Economics11 ThresholdsFutures

Fed Rate Decision Dec 2026

Current Leader

Hold (no change)58%

Hike 25 bps at 31%(+27pt lead)

$119K volume11 thresholdsKalshi136d until resolution

Market ForecastChance by threshold

Market line4· the 50% crossing

Chance of reaching each threshold · the curve crosses 50% at the market's central line

Threshold Board11 thresholds

ThresholdChanceYesNo

>2.75Kalshi

97%97%3%

>3.00Kalshi

97%97%3%

>3.25Kalshi

95%95%5%

>3.50Kalshi

84%84%16%

>3.75Kalshi

68%68%32%

>4.00lineKalshi

45%45%55%

>4.25Kalshi

12%12%88%

>4.50Kalshi

5%5%95%

>4.75Kalshi

4%4%96%

>5.00Kalshi

2%2%98%

>5.25Kalshi

2%2%98%

Analysis

Analysis content will be generated by the pipeline.

Timeline

Market Created

Jul 27

We Are Here

Jul 27

Resolution

Dec 9

⚠Informational content only. Not financial or betting advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss.

Market Overview

Total Volume$119K

Candidates5

PlatformsKalshi

Days Left136

LeaderHold (no change)

Leader Spread27pt

ResolutionDecember 9, 2026

Resolves In

135

DAYS

HRS

MIN

December 9, 2026

Top Movers7D

Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

29% → 45%

↑ +16%

Fed decision in Dec 2026?: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Hike 25bps

23% → 31%

↑ +8%

Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

60% → 68%

↑ +8%

Fed decision in Dec 2026?: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Fed maintains rate

63% → 58%

↓ -5%

Fed decision in Dec 2026?: Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Cut >25bps

7% → 2%

↓ -5%

Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

10% → 5%

↓ -5%

Fed Rate Decision Dec 2026

Current Leader

Hold (no change)58%

Hike 25 bps at 31%(+27pt lead)

$119K volume11 thresholdsKalshi136d until resolution

Market ForecastChance by threshold

Market line4· the 50% crossing

Chance of reaching each threshold · the curve crosses 50% at the market's central line

Threshold Board11 thresholds

ThresholdChanceYesNo

>2.75Kalshi

97%97%3%

>3.00Kalshi

97%97%3%

>3.25Kalshi

95%95%5%

>3.50Kalshi

84%84%16%

>3.75Kalshi

68%68%32%

>4.00lineKalshi

45%45%55%

>4.25Kalshi

12%12%88%

>4.50Kalshi

5%5%95%

>4.75Kalshi

4%4%96%

>5.00Kalshi

2%2%98%

>5.25Kalshi

2%2%98%

Analysis

Analysis content will be generated by the pipeline.

Timeline

Market Created

Jul 27

We Are Here

Jul 27

Resolution

Dec 9

⚠Informational content only. Not financial or betting advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss.

Market Overview

Total Volume$119K

Candidates5

PlatformsKalshi

Days Left136

LeaderHold (no change)

Leader Spread27pt

ResolutionDecember 9, 2026

Resolves In

135

DAYS

HRS

MIN

December 9, 2026

Top Movers7D

Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

29% → 45%

↑ +16%

Fed decision in Dec 2026?: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Hike 25bps

23% → 31%

↑ +8%

Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

60% → 68%

↑ +8%

Fed decision in Dec 2026?: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Fed maintains rate

63% → 58%

↓ -5%

Fed decision in Dec 2026?: Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Cut >25bps

7% → 2%

↓ -5%

Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

10% → 5%

↓ -5%