| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Elks | +3.5 50% | O 57.5 54% | 35% | 35% Kalshi |
â–¶Alouettes | -3.5 50% | U 57.5 46% | 66% | 66% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Edmonton Elks | +3.5 | O 57.5 | 35% Kalshi | |
â–¶Montreal Alouettes | -3.5 | U 57.5 | 66% Kalshi |
No player props available for this game.
Montreal is the 66c home favorite over Edmonton at 35c on Kalshi, a vig-free 65% read backed by a 7-1 record, a five-game winning streak and a 4-0 home mark. The complication is that Edmonton is 6-2 and already beat Montreal 32-29 in overtime in Week 3, and the Alouettes play this one without four defensive starters. The moneyline has firmed 1c toward Montreal since opening at 65c while the Elks drifted from 37c to 35c. Kickoff is 3:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, August 8, 2026 at Percival Molson Memorial Stadium. This board trades on Kalshi only.
Montreal is 7-1 with the best record in the CFL and prices as the 66c favorite on Kalshi against an Edmonton team that is 6-2 and owns the head-to-head. That is the whole trade on this board: the Alouettes have the record, the home field and the market, and the Elks have the only result either side has posted against the other in 2026. Kickoff is 3:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, August 8, 2026 at Percival Molson Memorial Stadium in a Week 10 game that separates the two best records in the league.
Montreal is 7-1 through eight games under Jason Maas, 5-0 inside the East Division and 4-0 at home, riding a five-game winning streak that includes a 34-13 win at Ottawa in its most recent outing. Davis Alexander has the Alouettes averaging 34.1 points per game against 27.1 allowed, a plus-56 differential across eight games, and Montreal has scored 30 or more in seven of those eight. The lone blemish is Week 3, when Edmonton won 32-29 in overtime.
Edmonton is 6-2 under Mark Kilam with Cody Fajardo at quarterback, averaging 28.6 points and allowing 25.0. The two losses are a 36-24 defeat at BC and a 28-26 loss to Saskatchewan in the Elks' most recent game. The shape of Edmonton's season matters more than the record: five of eight games have been decided by six points or fewer, including both losses and three of the wins. This is a team that lives in the last three minutes.
The moneyline reads Montreal 66c, Edmonton 35c. The two sides sum to 101c, so the vig-free implied probabilities are roughly 65% Montreal and 35% Edmonton. That is a wider number than the per-game scoring gap justifies on its own. Montreal's premium is location, the 7-1 record and a market that has been paying up for the Alouettes all season, not a large edge in points scored and allowed.
Line movement has been one-directional and small. Montreal opened this cycle at 65c, traded down to 64c and sits at 66c. Edmonton opened at 37c and has drifted to 35c. That is a 2c shift toward the home side over roughly a day, and it happened in the same window in which Montreal's four-starter defensive injury list became public. The market either discounted the absences or was already priced for them.
The spread board is where the internal disagreement lives. Montreal at -3.5 trades at 50c, a literal coin flip, while the moneyline says Montreal wins about 65% of the time. Reconciled, the board is routing a large share of Montreal's win equity into one-score wins of three points or fewer. Montreal -6.5 is 44c and Montreal -7.5 is 37c, which puts the market's expected margin between 3.5 and 6.5 points.
Movement on the spread cuts against the moneyline. Montreal -6.5 has slid from 50c to 44c over the same window in which the moneyline firmed from 65c to 66c. Traders bought Montreal to win and sold Montreal to win comfortably at the same time. That is the standard signature of a defensive-injury adjustment: the favorite still wins, just by less.
The Edmonton side of the ladder is thinner. Edmonton -3.5 is 24c, Edmonton -6.5 is 18c and Edmonton -7.5 is 16c. Both 20.5 rungs sit at 17c, which is a symmetric untraded quote rather than a real read, and it is the one line on the board to ignore.
