| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Redblacks | +7.5 48% | O 61.5 46% | 21%21% | 21% Kalshi |
â–¶Roughriders | -7.5 52% | U 61.5 54% | 79%80% | 80% Polymarket |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Ottawa Redblacks | +7.5 | O 61.5 | 21% Kalshi | |
â–¶Saskatchewan Roughriders | -7.5 | U 61.5 | 80% Polymarket |
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Saskatchewan is the largest favorite on the CFL board at 79.5c (79c Kalshi, 80c Polymarket) against Ottawa at 21c on both books, and the gap is earned: the Roughriders are 5-2-0 and second in the West, the Redblacks are 0-7-0 and last in the East with zero points. The caveat the price does not reflect is venue. Saskatchewan is 3-0-0 on the road and only 2-2-0 at Mosaic Stadium, where this game kicks off Friday, August 7, 2026.
Ottawa walks into Regina winless, and the moneyline says so. Saskatchewan trades at 79.5c across the two books (79c on Kalshi, 80c on Polymarket), roughly an 80% implied win probability, with Ottawa at 21c on both. That is the widest single-game moneyline on the CFL slate, and the season records back it: Saskatchewan sits 5-2-0 with 10 points, second in the West behind Edmonton at 6-2-0, while Ottawa is 0-7-0 with zero points, alone at the bottom of the East. The board carries roughly $8.0K in total volume across both platforms, which makes it a thin market by prediction-market standards but a cleanly paired one.
Saskatchewan enters as the defending Grey Cup champion, having beaten Montreal 25-17 in November 2025 for the franchise's fifth title. Corey Mace's team has not repeated at the same level, but a plus-37 point differential over seven games (232 points for, 195 against) is a real profile. The Roughriders have split their last two, losing 34-36 to Edmonton and then beating Edmonton 28-26 in the rematch, both one-score games against the division leader. Jack Coan has been the starter through the run.
Ottawa's 0-7-0 is uglier in the aggregate than in the details. The Redblacks have been outscored 247-166, a minus-81 differential and the worst mark in the league, but three of the seven losses came by five points or fewer: 35-37 at Montreal, 22-27 against Saskatchewan, and a 34-36 loss to Winnipeg that went four overtimes. The other four were not close, including 24-44 to Toronto, 17-40 to Edmonton, and 13-34 to Montreal in Week 9. Ryan Dinwiddie is in his first season running the program, and the roster has cycled quarterbacks with Bryson Barnes, McLeod Bethel-Thompson, and Jake Maier all on the depth chart.
The head-to-head is the number that argues against the price. Their Week 5 meeting was a 27-22 Saskatchewan win in Ottawa, a five-point game against a Redblacks team that was already winless. The venue split cuts the same direction: the Saskatchewan Roughriders are 3-0-0 away from Mosaic Stadium and 2-2-0 at home, so the two Saskatchewan losses this season have both come in front of their own crowd. A market pricing 80% for a home team that is .500 at home is leaning on the opponent's record, not the venue.
The spread ladder is Kalshi-only and prices the coin-flip margin right around a touchdown. Saskatchewan by more than 7.5 points sits at 52c, by more than 6.5 at 56c, and by more than 3.5 at 69c. The tail thins fast: Saskatchewan by more than 13.5 is 37c and by more than 20.5 is 12c, so the market gives a blowout roughly one chance in eight. Set that against the season differentials (Saskatchewan plus-5.3 per game, Ottawa minus-11.6 per game) and the 7.5-point rung reads conservative on paper, while the 27-22 head-to-head reads the other way. Both signals are live, which is why the 52c rung is priced where it is.
The total is the more interesting side. Over 47.5 points is 92c, Over 54.5 is 55c, and Over 61.5 is 46c, putting the market's implied combined total in the mid-50s. Ottawa's seven games have averaged 59.0 combined points and Saskatchewan's have averaged 61.0, both above where the ladder crosses even money. The ladder above 61.5 is thin and close to flat (Over 68.5 at 44c, Over 75.5 at 36c), which is a liquidity artifact on an $8.0K board rather than a real read on the tail, so the actionable rungs are 54.5 and 61.5.
Cross-platform, there is nothing to arbitrage here. Kalshi and Polymarket sit within 1c on the moneyline (79c vs 80c on Saskatchewan, 21c vs 21c on Ottawa), and Polymarket does not carry the spread or total, so the alt markets are single-book. Line movement has been narrow: the Kalshi Saskatchewan price opened August 6 at 80c, ticked to 82c mid-morning, and drifted back to 79c by evening, a 79c to 82c band that is sitting at its low end into kickoff. The Polymarket Ottawa side held flat at 21c across the same window. This line has held, not moved.
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game at Mosaic Stadium in Regina on Friday, August 7, 2026. Spread and total contracts settle off the official final score. Both platforms settle after the league posts the official result, typically within hours of the final whistle, and postponement or cancellation is handled under each platform's published rules rather than by the scheduled date alone.
The season-long version of this trade is the CFL Grey Cup 2026 champion market, where Saskatchewan's title defense is priced against the full field. For team-level context on both sides, the Ottawa Redblacks hub tracks every Redblacks market and the CFL league page carries the rest of the Week 10 slate alongside the division futures. Broader gridiron pricing across leagues lives on the football markets hub.
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game between the Ottawa Redblacks and the Saskatchewan Roughriders at Mosaic Stadium in Regina on Friday, August 7, 2026. Each winning contract pays $1 per share and the losing side resolves to $0. Spread contracts settle on the final margin of victory and total contracts settle on the combined final score, both taken from the official league result. Kalshi and Polymarket settle after the official final score is posted, which is normally within hours of the final whistle. If the game is postponed, suspended, or canceled, settlement follows each platform's published rules for that event rather than the originally scheduled date.
As of August 7, 2026, Saskatchewan is 79.5c on the merged moneyline (79c on Kalshi, 80c on Polymarket) and Ottawa is 21c on both platforms. That is roughly an 80% implied win probability for the Roughriders.
Saskatchewan, by the widest margin on the CFL board. The Roughriders are 5-2-0 and second in the West Division, while Ottawa is 0-7-0 and last in the East with zero points through seven games.
The moneyline trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket at nearly identical prices, within 1c of each other. The spread ladder and the points total are Kalshi-only, so those alt markets are single-book.
Saskatchewan by more than 7.5 points prices at 52c, the coin-flip rung, with more than 3.5 points at 69c. On the total, Over 54.5 points is 55c and Over 61.5 is 46c, implying a combined score in the mid-50s.
At the final whistle on Friday, August 7, 2026 at Mosaic Stadium in Regina. Both platforms settle the moneyline, spread, and total once the official final score is posted, typically within hours of the game ending.
Whether the 79c to 82c Saskatchewan band breaks at the low end, given the Roughriders are 2-2-0 at home and won the Week 5 meeting by only 5 points, 27-22. The thin total ladder above 61.5 is the other spot to check for late liquidity.