Lebanon Prediction Markets & 2026 National Team Odds
Live Lebanon national team odds, AFC qualifying outcomes, and tournament advancement markets tracked across the prediction markets covered by Prediction Genius.
Lebanon, the national team nicknamed the Cedars, is a lower-volume but steadily traded side in international soccer prediction markets, a function of an AFC nation that competes on the second tier of Asian qualifying. Across a handful of active contracts, the markets that draw the most interest track qualification outcomes and tournament advancement rather than outright trophy odds, and the board consistently slots Lebanon as a longshot in any group that includes top-tier Asian sides. Ranked 108th in the world as of April 2026 and managed by Madjid Bougherra, the team's durable price driver is the structural gap between its talent pool and the AFC's qualification giants. The live odds for every contract sit on the board above; the analysis below covers what those numbers mean.
Lebanon 2026 National Team Odds
Lebanon is priced as a longshot across almost every international market it appears in, and that read is structural rather than circumstantial. The Cedars sit 108th in the FIFA world ranking as of April 2026, a tier that places them well behind the AFC's automatic-qualification contenders. Prediction markets translate that ranking gap directly: when Lebanon shares a qualifying group with sides like Iran, Qatar, or South Korea, the board treats advancement as the value question, not the trophy. The durable competitive set that shapes Lebanon's pricing is the cluster of mid-table Asian nations (Palestine, Syria, Jordan, Oman) it actually races for second and third spots against. What moves the price is roster availability and the draw, not name recognition, which keeps spreads wide and volume modest.
Lebanon AFC Qualifying Race
Lebanon's relevant competition is the AFC qualification ladder, where the team has historically had to grind through second and third rounds rather than cruise. The 2026 World Cup cycle ended in elimination before the final Asian rounds, a result the markets had largely priced in given the FIFA ranking gap. That outcome reflects a durable pattern: Lebanon is competitive enough to threaten draws and upsets against regional peers but rarely favored over the confederation's established qualifiers. For traders, the gap between Lebanon's roster strength and its on-paper results is narrow, which is why the markets price the team on the draw and fixture structure as much as on form. The race that matters is the scrap for the qualifying places behind the seeded nations.
What's Driving Lebanon Prediction Market Volume
Lebanon's prediction market volume is driven by the structural appeal of an underdog with a passionate, geographically dispersed fan base and recurring regional rivalries. The Cedars draw interest whenever a qualifying window opens or a derby-flavored fixture against Palestine, Syria, or Jordan lands on the calendar. The durable swing factors on the price are squad availability, the reliance on a small core of experienced names, and the specific qualifying draw, all of which can shift an advancement contract more than any single result. Forward catalysts cluster around AFC international windows and Asian Cup qualifying matches, the points on the calendar where Lebanon markets spike from thin to genuinely two-sided.
Historical Lebanon Tournament Context
Lebanon has never reached a FIFA World Cup, and the durable read on the team is that it remains a developing AFC side rather than a continental power. The Cedars have qualified for the AFC Asian Cup three times (2000, 2019, and 2023), reaching the group stage on each occasion, with the 2000 edition staged on home soil. Lebanon's first official international dates to 1940, and the team's FIFA ranking peaked at 77th in September 2018. That history frames how the market weights the current roster: Lebanon is a side that occasionally punches above its ranking in regional play but carries no realistic trophy expectation, which keeps its contracts firmly in longshot territory.