Live odds across daily temperature, precipitation, climate milestone, and extreme-weather markets tracked across prediction markets.
Weather prediction markets trade across 681 active contracts as of June 5, 2026, organized into four subcategories led by daily temperature, which alone carries 570 of those markets. Coverage spans high-temperature settlements for major US cities, precipitation and snowfall thresholds, climate milestones such as annual global-average records, and a developing extreme-weather book that includes hurricane and named-storm outcomes. Most contracts resolve on a short cycle against an official reading, with daily temperature markets settling the next day against NWS observations and seasonal contracts resolving against NOAA and NHC data once the window closes. The June 1 start of Atlantic hurricane season is the live catalyst, and the top-markets and movers widgets above show where each contract prices today.
Weather is one of the highest-turnover short-cycle categories on the board because most of its contracts resolve within a day or a season. Temperature is the deepest subcategory by a wide margin, with 570 active markets that settle daily against National Weather Service highs and lows for cities including New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Miami. Precipitation runs second with 79 contracts covering rainfall totals, snowfall thresholds, and rain-by-date questions. Climate carries 25 markets anchored by annual global-average-temperature records and hottest-year-on-record contracts, while the extreme-weather book tracks hurricane and named-storm outcomes. The live board above shows current pricing across all four subcategories.
What moves weather markets is the forecast cycle, not the news cycle. Daily temperature contracts reprice every time a new NWS model run shifts the expected high for a city, so the most catalyst-sensitive markets are the short-dated temperature and precipitation settlements that turn over each day. Seasonal contracts move on the longer arc: NOAA and NHC outlooks reset hurricane-season expectations, and Climate Prediction Center seasonal forecasts move temperature and precipitation books for months out. The biggest single-day moves cluster around model disagreement on storm tracks and heat waves. The live movers widget above shows the current biggest movers and exact cents rather than a snapshot that goes stale.
Weather suits prediction markets better than almost any other category because the questions are binary, the resolution sources are public and authoritative, and the cycle is fast enough to trade actively. A contract asks a clean yes-or-no question, such as whether a city's high exceeds a set threshold on a given day, and resolves against an NWS, NOAA, or NHC reading that anyone can verify. Cross-platform price discovery lets traders compare the implied probability of the same outcome across major platforms, and real-time updates mean the board reflects the latest model run rather than a forecast issued hours earlier. That combination of objective resolution and high settlement frequency is what makes weather a heavily-traded category.
Prediction Genius aggregates 681 active weather contracts across four subcategories as of June 5, 2026: temperature (570 markets), precipitation (79), climate milestones (25), and extreme-weather including hurricanes (7). Coverage spans daily city-high settlements, rainfall and snowfall thresholds, and annual climate records.
Daily temperature contracts structurally carry the most volume because they settle every day against National Weather Service readings for major US cities. Precipitation thresholds and seasonal climate records follow. The live board above shows current pricing across each subcategory.
Each contract resolves against an official reading from a public source. Daily temperature markets settle the next day against National Weather Service observations, precipitation markets against measured totals, and hurricane and climate contracts against NOAA, NHC, and Climate Prediction Center data once the window closes.
As of June 5, 2026, the deepest weather book is daily temperature, led by city-high settlement contracts for New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago. With Atlantic hurricane season open since June 1, named-storm-count markets are drawing rising volume. See the live top-markets widget above for the current leader and exact cents.
Pricing can diverge because platforms word resolution differently and carry different book depth, with one platform often deeper on daily temperature settlements and another tighter on seasonal hurricane contracts. Compare the implied probability of the same outcome across major platforms using the live board above.