The total is the cleanest market here. The over at 57.5 points is 54c, so 57.5 is effectively the market's number, and the underlying data lands almost exactly on it. Montreal's eight games have averaged 61.3 combined points and Edmonton's have averaged 53.6, and the midpoint of those two is 57.4. The rest of the ladder is coherent: over 43.5 at 81c, over 50.5 at 74c, over 64.5 at 32c and over 71.5 at 23c. No rung is dislocated from its neighbors.
Montreal moved four defensive starters to the one-game injured list this week, and all four were non-participants in practice: defensive tackle Mustafa Johnson (knee), middle linebacker Geoffrey Cantin-Arku (adductor), strong-side linebacker Najee Murray (head) and boundary halfback Wesley Sutton (calf). Decarius Hawthorne, Micah Awe, Gemon Green and Faion Hicks replace them. That is a simultaneous hit to the interior front, the second level and the secondary, against the one offense that has already scored 32 on this defense in 2026.
Edmonton gets Nick Anderson and David Beard back for the trip. Fajardo's Elks have posted 40 and 36 in two of their last five games, so the ceiling is there when the offense is on schedule, and the Week 3 meeting proved the Elks can trade scores with Montreal for four quarters plus overtime.
The counterweight is that Montreal has not lost at home this season and has scored 30 or more in seven of eight games. In a league where possessions end in points at a high rate, a depleted defense does not settle the outcome by itself. The Alouettes remain the 42c favorite on the Grey Cup market, with Edmonton at 11c despite the better head-to-head and a comparable record, which is the same premium showing up on a longer horizon.
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game on Saturday, August 8, 2026 at Percival Molson Memorial Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 3:00 p.m. ET. Spread and total contracts settle against the official final score including overtime, so the Week 3 overtime precedent between these two teams is live for both. Settlement follows the CFL's official final, and Kalshi closes the contracts once that result posts.
The season-long version of this matchup trades on the CFL Grey Cup market, where Montreal is the 42c favorite and Edmonton sits at 11c. Team-level pricing and the rest of each club's schedule live on the Montreal Alouettes hub and the Edmonton Elks hub. For the full Week 10 slate and every other game board, the CFL league hub carries the complete set, including the Redblacks vs Roughriders board from the night before.
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the CFL Week 10 game between the Edmonton Elks and Montreal Alouettes at Percival Molson Memorial Stadium on Saturday, August 8, 2026, with kickoff scheduled for 3:00 p.m. ET. Each winning team contract pays $1 per share and the losing side settles at $0. Spread contracts settle against the final margin and total contracts against the combined final score, both including overtime, which is live here given these two teams already played an overtime game in Week 3. Settlement follows the official CFL final score. If the game is postponed and replayed on a later date, contracts follow the rescheduled result under the platform rules; if the game is canceled outright and not replayed, contracts void per Kalshi rules. This board is listed on Kalshi only, so there is no second-platform quote to reconcile.
As of August 8, 2026, Montreal is 66c and Edmonton is 35c on the Kalshi moneyline. Backing out the 1c overround, that is roughly 65% Montreal and 35% Edmonton.
Montreal is favored at home. The Alouettes are 7-1 with a five-game winning streak and are 4-0 at Percival Molson Memorial Stadium, while Edmonton is 6-2 and beat Montreal 32-29 in overtime in Week 3.
Montreal -3.5 trades at 50c and Montreal -6.5 at 44c, so the market expects a margin between 3.5 and 6.5 points. The total is 57.5 points with the over at 54c on August 8, 2026.
This game board is listed on Kalshi only, with roughly $3.4K in total volume across the moneyline, spread and total ladders. Polymarket has no matching contract for this CFL game.
It resolves on the official final score of the Saturday, August 8, 2026 game, kickoff 3:00 p.m. ET. Spread and total contracts include overtime, which matters here because these teams already played one overtime game in Week 3.
Watch whether the spread keeps decaying while the moneyline holds. Montreal -6.5 has gone from 50c to 44c while the moneyline firmed from 65c to 66c, the signature of the market pricing a narrower Alouettes win after four defensive starters were ruled out.