| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Lions | +7.5 64% | O 63.5 51% | 34% | 34% Kalshi |
â–¶Stampeders | -7.5 36% | U 63.5 49% | 68% | 68% Kalshi |
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Calgary is the 68c home favorite over BC at 33c on Kalshi, and the read hangs on scoring. The Stampeders have put up 352 points in nine games, the most in the CFL, while the Lions have managed 214 in eight and sit last in the West at 3-5. BC arrives off a 27-24 home win over Hamilton on August 8, a game the market priced them at 77c to win, so this is a 44c repricing of the same roster in five days. Polymarket has no line on the game, so every number on the board above is a single-book Kalshi quote across the moneyline, a five-rung spread ladder and a total that pivots at 63.5 points.
Calgary at 68c and BC at 33c is the widest single-game gap either team has carried this season, and the two-line board sums to 101c, a 1c vig that leaves the vig-adjusted read at roughly 67% Calgary. The interesting part is the arc, not the level. BC was a 77c favorite at home against Hamilton on August 8 and delivered, winning 27-24. Five days later the market has them at 33c on the road. That 44c move is almost entirely venue and opponent quality rather than anything the Lions did wrong, and the board carries about $12.9K in cumulative volume across the moneyline, spread and total ladders.
The records understate how differently these two teams get to their point totals. Calgary is 4-5 through nine games with 352 points scored and 297 allowed, which is the most points scored by any team in the CFL and the second-most allowed in the West Division. That is 39.1 points per game for and 33.0 against, a combined 72.1 points per Stampeders game. BC is 3-5 through eight with 214 scored and 225 allowed, or 26.8 for and 28.1 against, a combined 54.9 per game. Two teams with nearly identical win totals are producing games that differ by 17 points of combined scoring.
The West Division table explains why this game carries weight beyond the single result. Saskatchewan leads at 6-2 with 12 points and Edmonton sits at 6-3 with 12. Winnipeg and Calgary are tied at 8 points, with Winnipeg 4-4 and Calgary 4-5, and BC is last at 3-5 with 6 points. A BC win pulls the Lions level with Calgary on points and keeps a crossover path realistic; a Calgary win pushes the Stampeders to 10 points and drops BC four back of the fourth-place spot with the schedule shortening. Montreal at 8-1 is the only team in either division that has separated.
These teams have already met once this season. Calgary went into Vancouver in Week 4 and won 41-33, a result consistent with the scoring profile above rather than a defensive struggle. Both sides cleared 33 points and the game finished at 74 combined, two above the Stampeders' season average. That head-to-head is the single most relevant data point on the board, and it argues for the total more than it argues for the moneyline.
The spread ladder is where the moneyline price gets tested. Calgary at -3.5 trades at 54c, Calgary at -6.5 at 41c, Calgary at -7.5 at 37c and Calgary at -13.5 at 27c. The step from -3.5 to -7.5 costs 17c, which is a wide gap for four points and reflects how much probability mass the book puts on a one-score Calgary win. A 68c moneyline with a -3.5 line at only 54c says the market expects Calgary to win more often than it expects Calgary to win comfortably, and the 27c on -13.5 is the tail the Stampeders' 58-point and 52-point outputs earlier in the season keep alive. The BC side of the ladder is thin, with the two deepest rungs at 6c and 1c, so treat those quotes as low-liquidity marks rather than clean probabilities.
The total is the most confident thing on this board. Over 49.5 trades at 88c, over 56.5 at 73c, over 63.5 at 51c, over 70.5 at 39c and over 77.5 at 22c. That puts the market's midpoint just under 64 combined points, which sits between BC's 54.9 per-game combined average and Calgary's 72.1. A total priced closer to the Stampeders' pace than the Lions' is a coherent read given the game is in Calgary and given the Week 4 meeting between these two finished at 74. The 88c on over 49.5 is effectively a statement that a defensive game here is a tail outcome.
