiki Rice usage: her points line sits at over/under 16.5 on Polymarket against a 12.0 season average, so the prop is the direct read on whether the market expects a 30-minute, 20-shot night.
Dominique Malonga against a short frontcourt: 17.0 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per game against a Toronto interior missing Morrow is the matchup the spread is built on.
The spread rung gap: Kalshi lists Seattle -3.5 at 56c while Polymarket's ladder implies roughly 59c for the same number, the widest same-side pricing difference on the board.
Season-series precedent: Toronto won 86-73 and 93-72 with a healthy roster, and a competitive first quarter is the fastest way for the Toronto contract to move off 33c.
Total direction: the first two meetings combined for 159 and 165 points against a 177.5 line, and the Kalshi ladder already drifted a few cents toward the under during the snapshot window.
Both season-long boards frame this game better than the standings do. The Seattle Storm win total market and the Toronto Tempo win total market are the two positions this result moves directly, since neither team has anything else left to play for. Toronto's playoff market prices what 13.5 games back in the Eastern Conference is worth with the calendar this short. For the contenders, the 2026 WNBA champion board carries the conference favorites, and the Valkyries at Sun game is the other WNBA board trading on August 26. The full slate of cross-platform WNBA prices lives on the WNBA hub.
Resolves to the team that wins the game at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle on August 26, 2026, scheduled for 10:00 PM ET. Moneyline contracts pay $1 per share for the winning team and $0 for the loser. Spread contracts settle against the final margin, so Seattle -3.5 pays only if the Storm win by four or more points, and total contracts settle against the combined final score, so Over 176.5 pays only if the teams score 177 or more. Overtime points count toward the final score on every market on this board. Kalshi and Polymarket both settle once the WNBA posts an official final box score, typically within hours of the final buzzer. If the game is postponed, settlement moves to the rescheduled date; if it is canceled outright, contracts void under each platform's published rules.
As of the evening of August 25, 2026, Seattle is the favorite at 68c on Kalshi and 67c on Polymarket, a 67.5c cross-platform average, with Toronto at 33c and 34c respectively. The live board above carries the current prices.
Seattle is favored despite a 7-31 record. The 67.5c average implies about a 67% win probability, and the spread market sits between Seattle -3.5 on Kalshi at 56c and Seattle -5.5 on Polymarket at 49c.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket list this game. Kalshi carries almost all the depth, roughly $38.6K of the $39.5K in lifetime volume, including a $30.0K moneyline, a ten-rung spread ladder, and totals from 164.5 to 188.5. Polymarket has moved about $1.1K.
The game tips at 10:00 PM ET on August 26, 2026 at Climate Pledge Arena, and both platforms settle once the WNBA posts an official final box score, usually within hours of the final buzzer.
Toronto's injury report is the single biggest price mover, with five players listed out as of August 25, 2026. Watch also whether the total holds at 177.5, given the first two meetings finished at 159 and 165 combined points.