The Nebius acquisition 2027 market asks whether any entity signs an agreement to acquire Nebius Group, the AI-infrastructure spinout of the old Yandex, before the year is out. The twist in 2026 is that Nebius has been the buyer, closing three acquisitions of its own and lining up a $775M debt facility to fund expansion. The contract trades across roughly $8.0M in cumulative volume on Kalshi and Polymarket and resolves December 31, 2026. The live board above ranks the current Yes and No prices on both platforms.
Nebius is one of the more unusual names on any acquisition board, because through 2026 it has been the buyer far more often than the target. The rebranded remnant of Yandex's international business is now a Nasdaq-listed AI-infrastructure company that posted $582.3M of Q2 2026 revenue on August 12, 2026, up 454% year over year, and it has spent the year absorbing smaller AI firms rather than fielding offers for itself. The market prices a takeover as a long shot, and the last four months of company news explain most of why.
The question is narrow and binary. It does not ask whether Nebius is a good business or whether its stock rises. It asks one thing: does any entity enter into an agreement to acquire the company before the deadline. An announced deal counts even if it never closes, which lowers the bar from a completed transaction to a signed agreement. That distinction matters, because deal announcements and deal completions can sit months apart, and the market only needs the announcement.
What has changed since the spring is the direction of the deal flow. Nebius agreed to buy inference specialist Eigen AI on May 1, 2026 and closed that deal on June 10, 2026, adding to earlier 2026 purchases of Tavily and ClarifAI, and it was reported in April 2026 to be in talks to acquire Israeli model developer AI21 Labs after AI21's earlier negotiations with Nvidia ended without a deal. On July 17, 2026 the company lined up a roughly $775M senior secured debt facility to fund AI cloud expansion. A company financing its own build-out and consolidating smaller rivals is behaving like a consolidator, not a seller.
The August 12, 2026 results reinforced that read. AI cloud revenue reached $575M in the quarter, up 514% year over year, annualized run-rate revenue hit $3.0B, and management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance of $3.0B to $3.4B in revenue, $7B to $9B of exit ARR, and roughly 40% adjusted EBITDA margins. Shares jumped about 28% on the print. A company on that trajectory, with more than $9B of expected customer prepayments behind it, has both the cash and the leverage to stay independent through the resolution window.
The bull case for Yes has not disappeared. AI-infrastructure capacity is still the scarcest resource in the cycle, and a hyperscaler or chip vendor that wants instant GPU footprint may find buying a listed pure-play faster than building one. The resolution bar helps that case, since a single announced agreement settles the market regardless of whether the transaction ever closes. What the price says is that the market rates that path as real but unlikely.
The cross-platform read is worth checking before taking either side. Polymarket carries effectively all of the roughly $8.0M in cumulative volume on this question, while the Kalshi leg has traded only a few thousand dollars, so the two venues can sit a few cents apart without either quote being obviously wrong. The board above shows the current Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side, which is the fastest way to see how each venue reads the takeover odds today.
The market resolves on December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It settles Yes if credible reporting confirms that any entity has entered into an agreement to acquire Nebius Group by that deadline, and No otherwise. Mergers in which Nebius is subsumed by another entity also count toward a Yes. Acquisitions that Nebius itself makes do not count, including the Eigen AI deal completed on June 10, 2026, because the contract only pays on Nebius being the target. The primary source of truth is official information from the company and its leadership, with a consensus of credible reporting used as a backstop.
Nebius sits inside a cluster of corporate-control contracts that trade on the same logic. The closest comparison is the Perplexity AI acquisition odds, another AI name where the market weighs strategic demand against a team that wants to stay independent, and the GitLab acquisition odds run the same question on an established software target. For a takeover where the bidders are already public, see the Warner Brothers takeover odds. The 2027 IPO announcement odds track the opposite exit path, and the finance prediction markets hub collects the full set of acquisition, IPO, and corporate-event contracts.
Resolves Yes if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire Nebius Group by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and No otherwise. An announced agreement between Nebius and an acquiring entity qualifies for a Yes resolution regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed. Mergers in which Nebius is subsumed by another entity also count toward Yes. Acquisitions made by Nebius of other companies, such as the Eigen AI purchase completed on June 10, 2026, do not count, because the contract only pays on Nebius itself being acquired. The primary resolution source is official information from the company and its leadership, with a consensus of credible reporting used as a secondary source.
As of August 17, 2026 the Yes side trades at 10c on Kalshi and 5c on Polymarket, a cross-platform consensus near 7.5c. The live board above carries the current prices on both venues.
It resolves on December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It settles Yes if any entity enters an agreement to acquire Nebius Group by that deadline, and No otherwise.
The same Yes/No question is listed on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Polymarket carries effectively all of the roughly $8.0M in cumulative volume, while the Kalshi leg has traded only a few thousand dollars.
Any announced agreement for another entity to acquire Nebius Group counts, even if the deal never closes, and a merger in which Nebius is subsumed also settles Yes. Acquisitions Nebius itself makes, such as the Eigen AI deal completed on June 10, 2026, do not count.
Watch whether the reported AI21 Labs talks turn into another Nebius purchase rather than a sale, and watch how the company deploys the $775M facility announced on July 17, 2026. Both point away from Yes as the December 31, 2026 deadline approaches.