Movement has been minimal in the tracked window. Calgary held at 68c across every snapshot in the intraday series, and BC ticked from 34c to 33c. Volume is lopsided toward the underdog side: the BC moneyline contract has taken $2.8K in cumulative volume against $157 on the Calgary side, which is the standard shape of a board where the favorite price is uncontroversial and the money that moves is looking for the return on the dog. The Calgary Stampeders hub and the BC Lions hub carry the rest of each team's active markets.
The game kicks off at 7:00 pm ET on August 13, 2026 at McMahon Stadium in Calgary, and every contract on this board settles once it goes final. The moneyline resolves to the team that wins; the spread rungs settle against the final margin; the total rungs settle against the combined score. There is no draw contract because the CFL plays overtime, so the moneyline is a clean two-way market. Expect settlement on Kalshi within a few hours of the final whistle.
Calgary scoring volume: 352 points in nine games is the highest total in the CFL and is what the 63.5 total and the 68c moneyline are both built on.
BC defensive rate: the Lions have allowed 225 points in eight games, 28.1 per game, better than Calgary's 33.0, and that is the case for the under side of the total more than for the BC moneyline.
The Week 4 result: Calgary won 41-33 in Vancouver, so the Stampeders have already beaten this opponent on the road with 41 points.
Spread ladder shape: the 17c step from Calgary -3.5 at 54c to -7.5 at 37c prices a narrow Calgary win as the single most likely outcome band.
West Division points: BC at 6 points is two behind Calgary and Winnipeg at 8, so the loser of this game takes a real hit to its crossover math with the season past the halfway mark.
Single-book liquidity: the entire board is Kalshi, and the deepest BC spread rungs at 6c and 1c carry thin volume, so the quoted price on those rungs is a weaker signal than the moneyline or total.
BC's previous game is on the board at Tiger-Cats vs Lions on August 8, which is the 77c price that makes this week's 33c so striking. Calgary's most recent listed board is Stampeders vs Argonauts on August 6. Season-long positioning trades on the CFL Grey Cup 2026 champion market, and the full slate of active games sits on the CFL league hub alongside the broader sports markets index.
Resolves to the team that wins the CFL Week 11 game between the BC Lions and the Calgary Stampeders at McMahon Stadium in Calgary on August 13, 2026, with kickoff scheduled for 7:00 pm ET. Moneyline contracts pay $1 per share for the winning side and $0 for the losing side, and because the CFL plays overtime there is no draw outcome. Spread contracts settle against the final margin, so Calgary at -3.5 pays only if the Stampeders win by four points or more, and total contracts settle against the combined final score of both teams. If the game is postponed, rescheduled outside the listed window or canceled, the platform's published CFL game rules govern void and refund handling. The board is listed on Kalshi only, with no Polymarket line on either side.
As of August 13, 2026, Calgary is the 68c favorite and BC is 33c on Kalshi. The two-side board sums to 101c, which puts the vig-adjusted implied probability at roughly 67% for Calgary and 33% for BC.
Calgary is favored at home. The Stampeders are 4-5 with 352 points scored, the most in the CFL, while BC is 3-5 and last in the West Division with 214 points in eight games. Calgary also won the Week 4 meeting 41-33 in Vancouver.
On August 13, 2026 the Kalshi ladder has Calgary -3.5 at 54c, -6.5 at 41c, -7.5 at 37c and -13.5 at 27c. The total pivots at 63.5 points, with over 63.5 at 51c, over 56.5 at 73c and over 70.5 at 39c.
This game trades on Kalshi only. Polymarket has no line on either side, so every price shown is a single-book quote covering the moneyline, the spread ladder and the total.
It resolves when the game goes final at McMahon Stadium in Calgary on August 13, 2026, with kickoff at 7:00 pm ET. Moneyline pays out on the winner, spread settles on the final margin and the total settles on the combined score.
Watch whether the Calgary moneyline holds at 68c into kickoff, since it was flat across every intraday snapshot while the BC side drew $2.8K in volume against $157 on Calgary. A move under 65c would signal the market is repricing BC's 27-24 win over Hamilton on August 8 as more meaningful.