Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots Prediction Market Odds, September 20, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Steelers | +5.5 51%51% | O 41.5 50%51% | 33%32% | 33% Kalshi |
â–¶Patriots | -5.5 49%49% | U 41.5 50%49% | 69%69% | 69% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Pittsburgh Steelers | +5.5 | O 41.5 | 33% Kalshi | |
â–¶New England Patriots | -5.5 | U 41.5 | 69% Kalshi |
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New England (0-1) is roughly a two-to-one home favorite over Pittsburgh (1-0) despite losing its opener 13-10 at Seattle. Kalshi and Polymarket agree within a point on the moneyline, the spread ladder centers on about a five-point Patriots margin, and the total implies about 42 points. The money leans the other way: Kalshi's Steelers leg holds $180.9K against $72.7K on New England.
New England is the home favorite in Week 2 despite being the only one of these two teams without a win. The Patriots opened the season with a 13-10 loss at Lumen Field, a Super Bowl rematch in which Seattle intercepted Drake Maye three times. Pittsburgh (1-0) beat Atlanta 20-13 at Acrisure Stadium on Sunday, sealed by a late T.J. Watt pick-six. The market prices New England (0-1) near two-to-one anyway, and the board has taken about $361K in lifetime volume ahead of the 1:00 PM ET kickoff on CBS at Gillette Stadium.
Steelers vs Patriots Moneyline Read
As of September 16, New England is 69% on both Kalshi and Polymarket, and Pittsburgh is 33% on Kalshi and 32% on Polymarket. The two books agree within a point on each leg, so there is no cross-platform price edge on the winner. Kalshi's legs sum to 102 and Polymarket's to 101; removing that margin leaves the Patriots near 68% and the Steelers near 32%. ESPN's matchup predictor lands in the same place at 66.7% for New England.
The money runs the other way. On Kalshi, the Pittsburgh leg has taken $180.9K against $72.7K on New England, so the underdog carries well over half of the board's lifetime volume. The price has not followed it: the Patriots remain the clear favorite in both books.
What the Spread and Total Imply
The full-game spread ladder centers on about a five-point Patriots margin. New England -4.5 trades at 52% on both books and -5.5 at 49% on both, with -3.5 at 55% and -6.5 at 45% on Kalshi (46% on Polymarket). The -5.5 rung is the most-traded spread contract on the board at $31.8K. On the other side, Pittsburgh -1.5 (an outright Steelers win by two or more) is 29% on Kalshi and 28% on Polymarket.
The total implies about 42 points. Over 41.5 is 51% and over 42.5 is 46%, identical on both books, with over 44.5 at 41% on Kalshi and 40% on Polymarket. Kalshi's team totals split that number roughly 24 to 18: New England over 23.5 is 51% and over 24.5 is 46%, while Pittsburgh over 17.5 is 50% and over 20.5 is 39% (37% on Polymarket). Week 1 fits a low number. The two teams combined for 30 points in their openers, 10 by New England and 20 by Pittsburgh, including a Steelers defensive touchdown.
Kalshi's first-half total sits at 50% for over 20.5 points, about half of the full-game number.
The Matchup the Market Is Pricing
The Patriots' question is ball security. Maye finished the opener 23 of 33 for 178 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions, and Rhamondre Stevenson ran 18 times for 51 yards. A 69% favorite after that line says the market is reading the Seattle loss as turnover noise rather than a verdict on the offense.
Pittsburgh won without much offense either. Aaron Rodgers went 24 of 40 for 221 yards and a touchdown, Jaylen Warren led the ground game with 46 yards on 10 carries, and Watt recorded two sacks plus the interception return that decided the game. The Steelers' case on this board rests on the pass rush forcing the same mistakes Seattle did.
ESPN's injury listing as of September 16 tags five Patriots as Questionable: cornerback Carlton Davis III (neck), linebacker Robert Spillane (knee), defensive end Dre'Mont Jones (foot), tackle Dametrious Crownover (knee) and center Ben Brown (knee). Spillane led New England with 8 tackles in the opener and Jones had its only sack. For Pittsburgh, cornerback Joey Porter Jr. (undisclosed), receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (foot) and tackle Troy Fautanu (ankle) are Questionable, and safety DeShon Elliott and tackle Jack Driscoll are on injured reserve. Pittman led the Steelers with 58 receiving yards in Week 1. Official game statuses come later in the week.
Line Movement
This board carries no snapshot history yet for this game, so there is no captured open-to-now move to report. The prices above are the September 16 read; the live board at the top of the page carries the current numbers.
Related
Follow both teams on the New England Patriots hub and the Pittsburgh Steelers hub, see every league market on the NFL page, and find the rest of the week's slate on today's NFL board.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to the team that wins the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots, scheduled for Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough and broadcast on CBS. The moneyline contract for the winning team pays out and the losing side settles at zero. Spread and total contracts settle against the final score, including any overtime, and every rung on this board is a half point, so none of them can push. First-half contracts settle on the score at halftime. Kalshi and Polymarket settle once the game goes final on the scheduled date. If the game is postponed, contracts follow each platform's rules for rescheduled events.
Key Factors
- Drake Maye threw three interceptions in New England's 13-10 Week 1 loss at Seattle
- T.J. Watt's two sacks and late pick-six decided Pittsburgh's 20-13 win over Atlanta
- Spread ladder centers on about five points: New England -4.5 at 52% and -5.5 at 49% on both books
- Total crossover near 42, with the two teams combining for 30 points in Week 1
- Kalshi volume leans to the underdog: $180.9K on Pittsburgh against $72.7K on New England
- Questionable tags as of September 16 on Patriots LB Robert Spillane and DE Dre'Mont Jones, and Steelers WR Michael Pittman Jr.
What are the current Steelers vs Patriots odds?
As of September 16, 2026, New England is 69% to win on both Kalshi and Polymarket, and Pittsburgh is 33% on Kalshi and 32% on Polymarket. After removing the market margin, the Patriots are near 68% and the Steelers near 32%. The live board above carries the current prices.
What is the Steelers vs Patriots spread on prediction markets?
As of September 16, New England -4.5 trades at 52% and -5.5 at 49% on both Kalshi and Polymarket, which puts the market's median Patriots margin at about five points.
What total is the market pricing for Steelers vs Patriots?
About 42 points. As of September 16, over 41.5 is 51% and over 42.5 is 46% on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
When and where is Steelers vs Patriots?
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET at Gillette Stadium, broadcast on CBS. It is an NFL Week 2 game in the Sunday early window.
What are the teams' records coming in?
Pittsburgh is 1-0 after beating Atlanta 20-13 at home. New England is 0-1 after losing 13-10 at Seattle in the season opener.
When does the Steelers vs Patriots market resolve?
The moneyline, spread and total contracts settle on the final score once the game goes final on September 20, 2026. Kalshi and Polymarket both list the game.